Ireland Election 2007

[Јas]

New poll published today from TNS mrbi/Irish Times.
Conducted last Tuesday & Wednesday, sample 1000, MOE 3%.

Headline figures:
(Change since 27 April)
FF 36 (+2)
FG 28 (-3)
Lab 13 (+3)
PD 2 (-1)
Green 5 (-1)
SF 10 (0)
Others 6 (0)

Note these are adjusted figures as TNS mrbi (and most other polling companies) have traditionally overstated FF support, largely at FG's expense.

The core data was as follows:
FF 35 (+3)
FG 22 (-1)
Lab 10 (+3)
PD 1 (-1)
Green 4 (0)
SF 8 (0)
Others 5 (0)
Undecided 15 (-4)

The headline numbers are achieved through removing undecideds and the application of whatever formulae they use to adjust for oversampling FF.

Satisfaction Ratings
Leader (Party): Satisfied-Dissatisfied-No opinion (Change in Satisfied)
Ahern (FF): 54-40-6 (+1)
Kenny (FG): 47-30-23 (+6)
Rabitte (Lab): 50-27-23 (+2)
McDowell (PD): 34-50-16 (+2)
Sargent (Green): 42-21-37 (-1)
Adams (SF): 51-24-25 (+5)

Government Satisfaction: 47 (+4)

Preferred Coalitions
Q: Which of these possible coalitions would you like to see forming the next government?
FF & PD: 36 (+1)
FG, Lab & possibly the Greens: 38 (+2)
NOTA: 13 (-2)
Don't Know: 13 (-1)

Q: Which one of these possible coalitions do you think is most likely to form the next government?
FF & PD: 34 (-7)
FG, Lab & possibly the Greens: 35 (+12)
NOTA: 10 (-1)
Don't Know: 21 (-4)

Q: Which of these possible coalitions would you prefer to see forming the next government?
FF & Lab: 19 (0)
FF & PD: 14 (-2)
FF & Green: 10 (+1)
FF & SF: 10 (0)
FF & FG: 8 (-1)
Don't know: 39 (+2)

Bertiegate
Q: Taoiseach Bertie Ahern stated in an RTE interview last September that he had given the full picture about his finances. In light of recent disclosures regarding his finances, do you believe he has given the full picture about his personal finances or does he have further questions to answer?
Has given the full picture: 17
Has further questions to answe: 72
Don't know: 11

Q: From what you are aware of the new disclosures, do you believe that the question of Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's finances is a serious issue in the general election campaign or not?
Serious Issue: 50
Not a serious issue: 43
Don't Know: 7

Q: Do you believe that Taoiseach Bertie Ahern should make a full public statement clarifying his finances during the general election campaign or should he wait until he goes to the Mahon Tribunal after the election?
During campaign: 59
At tribunal: 32
Don't Know: 9

[Јas]

Another new poll by Red C/Sunday Business Post.
Sample size: 1200

(Change on last week)
FF 35 (-2)
FG 29 (+3)
Lab 12 (0)
PD 3 (+1)
Green 6 (-2)
SF 7 (-1)
Other 8 (+1)

[Јas]

Another day, another poll. This time a poll for the Irish Independent by Millard Brown/IMS

(Change on 22 April)
FF 35 (-3)
FG 26 (+3)
Lab 13 (+1)
PD 3 (-1)
Green 5 (-1)
SF 10 (+2)
Others 8 (0)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there a chance that Fianna Fail might actually lose the election? (as opposed to losing power afterwards).

[Јas]

Is there a chance that Fianna Fail might actually lose the election? (as opposed to losing power afterwards).

As in not return as the largest party?

No, not really - unless something very significant occurs in the next week. (That said, there will be a televised debate between Ahern and Kenny this Thursday - though this will hold nowhere close to the significance such debates have in the US. If 2002 for example, Noonan (FG) was widely seen as the winner in the debate - but FG went on to face massive electoral punishment.)

The most optimistic FG predictions put them in the high 50's with FF down to the very low 60's. It would be really astonishing if FG became the largest party.

