Democratic WV primary + NE fake contest results thread (1st polls close @7:30ET)

[Xing]

Honestly, that map makes Ohio stand out just as much. I still don't get why Sanders collapsed so badly in Ohio. I mean, I'm not saying he should've won it, but if demographics really are destiny, he probably should've only lost it by 3-4%.

[Maxwell]

Honestly, that map makes Ohio stand out just as much. I still don't get why Sanders collapsed so badly in Ohio. I mean, I'm not saying he should've won it, but if demographics really are destiny, he probably should've only lost it by 3-4%.

Hillary winning Youngstown, Ohio was a pretty bad sign for him. I also don't think the economic situation is as dire even in those areas of Ohio as it is in West Virginia.

[Eraserhead]

Clinton 53% - Sanders 47% in FAKENE.

[IceSpear]

Honestly, that map makes Ohio stand out just as much. I still don't get why Sanders collapsed so badly in Ohio. I mean, I'm not saying he should've won it, but if demographics really are destiny, he probably should've only lost it by 3-4%.

Looks like the theory about a lot of his voters crossing over for Kasich was true. On top of that, a lot of his would-be supporters in coal country likely crossed over for Trump.

[cinyc]

Farrell is at 14% in WV-3.  Can he crack 15%?  If so, would he pick up a delegate?

He's at 13.508%, which just barely rounds up to 14%. It would be a stretch for him to make up an extra percent and a half with 78% reporting.

With 88% reporting, he's up to 13.595%. Not quite enough.

Yeah, McDowell County didn't turn out as much for Farrell as it would have had to for him to pick up a delegate.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Farrell beats Hillary for 2nd place in Mingo county.

[IceSpear]

Despite trailing, Bernie is currently getting more votes in Nebraska than both he and Hillary got combined in the caucus.

[Averroës Nix]

Honestly, that map makes Ohio stand out just as much. I still don't get why Sanders collapsed so badly in Ohio. I mean, I'm not saying he should've won it, but if demographics really are destiny, he probably should've only lost it by 3-4%.

Yes, while there are other relevant factors esp. wrt voting rules and local party strength, the most obvious distortion in the Democratic map in this part of the country is that the Ohio Republican primary attracted a lot of voters who would have voted in the Democratic contest in most other states.

[Eraserhead]

Honestly, that map makes Ohio stand out just as much. I still don't get why Sanders collapsed so badly in Ohio. I mean, I'm not saying he should've won it, but if demographics really are destiny, he probably should've only lost it by 3-4%.

Some people say Pennsylvania helps to explain it but I disagree. PA had a closed primary (unlike Ohio) and Clinton has some pretty explicit ties to the state. Even so Sanders still ended up doing better in PA than he did in Ohio. Very strange.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I kind of want one of the 3 completely out WV counties to go for Clinton just to see Icespear's reaction.

[IceSpear]

I kind of want one of the 3 completely out WV counties to go for Clinton just to see Icespear's reaction.

I actually didn't think there would be a county sweep. I figured she'd win Jefferson and Kanawha at least, and maybe a couple other random ones. It was a pleasant surprise rather than an expectation, so I wouldn't be too disappointed.

[Xing]

Despite trailing, Bernie is currently getting more votes in Nebraska than both he and Hillary got combined in the caucus.

Are those actual votes in the caucus, though? Usually, with caucuses, they count county delegates, not raw votes. A lot of people made that mistake in WA, where hundreds of thousands of people voted, but some people floated the argument that it was only 27,000, because WA counts district delegates instead of votes.

[IceSpear]

Despite trailing, Bernie is currently getting more votes in Nebraska than both he and Hillary got combined in the caucus.

Are those actual votes in the caucus, though? Usually, with caucuses, they count county delegates, not raw votes. A lot of people made that mistake in WA, where hundreds of thousands of people voted, but some people floated the argument that it was only 27,000, because WA counts district delegates instead of votes.

They're actual votes. Iowa, Nevada, Maine, Washington, and Wyoming were the ones that didn't release a popular vote total, according to Wikipedia.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With 98% of the vote in for the beauty contest, Clinton 53-47 appears to be the final margin. The main thing that's out is Nuckolls County, but it's very rural.

