UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[Torrain]

So, um, update to our now ongoing feature - “Theresa May dances on Boris’s political grave”. When she turned up to Johnson’s confidence vote in a ball gown, I thought we’d hit the peak - but there’s more!

She’s been spotted celebrating today’s developments by literally dancing the night away at a techno concert in Henley - Johnson’s first constituency. Specifically, she’s really gotten into the song “ I Ain’t Felt Nothing Quite Like This.”

https://mobile.twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1545160078784970753
*Edit: Original tweet deleted, so here’s a mirror.*

And if you don’t believe me - here she is in a photo from the event, same night, same outfit, big smile.

[Progressive Pessimist]

So, where does Johnson rank compared to his two predecessors? I, for one, called both Cameron and May among the worst in British history, and I knew it wouldn't be long before he usurped them both for that title. Can the streak continue?

[AndyHogan14]

So, where does Johnson rank compared to his two predecessors? I, for one, called both Cameron and May among the worst in British history, and I knew it wouldn't be long before he usurped them both for that title. Can the streak continue?

Cameron is still the absolute worst. His Brexit Referendum gambit to shut up the Eurosceptics within the Tory Party put the UK on its current path. That's not to say that there should not have been a referendum (because, clearly, Brexit had/has widespread support), but there should have been a **plan** in case leave won.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://www.twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/1544962473815580673

Ah yes the same Economist who backed him in 2019 and - arguably even more unforgivably - told people to vote Tory in 2015 (along with the FT and, incredibly, the Independent)

We are still paying a big price for that latter folly, and will do so for a while yet.

They endorsed the lib Dems in 2019 and the FT didn't endorse anyone

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/TulipSiddiq/status/1545080985355780096

Was looking at the local by-elections for Thursday to see if anything interesting happened and this popped up.  They don't count the votes until Friday AM.  Kind of a confusing locale.  In the May election the voters filled two seats, one Con and one Labor won, however the Labor candidate was a paper candidate as Labor had never won in anything approximating this jurisdiction.  The Labor candidate felt he had work obligations that prevented him from serving on council so he resigned immediately hence the by-election.  And according to Andrew's preview, the bookies say the LD candidate is the favorite . 

As for the other local by-elections on Thursday, there was only one Con defense and they lost, in fact finished 3rd behind the Greens and LD (even with UKIP standing down).  Labor almost lost a seat to the Greens and Labor won a seat from an Indy.   

[Oryxslayer]

So, where does Johnson rank compared to his two predecessors? I, for one, called both Cameron and May among the worst in British history, and I knew it wouldn't be long before he usurped them both for that title. Can the streak continue?

Cameron is still the absolute worst. His Brexit Referendum gambit to shut up the Eurosceptics within the Tory Party put the UK on its current path. That's not to say that there should not have been a referendum (because, clearly, Brexit had/has widespread support), but there should have been a **plan** in case leave won.

Cameron's issues almost all stem from the fact that he was a bad gambler, or at least one who sat down at the table without knowing the stakes. You put the Lib-Dems in the toilet and get one referendum result that pays out perfectly for the Tories,  and suddenly every gamble is worth taking.

 It didn't help that their second one appeared in the short term to have similarly reaped benefits. With hindsight we can see that this polarized the Scottish electorate and entrenched the SNP, a situation that is now leading to a potential constitutional crisis over devolved authority.  I have no doubt Cameron still would have rolled the electoral dice here even if he knew these outcomes,  since it means less Labour seats, but was certainly not a good decision ling term for both nations.

And of course he lost the third gamble, one no doubt made with the intention of repeating triumph over the Lib-Dems only this time with UKIP and internal enemies.  The third gamble though exposes how Cameron rolled the dice only seeing his outcome  - totally ignoring the finer and necessary specifics of the alternatives. When you play stupid games with the countries future, you win stupid prizes that endanger the stability of the system.  

