UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[afleitch]

PB.com on the implications of a UKIP win

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That site rots the brain. Try to wean yourself off it.

It's woeful. Subsample heaven.

Farage won't stand because he can't afford to come second. His leadership isn't secure and won't be until the party translates apparent support into genuine, top tier political results. While I expect the UKIP to perhaps best 7-10% on a good day at the GE, I still think it's more likely that Caroline Lucas will be returned in Brighton and for the Lib Dems to hold on in scores of seats they should otherwise loose than for UKIP to return a single MP.

[afleitch]

UKIP could end up eating itself over picking Helmer. He's not the best communicator in the world and as we've seen has opinions that you don't even hear down the pub anymore. The Tories haven't won a by-election in government since 1989, their chances here look better than they did when the by-election was called.

[afleitch]

Anything but a Tory hold will start alarm bells on the backbenchers, surely. This is a safe seat...

It would be the first Tory hold in a by-election while in government since 1989. Actually holding it is more out of the ordinary.

[afleitch]

[afleitch]

With the result being as it was, it probably lessens the chance of any more Tory MP's defecting. I doubt he will hold his seat come May.