[Xing]

Despite trailing, Bernie is currently getting more votes in Nebraska than both he and Hillary got combined in the caucus.

Are those actual votes in the caucus, though? Usually, with caucuses, they count county delegates, not raw votes. A lot of people made that mistake in WA, where hundreds of thousands of people voted, but some people floated the argument that it was only 27,000, because WA counts district delegates instead of votes.

They're actual votes. Iowa, Nevada, Maine, Washington, and Wyoming were the ones that didn't release a popular vote total, according to Wikipedia.

I see. Well, if that's the case, Hillary's margin of victory in the primary in terms of actual votes looks like it'll be pretty much identical to Sanders' in the caucus. I'd definitely bet on Sanders winning the beauty contest in WA, since WA was a far more substantial win for him, but it'll probably be by 5-10%.

[IceSpear]

Despite trailing, Bernie is currently getting more votes in Nebraska than both he and Hillary got combined in the caucus.

Are those actual votes in the caucus, though? Usually, with caucuses, they count county delegates, not raw votes. A lot of people made that mistake in WA, where hundreds of thousands of people voted, but some people floated the argument that it was only 27,000, because WA counts district delegates instead of votes.

They're actual votes. Iowa, Nevada, Maine, Washington, and Wyoming were the ones that didn't release a popular vote total, according to Wikipedia.

I see. Well, if that's the case, Hillary's margin of victory in the primary in terms of actual votes looks like it'll be pretty much identical to Sanders' in the caucus. I'd definitely bet on Sanders winning the beauty contest in WA, since WA was a far more substantial win for him, but it'll probably be by 5-10%.

On that note, Washington in particular not releasing a popular vote hurts him pretty bad in the PV count. The others are too small to really matter much.

[Xing]

Despite trailing, Bernie is currently getting more votes in Nebraska than both he and Hillary got combined in the caucus.

Are those actual votes in the caucus, though? Usually, with caucuses, they count county delegates, not raw votes. A lot of people made that mistake in WA, where hundreds of thousands of people voted, but some people floated the argument that it was only 27,000, because WA counts district delegates instead of votes.

They're actual votes. Iowa, Nevada, Maine, Washington, and Wyoming were the ones that didn't release a popular vote total, according to Wikipedia.

I see. Well, if that's the case, Hillary's margin of victory in the primary in terms of actual votes looks like it'll be pretty much identical to Sanders' in the caucus. I'd definitely bet on Sanders winning the beauty contest in WA, since WA was a far more substantial win for him, but it'll probably be by 5-10%.

On that note, Washington in particular not releasing a popular vote hurts him pretty bad in the PV count. The others are too small to really matter much.

Yeah, that could be another argument for switching to primaries. The way district caucuses divvy up delegates sometimes involves some messy math.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Hillary's final win margin in the beauty contest is 5,010 votes.

[Xing]

Benchmark is predicting Hillary wins in a squeaker in OR. LOL, looks like they're looking into the NE beauty contest a little too much.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sabato's model said Sanders +8 for Oregon. Take it with a grain of salt since they predicted WV would be decided by less than 1 point.

[Holmes]

Benchmark is predicting Hillary wins in a squeaker in OR. LOL, looks like they're looking into the NE beauty contest a little too much.

On Twitter, they said that they put that Clinton +14 outlier poll into consideration in their model, so that's probably why.

[Xing]

Sabato's model said Sanders +8 for Oregon. Take it with a grain of salt since they predicted WV would be decided by less than 1 point.

Sabato's model will be more accurate for OR, then, though I think OR will still be a double-digit win for Sanders. Benchmark Politics really should factor in ideology. OR Democrats are very progressive, which means even older voters won't be that hostile to him, even though he'll probably lose somewhat narrowly among those 65 and older.

[Lachi]

The final county to report, mineral county, gives Bernie Sanders the sweep of West Virginia.

Source: New York Times

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The final county to report, mineral county, gives Bernie Sanders the sweep of West Virginia.

Source: New York Times

Only 6/30 precincts from Mineral county are in though. Sanders is ahead by less than 50 votes.

[IceSpear]

The final county to report, mineral county, gives Bernie Sanders the sweep of West Virginia.

Source: New York Times