Will the GOP win the Midterms of 2014 and the Election of 2016?

[milhouse24]

Would it be weird if the GOP is relegated to winning only the Midterm elections, because the "new" Democrat voters don't bother showing up for midterm elections?

The Republicans demolished the Democrats in 2010, and this may have led to false confidence for 2012. 

But its odd that these "new" Democrats - young voters, Black voters, and Latin voters won't support other Democrats if Obama is not on the Ballot. 

If the GOP wins and picks up seats in 2014, does that indicate any improvement for winning the presidential election of 2016?

[RogueBeaver]

You answered your own question. Not necessarily, as 1938, 1946, 1986, 1994 and now 2010 tell us. What encourages me is the pendulum and the quality of would-be candidates,

[President von Cat]

But its odd that these "new" Democrats - young voters, Black voters, and Latin voters won't support other Democrats if Obama is not on the Ballot.  

It isn't odd, it's a longstanding trend that those voter groups tend not to turn out in midterm elections.  It isn't some new phenomenon.

And I bet that those voters WILL support the Democrat during for the next presidential election, if Republican affiliated groups and leaders keeps up efforts to disenfranchise minority voters and demonize non-white folks. Every day Donald Trump gets on TV and harps about Obama's passports or whatever is one more day where the Republicans fail to break through to these key demographics.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

2014 is as predictive of 2016 as 2012 is of 2014. Or 2010 was of 2012.

[heatmaster]

That rule of thumb doesn't always apply, look at 1958, Democrats won big then and then they won the White House in 1960, you only have to look at 1966, it was a prelude to 1968, or 1974 which was a harbinger for 1976 or 1978 was a predilection for what occurred in 1980 and then what about 2006? the Democrats won the White House in 2008.  Then you can look at what happened in 1998, Democrats won seats in the House - first time since 1822, that the in-party won seats in the second term mid-terms - Republicans won the White House in 2000; so 2014 could be a repeat of 1998, any guesses what happens in 2016 under the circumstances I have just laid out? I say not, because what happens between now and the mid-terms is anybody's guess. 

[sg0508]

The GOP could make some gains in 2014; the map favors them and turnout will be weaker. 

2016 has nothing to do with 2014. 

[Mister Mets]

I'd say they're the favorites in both.

The party out of the White House historically does well in midterm elections, and there is the argument that midterm voters skew Republican, as they're older, whiter, richer than the voters who only show up for presidential elections.

In the last few Generations, there has been a tendency for American voters to replace the party in the White House after two terms.

[DC Al Fine]

They'll certainly gain seats in 2014. 2016 depends on a who's running and how well they do with Hispanics.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

About a 75% chance of the GOP gaining seats in the House in 2014 and maybe a 5% chance of the Dems regaining control of the House in 2014.  The last few election cycles have shown a bit of a disconnect on the usual mid-term trends, probably because of the overall decoupling of House and Presidential results.  2014 won't be merely the sixth year of Obama, it'll be the fourth year of a Republican-led House.

In the Senate, Landrieu (D-LA) and Pryor (D-AR) will vulnerable no matter what.  Baucus (D-MT), Begich (D-AK), Frankin (DFL-MN), Hagan (D-NC), Johnson (D-SD), Shaheen (D-NH), M. Udall (D-CO), and Warner (D-VA) depend largely on how the economy is doing.  Collins (RINO-ME) would be replaced by Democrat if she doesn't run again. Graham (R-SC) might get TP'd and then have the Democrats win, since I seriously doubt a non-kooky person would get into a primary fight with Graham.  (Altho that's probably why he's in such a boil over Rice right now so as to avoid a serious primary challenge.)  If Rockefeller (D-WV) retires, his seat is a likely GOP pickup, but if he runs, he should be able to keep it.  Anyway, I expect the GOP to gain anywhere from 1 to 9 seats in the Senate in 2014, with 3 as the most likely number, which isn't enough to take the Senate.

[Mehmentum]

In the Senate, Landrieu (D-LA) and Pryor (D-AR) will vulnerable no matter what.  Baucus (D-MT), Begich (D-AK), Frankin (DFL-MN), Hagan (D-NC), Johnson (D-SD), Shaheen (D-NH), M. Udall (D-CO), and Warner (D-VA) depend largely on how the economy is doing.  Collins (RINO-ME) would be replaced by Democrat if she doesn't run again. Graham (R-SC) might get TP'd and then have the Democrats win, since I seriously doubt a non-kooky person would get into a primary fight with Graham.  (Altho that's probably why he's in such a boil over Rice right now so as to avoid a serious primary challenge.)  If Rockefeller (D-WV) retires, his seat is a likely GOP pickup, but if he runs, he should be able to keep it.  Anyway, I expect the GOP to gain anywhere from 1 to 9 seats in the Senate in 2014, with 3 as the most likely number, which isn't enough to take the Senate.

There is no way that Warner will lose Virginia, he's so popular in that state that he's very much in live boy/dead girl territory.

I don't have any first hand experience with any of the others, but Pryor got 80% of the vote in 2008. He wasn't even challenged by a Republican, the Green party got the other 20% of the vote.

[Mr.Phips]

About a 75% chance of the GOP gaining seats in the House in 2014 and maybe a 5% chance of the Dems regaining control of the House in 2014.  The last few election cycles have shown a bit of a disconnect on the usual mid-term trends, probably because of the overall decoupling of House and Presidential results.  2014 won't be merely the sixth year of Obama, it'll be the fourth year of a Republican-led House.

In the Senate, Landrieu (D-LA) and Pryor (D-AR) will vulnerable no matter what.  Baucus (D-MT), Begich (D-AK), Frankin (DFL-MN), Hagan (D-NC), Johnson (D-SD), Shaheen (D-NH), M. Udall (D-CO), and Warner (D-VA) depend largely on how the economy is doing.  Collins (RINO-ME) would be replaced by Democrat if she doesn't run again. Graham (R-SC) might get TP'd and then have the Democrats win, since I seriously doubt a non-kooky person would get into a primary fight with Graham.  (Altho that's probably why he's in such a boil over Rice right now so as to avoid a serious primary challenge.)  If Rockefeller (D-WV) retires, his seat is a likely GOP pickup, but if he runs, he should be able to keep it.  Anyway, I expect the GOP to gain anywhere from 1 to 9 seats in the Senate in 2014, with 3 as the most likely number, which isn't enough to take the Senate.

There really arent many seats Republicans can gain in the House at this point.  Most of the weakest Democrats were knocked off in 2010 and the few seats Democrats picked up in 2012 are pretty favorable to them.

I will say that the SECOND midterm election is predictive of who will win the White House two years later, unlike the first.

For example, Democrats had a good 2006 midterm and that predicted them winning back the White House in 2008.

Democrats had a decent 2000 midterm and that predicted them holding the White House(absent the Florida debacle). 

In 1986, Republicans had a pretty good midterm outside of Senate races and they kept the WHite House in 1988. 

This goes back to the early 1900s. 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I don't have any first hand experience with any of the others, but Pryor got 80% of the vote in 2008. He wasn't even challenged by a Republican, the Green party got the other 20% of the vote.

That was 2008 when the GOP was at a low point nationally.  The GOP is certain to run someone in 2014, and Arkansas is quickly becoming a solid blue state.  That Green party vote in 2008 was almost all votes for someone who wasn't a Democrat, not votes for the Green party.

As for Warner, he was running against someone from the right edge of the GOP.  If the GOP runs someone better and 2014 is a better year over all for the GOP, Warner could be vulnerable.