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/TulipSiddiq/status/1545080985355780096

Was looking at the local by-elections for Thursday to see if anything interesting happened and this popped up.  They don't count the votes until Friday AM.  Kind of a confusing locale.  In the May election the voters filled two seats, one Con and one Labor won, however the Labor candidate was a paper candidate as Labor had never won in anything approximating this jurisdiction.  The Labor candidate felt he had work obligations that prevented him from serving on council so he resigned immediately hence the by-election.  And according to Andrew's preview, the bookies say the LD candidate is the favorite . 

As for the other local by-elections on Thursday, there was only one Con defense and they lost, in fact finished 3rd behind the Greens and LD (even with UKIP standing down).  Labor almost lost a seat to the Greens and Labor won a seat from an Indy.   

hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

this is just pathetic

[YL]

The Daily Mail is taking things well, I see.

[Torrain]

The Daily Mail is taking things well, I see.

They’ve literally copy-pasted the Express’s famous headline from the day Thatcher resigned - hell of a comparison to make, given the circumstances.

[Zinneke]

So, where does Johnson rank compared to his two predecessors? I, for one, called both Cameron and May among the worst in British history, and I knew it wouldn't be long before he usurped them both for that title. Can the streak continue?

Cameron is still the absolute worst. His Brexit Referendum gambit to shut up the Eurosceptics within the Tory Party put the UK on its current path. That's not to say that there should not have been a referendum (because, clearly, Brexit had/has widespread support), but there should have been a **plan** in case leave won.

Cameron was not individually at fault for the Brexit mess - he led the Conservatives to a narrow victory on the strong and stable message and once that happened no Tory leader could have resisted the Brexiteer wing of the party that was baying for blood. May and Johnson have to own this political disaster alongside Baker and the other hardliners who never seem to get their hands stuck into governing.

[EastAnglianLefty]

So, where does Johnson rank compared to his two predecessors? I, for one, called both Cameron and May among the worst in British history, and I knew it wouldn't be long before he usurped them both for that title. Can the streak continue?

Cameron is still the absolute worst. His Brexit Referendum gambit to shut up the Eurosceptics within the Tory Party put the UK on its current path. That's not to say that there should not have been a referendum (because, clearly, Brexit had/has widespread support), but there should have been a **plan** in case leave won.

Cameron was not individually at fault for the Brexit mess - he led the Conservatives to a narrow victory on the strong and stable message and once that happened no Tory leader could have resisted the Brexiteer wing of the party that was baying for blood. May and Johnson have to own this political disaster alongside Baker and the other hardliners who never seem to get their hands stuck into governing.

He was responsible:

• He promised the referendum in 2013 to try to avoid facing a leadership challenge, with no intention to go through with it because he assumed the Lib Dems would force him to drop the pledge during coalition negotiations.
• He then won a majority by deliberately knee-capping the Lib Dems.
• He ran a tone deaf campaign, aimed at ensuring Tory voters voted Remain and that those who voted Leave didn't get too angry with him, whilst failing to realise that in a referendum you need to get 50% and so you have to try and win the support of non-Tory voters.
• When the result happened, he promptly ran away.

His successors handled things very badly, but it's Cameron's fault that it ever happened.

[Estrella]

So, where does Johnson rank compared to his two predecessors? I, for one, called both Cameron and May among the worst in British history, and I knew it wouldn't be long before he usurped them both for that title. Can the streak continue?

Cameron is still the absolute worst. His Brexit Referendum gambit to shut up the Eurosceptics within the Tory Party put the UK on its current path. That's not to say that there should not have been a referendum (because, clearly, Brexit had/has widespread support), but there should have been a **plan** in case leave won.

Cameron was not individually at fault for the Brexit mess - he led the Conservatives to a narrow victory on the strong and stable message and once that happened no Tory leader could have resisted the Brexiteer wing of the party that was baying for blood. May and Johnson have to own this political disaster alongside Baker and the other hardliners who never seem to get their hands stuck into governing.