[minionofmidas]

An FG takeover of FF would probably happen in the no. of seats slightly before it would happen in the aggregate first preference vote?

[Democratic Hawk]

The most optimistic FG predictions put them in the high 50's with FF down to the very low 60's. It would be really astonishing if FG became the largest party.

Has FG ever been the larger of the two in the Dail?

Dave

[Kevinstat]

The most optimistic FG predictions put them in the high 50's with FF down to the very low 60's. It would be really astonishing if FG became the largest party.

Has FG ever been the larger of the two in the Dail?

Dave

Not since they became Fine Gael is what I reckon from prior posts on this thread.

[Јas]

An FG takeover of FF would probably happen in the no. of seats slightly before it would happen in the aggregate first preference vote?

Yes, probably true - I'd say the respective strengths and possible seat returns in Dublin for the two would be significant if it happened; as well as FG being more transfer friendly outside Dublin from the smaller parties.

Though I suppose there's no way to know for sure until it happened.

The most optimistic FG predictions put them in the high 50's with FF down to the very low 60's. It would be really astonishing if FG became the largest party.

Has FG ever been the larger of the two in the Dail?

Dave

FF have been the largest party in the Dáil since the 1932 General, five years after their official formation.

FG was founed the next year by an amalgamation of three parties, the largest of which (Cumman na nGaedheal) had been the largest party and in power from 1922-32.

[Јas]

The last chance for the Sundays to publish polls before Thursday's election, so two polls out today. But just to give some detail on the week gone by...

The major events this week were the two debates. On Wednesday night we had Rabbitte (Lab); Sargent (Green); McDowell (PD) and Adams (SF).
On Thursday, Ahern (FF) and Kenny (FG).

Debate one had McDowell making himself the focus of attention (e.g. in decscribing himself as being amongst the left, the far left and the left overs). He made great efforts to attack Adams as often as possible.

The Thursday debate was a fairly dull affair in comparison. Commentators varied between calling it an Ahern win or a draw. To my money, Ahern came across much better, but then also I don't think these debates matter a great deal.

Also this week, Ahern made a much publicised speech to a joint sitting of the British Houses of Parliament at Westminster - which seems to have gone down well. However the FF party political broadcast with Blair and Clinton praising Ahern hasn't - it seems to have played as unfair outside interference.

Speaking of party politicals, the Greens have produced a real gem of one. I've seen many such broadcasts in my time and never credited any as particularly worthy efforts. I must say I was really quite impressed with their effort. They also lucked out with it being broadcast just before the Thursday debate, giving them the biggest audience any party political is likely to get. Anyone interested can view the broadcast on youtube here.

And now, the polls...
First up, RedC/Sunday Business Post
[Sample: 1200]

(Change on last Sunday)
FF 36 (+1)
FG 27 (-2)
Lab 11 (-1)
PD 2 (-1)
Green 8 (+2)
SF 10 (+3)
Others 6 (-2)


And here's the other, from Millard Brown IMS/Sunday Independent
[Sample: 1000]

(Change on last Tuesday)
FF 37 (+2)
FG 25 (-1)
Lab 12 (-1)
PD 3 (0)
Green 5 (0)
SF 9 (-1)
Other 9 (+1)

[Verily]

On numbers like that, is it possible that the PDs will get wiped out?

[Јas]

New tns MRBI/Irish Times poll out today. Unlike the above polls this was carried out after both last week's debates. (The IMS one was done Mon & Tue; RedC was done Wed-Fri.)

