NV-GHY/DSCC: Internal Democratic poll has Obama ahead by 5 (user search)
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  NV-GHY/DSCC: Internal Democratic poll has Obama ahead by 5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: NV-GHY/DSCC: Internal Democratic poll has Obama ahead by 5  (Read 3148 times)
NVGonzalez
antwnzrr
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,687
Mexico


« on: August 17, 2012, 05:06:09 PM »

The fact that Dems underpoll in Nevada should cancel out the fact that it's a partisan Dem poll, IMO.

Just wondering, why do dems tend to under poll?

Elderly latino voters who speak a small amount of English won't be telling people on the phone who they're voting for.

Basically this. Unless they feel very comfortable with the person they are talking to they will not tell. That only happens when they are face to face with someone and that efficiency will double with a fellow Latino. Something I am good with Smiley
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NVGonzalez
antwnzrr
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,687
Mexico


« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2012, 05:07:30 PM »

The fact that Dems underpoll in Nevada should cancel out the fact that it's a partisan Dem poll, IMO.

Just wondering, why do dems tend to under poll?

Elderly latino voters who speak a small amount of English won't be telling people on the phone who they're voting for.

Just curious. Any evidence (cites, etc) that Democrats "underpoll" in Nevada? Turnout in Nevada was R+4 in 2004, and as Umengus pointed out, D+8 in 2008. So where are we coming up with this "underpoll" thing (of course, besides your own personal speculation)?

/shrug. I know Reid overperforming the polls in 2010 against Angle fueled it, as he had a much better ground game than her. And I'm sure Obama's gonna have a much better ground game than Romney will in Nevada too, so.

The NV GOP is basically non-existent right now and the demographics has had a dramatic shift.
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