He was responsible:

• He promised the referendum in 2013 to try to avoid facing a leadership challenge, with no intention to go through with it because he assumed the Lib Dems would force him to drop the pledge during coalition negotiations.
• He then won a majority by deliberately knee-capping the Lib Dems.
• He ran a tone deaf campaign, aimed at ensuring Tory voters voted Remain and that those who voted Leave didn't get too angry with him, whilst failing to realise that in a referendum you need to get 50% and so you have to try and win the support of non-Tory voters.
• When the result happened, he promptly ran away.

His successors handled things very badly, but it's Cameron's fault that it ever happened.

This is something seemingly every Tory politician struggles with. The 90s civil war made them view relations with the EU - and then the whole process of Brexit - as an internal party matter, as if the universe ended at the door of CCHQ. This attitude is probably the main culprit for why the Brexit negotiations were such a chaotic farce.

[Zinneke]

So, where does Johnson rank compared to his two predecessors? I, for one, called both Cameron and May among the worst in British history, and I knew it wouldn't be long before he usurped them both for that title. Can the streak continue?

Cameron is still the absolute worst. His Brexit Referendum gambit to shut up the Eurosceptics within the Tory Party put the UK on its current path. That's not to say that there should not have been a referendum (because, clearly, Brexit had/has widespread support), but there should have been a **plan** in case leave won.

Cameron was not individually at fault for the Brexit mess - he led the Conservatives to a narrow victory on the strong and stable message and once that happened no Tory leader could have resisted the Brexiteer wing of the party that was baying for blood. May and Johnson have to own this political disaster alongside Baker and the other hardliners who never seem to get their hands stuck into governing.

He was responsible:

• He promised the referendum in 2013 to try to avoid facing a leadership challenge, with no intention to go through with it because he assumed the Lib Dems would force him to drop the pledge during coalition negotiations.
• He then won a majority by deliberately knee-capping the Lib Dems.
• He ran a tone deaf campaign, aimed at ensuring Tory voters voted Remain and that those who voted Leave didn't get too angry with him, whilst failing to realise that in a referendum you need to get 50% and so you have to try and win the support of non-Tory voters.
• When the result happened, he promptly ran away.

His successors handled things very badly, but it's Cameron's fault that it ever happened.

Let's just pose a counter-factual though : is there a single Tory leader who would have been able to act in a different manner than Cameron did? Any Tory moderate was hamstrung by the fact that the Brexity wing of the party, basically since Lisbon, wanted a referendum. You can't seriously blame Cameron for "knee capping" the LibDems : was he supposed to lose another election on purpose in order to force a second Con-LibDem coalition , which incidentally would almost certainly trigger a leadership election and a member of the hard Tory right taking over.

I'll accept he ran a catastrophic campaign for Remain with his deal from Brussels but is there a single Remainer politician who hit the right notes at that point? It is extremely hard to sell a positive vision of the Brussels bureaucracy. Its there, its useful but nobody outside anoraks and the new generations of Brits who were travelling abroad for studies, erasmus, etc (comparatively low compared to other EU countries) were deeply passionate about defending EU membership. So he went into the campaign gambling that people would vote according to their pocketbook and failed miserably. But I don't see how he should have stayed on, gone back to Brussels (in almost Tsipras-like manner) and tries to negotiate a project he didn't believe in. His position was totally untenable but that was due to a) having a 10 seat majority which is the best result any Tory could have hoped for from 2015 and b) the entire media circus around the EU, Brexit, Johnson in the background etc. I don't actually think Cameron is in any way a coward or a useless gambler. His Scottish referendum is to be admired (he could have gone down the populist route like the PP did in Spain) and his Brexit referendum was inevitable once he had a small majority. Really Cameron was a bad PM because of austerity, which was a massive macroeconomic miscalculation based on a message (popular with the British electorate) that the reasons for the 08 Financial Crisis and economic stagnation was public expenditure.