[Sample: 1000]
[Undecideds: 15%]

(Change on 10 days ago)
FF 41 (+5) (!)
FG 27 (-1)
Lab 10 (-3)
PD 2 (0)
Green 6 (+1)
SF 9 (-1)
Other 5 (-1)


Satisfaction Ratings
[Leader (Party): Satisfied-Dissatisfied-No opinion (Change in Satisfieds)]
Ahern (FF): 58-38-8 (+4)
Kenny (FG): 48-28-24 (+1)
Rabbitte (Lab): 49-27-24 (-1)
McDowell (PD): 36-46-18 (+2)
Sargent (Green): 39-23-38 (-3)
Adams (SF): 49-27-24 (-2)

Q: Which of the following possible coalitions would you like to see forming the next government?
FF & PD: 42 (+6)
FG, Lab and possibly the Greens: 36 (+2)
NOTA 11 (-2)
Don't Know 11 (-2)

Q: Which of the following possible coalitions would you like to see forming the next government?
FF & Lab: 20 (+1)
FF & PD: 16 (+2)
FF & SF: 13 (+3)
FF & FG: 11 (+3)
FF & Green: 9 (-1)
Don't know: 31 (-8)


The Debate
Q: Which leader did you think performed better in the TV debate?
Ahern: 32
Kenny: 13
Neither/Same: 14
Don't know: 41

Q: Which of the leaders do you think would be better at the following?
[Issue: Ahern-Kenny]
Successfully managing the economy: 55-25
Representing the country well: 59-25
Keeping taxes low: 46-27
Improving public services: 40-37
Improving infrastructure and roads: 48-30
Providing affordable and good quality childcare: 34-38
Improving the health service: 31-42
Tackling crime: 37-35

[Јas]

On numbers like that, is it possible that the PDs will get wiped out?

It's certainly possible. There simply isn't a safe PD seat. While PD leader McDowell is officially predicting 11 (!!!), they would do exceptionally well to hold most of the 8 they have. Whatever about their first preferences, it seems that transfers are going to prove hard to come by for them. Most precictions place them anywhere from 0-4.

I'd say there's about a 1 in 3 chance of no PDs. As of now, I'd say that McDowell (Dublin SE) and Harney (Dublin MW) are the only two likely to get back. Though it wouldn't be a massive shock if they didn't.

[Harry Hayfield]

but my grandparent's video recorder has been on the blink recently so looking in the manual it said "If you are experiencing problems, reinstall usuing the Auto Install function", so I did and guess what I came up with?

ONLY RTE 1, RTE 2 and TG4!!!!

So as a result I will be recording RTE 1's election coverage and transferring it to DVD so that I can try and understand the electoral method that we may soon have here in Wales as part of any rainbow coalition deal.

[Јas]

but my grandparent's video recorder has been on the blink recently so looking in the manual it said "If you are experiencing problems, reinstall usuing the Auto Install function", so I did and guess what I came up with?

ONLY RTE 1, RTE 2 and TG4!!!!

So as a result I will be recording RTE 1's election coverage and transferring it to DVD so that I can try and understand the electoral method that we may soon have here in Wales as part of any rainbow coalition deal.

Congrats
The count will begin on Friday morning and there should be TV coverage throughout the day.

On Friday, RTÉ1 will have election coverage from 11am until 2.35a.m. Saturday morning, except between 1330 and 1420, and various ordinary news coverage.

As you may or may not have yet surmised, TG4 is an Irish language station. So while they will have 12 hours continuous election coverage from 2p.m., it will be almost exclusively as gaeilge  - except for those politicians they get a hold off who don't have a cúpla focail. So best of luck trying to learn from that.

On Saturday, RTÉ1 will resume with coverage from 1100-1500.
(TG4 will also be giving coverage from 1100-1400.)

Beyond that, standard news coverage will encompass whatever's left.
Finally to finish off the political weekend, on Sunday night, The Week in Politics (RTÉ1 2245-2340) may be of interest.

[Harry Hayfield]

Thank you very much indeed Jas, that's very useful indeed. In that case, could you advise me on the following:

Party Colours (for all parties likely to win seats)
Blank Constituency Maps (preferably 24bit BMP)
and any unusual terms I am likely to come across

[minionofmidas]

"a cúpla focail" being fluency in Irish?

[Јas]

Thank you very much indeed Jas, that's very useful indeed. In that case, could you advise me on the following:

Well, I'll certainly try...

Party Colours (for all parties likely to win seats)

When it comes to applying single colours to parties here, there is variance between how the different media outlets operate, particularly regarding the smaller parties.