He is by no means worse than May, whose stubbornness and Hard Brexit turn + insane GE gamble cost Britain massively in negotiations and Johnson who was totally out of his depth. If you had Cameron at the helm during Covid crisis for example and Britain would have fared much better, compared to Johnson's lies and indecisiveness.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well tbf the Covid business is something May would have handled much better as well.

It was something very ill suited for Johnson's, erm, "set of skills".

[Blair]

YouGov polls confirms Labour will be upset to see Boris go. I honestly reckon he could have made a Labour majority possible.

Will be interesting to see how someone new does- basically how much of the last 6 months was Boris’s personal character and how much was inflation, energy prices, crime etc.

Answer is probably both.

There is also a risk that the Tories pick someone who is just as incompetent as him but has even less charisma and no cult following.

[Blair]

On another point it has occurred to me that if the government had simply suspended the whip from pincher on the night of Thursday rather than briefing the stupid claims that since he had apologised it was okay I actually think that they could have got away with this scandal.

It is only now that I realise how strange it is that this was the scandal that finally tipped it all over.

[CumbrianLefty]

But 2019 in Australia taught me that voters forgive plenty of conservative governments that they crucify Labour governments for, and I worry Truss in particular (and Braverman, though I doubt Tories will choose her) could turn things around for them.

Mate, if you think Suella Braverman - SUELLA BRAVERMAN - would be a success as Tory leader then the kindest thing I can say is that you don't know very much about her.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

But 2019 in Australia taught me that voters forgive plenty of conservative governments that they crucify Labour governments for, and I worry Truss in particular (and Braverman, though I doubt Tories will choose her) could turn things around for them.

Mate, if you think Suella Braverman - SUELLA BRAVERMAN - would be a success as Tory leader then the kindest thing I can say is that you don't know very much about her.

What's so bad about her ?

[Torrain]

Labour polling at 1997 levels today. Man, the opposition are going to miss Johnson.
https://mobile.twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1545299367313260545?s=21&t...

[CumbrianLefty]

Leads of 12,11 and 12 for Labour in the last 3 polls.

(which would likely equate to the fabled "20 points" with the old less pro-Tory methodology)

[YL]

By way of comparison, in polls taken on 23 November 1990 the Tories actually took the lead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election#1990

[CumbrianLefty]

By way of comparison, in polls taken on 23 November 1990 the Tories actually took the lead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election#1990

Yeah, that was a pretty abrupt shift wasn't it. Shows how well the Tories pulled off the "you've had an actual change of government" thing that time - they might find it a bit more difficult now.

[Torrain]

By way of comparison, in polls taken on 23 November 1990 the Tories actually took the lead.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election#1990

Yeah, that was a pretty abrupt shift wasn't it. Shows how well the Tories pulled off the "you've had an actual change of government" thing that time - they might find it a bit more difficult now.

It has to be harder now, right? When you’ve played that card twice in the past 6 years, surely that’s all the chances you get. I mean, I imagine we’ll get a brief honeymoon for the new PM, but they’d have to be a real talent to claw back a polling lead like that.

[CumbrianLefty]

But 2019 in Australia taught me that voters forgive plenty of conservative governments that they crucify Labour governments for, and I worry Truss in particular (and Braverman, though I doubt Tories will choose her) could turn things around for them.

Mate, if you think Suella Braverman - SUELLA BRAVERMAN - would be a success as Tory leader then the kindest thing I can say is that you don't know very much about her.

What's so bad about her ?

How long have you got??

[Blair]

Honestly if I was a Conservative strategist I would rather have Nadine Dorries who does have a rather hilarious sense of humour as leader rather than someone like Braverman who is basically the Conservative Richard Burgon e.g someone on the ideological fringe who comes across as extremely stupid despite their law degree.

I am actually being very unfair to Burgon.