However...
Fianna Fáil are always green;
Fine Gael are always dark/royal blue;
Labour are red;

but then...
Sinn Féin are either green or orange, I think orange is the growing concensus.
The Greens are usually either green (obviously enough) or brown.
The Progressive Democrats are either blue (sky) or yellow. Yellow is probably most popular.

The only other party likely to be returned is the Socialist party (2 seats max, both are marginal - Dub W & Dub N).

Any of the other parties taking a seat would be a big upset at this stage.

Blank Constituency Maps (preferably 24bit BMP)

I'll have to plead ignorance on the whole '24bit BMP' thing.

On maps, the best I've found are those that I've used as part of my constituency-by-constituency predictions in pages 3-5 of this thread.
They come in two forms, Dublin and non-Dublin.

For example, here's Louth:


and here's Dublin Central:

and any unusual terms I am likely to come across

Oh goodness, there really could be any amount of Irish verbacular words and phrases that could come up and I wouldn't necessarily bat an eyelid at them. I'll have to think about that one.

[Јas]

"a cúpla focail" being fluency in Irish?

Literally means "a couple of words".

It's a fairly often used phrase which can infers ability in Irish, though that ability may be anything from literally a few words to fluency (in the latter case it would be a more ironic use of the phrase).

TG4 often struggle to get people on news broadcasts and the like with a good standard of Irish, but prefer where possible to get someone who will try.

[Јas]

As it gets closer to the official opening of the polls, some have the opportunity to vote early. Postal voters (like myself: first General Election vote - ) should have already mailed their ballots; but also the traditional early voting on some of the islands around the coast has begun and in some cases ended. If Innisfree (off Donegal) proves a trendsetter turnout could be very high, as 5 of the 6 registered voters turned out.

But possibly the most interesting early polling situation was at the Central Mental Hospital (for the first time - because of a European Court of Human Rights ruling in 2005 apparantly) in Dublin South, where some 22 of the 29 eligible voters cast ballots.

Turnout is expected to be high anyway for a number of reasons, particularly the recent massive clean-up of the outdated register (a process not without considerable difficulties plaguing it) and the fact that the outcome is a genuine unknown and very competitive.

[Verily]

Just wondering: who do you support, Jas? I don't think I know.

[Јas]

Just wondering: who do you support, Jas? I don't think I know.

Just like my avatar says, I'm an Independent. I'm left-ish leaning (generally) and so am fairly predisposed to Labour and the Greens (who have impressed me most in this campaign), but there are members of pretty much all of the parties in the Dáil who I would vote for.

[Јas]

OK, just finished my last constituency-by-constiuency analysis (if you're interested they're on pages 3-5 of this thread).

Final Guestimation:
FF 68 (-11)
FG 47 (+15)
Lab 21 (0)
PD 3 (-5)
Green 9 (+3)
SF 10 (+5)
Soc 2 (+1)
Ind 6 (-8)

Poss. Coalitions (83 required)
FF/PD 71
FG/Lab/Green 77
FF/Green 77
FF/SF 78
FF/PD/Green 80
FF/Lab 89

[Јas]

For reasons known only to themselves, the polling company RedC have conducted a poll over Monday & Tuesday and published it online today.

The poll was apparantly made for the Sunday Business Post newspaper - but obviously they aren't publishing anything until Sunday when most results should be clear.

The poll details aren't broadcastable today due to the moratorium of electoral coverage the day before polling.

Anyhoo... these be the numbers (Adjusted for 8% Don't Knows):
(Change on Sunday)
FF 38 (+2)
FG 26 (-1)
Lab 11 (0)
PD 3 (+1)
Green 6 (-2)
SF 9 (-1)
Other 7 (+1)

The poll reaffirms the trend of FF gaining and Greens falling.
It also indicates that the tns MRBI poll on Monday giving a 5% bump to FF was excessive.

If anyone be interested the released details of the poll are viewable here.

[Јas]

For a fairly simple guide to how PR-STV operates here, here is an Irish Times article which briefly explains the process.