The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[The Mikado]

So Obama was priced higher in May 2007 than Romney is now?  I'd say that Romney's in a better position than Obama was four years ago at this point (though, obviously, Obama ended up working out).

[Likely Voter]

So the fourth place guy on Intrade ended up as the GOP nominee. So I guess it is time to get ready for Herman Cain

[Mr. Morden]

So the fourth place guy on Intrade ended up as the GOP nominee. So I guess it is time to get ready for Herman Cain

You could also say that the eventual nominees of both parties were above 15.0 at this time four years ago, which narrows it down to Romney, Pawlenty, and Huntsman, and rules out Cain and the others.

[feeblepizza]

I can see Cain as the nominee. I've said it before and will say once more, he is the Huckabee of 2012.

[charlestondxman]

Wow, Cain at 6.3%? It will be higher. I remember him as a radio host.

[GLPman]

It's hilarious that Christie is above Gingrich. Poor Newt.

[The Mikado]

It's hilarious that Christie is above Gingrich. Poor Newt.

Did you notice this?

Gingrich in 2012: 2.8
Gingrich in 2008: 2.7

He's slightly higher than the year he wasn't running.

[tpfkaw]

Futures market analyst extraordinaire wormyguy offers his analysis.

Romney 28.0 - BUY
Pawlenty 23.7 - SELL
Huntsman 15.1 - SELL
Cain 6.3 - HOLD
Palin 6.2 - Wait for uptick, then SELL
Bachmann 5.3 - BUY
Christie 3.0 - Wait for uptick, then SELL
Gingrich 2.8 - BUY
Perry 2.8 - Wait for uptick, then SELL
Paul 2.6 - BUY
Giuliani 1.1 - BUY
Ryan 1.0 - HOLD
Johnson 0.7 - Wait for uptick, then SELL
Santorum 0.7 - BUY
J. Bush 0.3 - Wait for uptick, then SELL

[Dan the Roman]

Futures market analyst extraordinaire wormyguy offers his analysis.

Romney 28.0 - BUY
Pawlenty 23.7 - SELL
Huntsman 15.1 - SELL
Cain 6.3 - HOLD
Palin 6.2 - Wait for uptick, then SELL
Bachmann 5.3 - BUY
Christie 3.0 - Wait for uptick, then SELL
Gingrich 2.8 - BUY
Perry 2.8 - Wait for uptick, then SELL
Paul 2.6 - BUY
Giuliani 1.1 - BUY
Ryan 1.0 - HOLD
Johnson 0.7 - Wait for uptick, then SELL
Santorum 0.7 - BUY
J. Bush 0.3 - Wait for uptick, then SELL

For now yes. I would buy Huntsman as the general election winner though. Because I suspect he has better odds of actually becoming President than Pawlenty or Romney.

[Bull Moose Base]

With Palin not polled, Gingrich is, in most polls, 2nd place behind Romney.  His price to be Republican nominee in 2012 is currently lower than Al Gore's to be the Democratic nominee in 2012.

[TheGlobalizer]

For Huntsman, I think you'll see a further bump as the NH buzz around him grows, the question will be how he plays in IA.

IMO, Romney will be a distant memory in a few months.  I'm perplexed that he has as much support as he has, and it seems like it's based almost entirely on name recognition and his perma-campaign.  I think a lot of that will shift over to Pawlenty as his name recognition grows.

Bachmann will, I think, make a solid run at this.

If I'm handicapping, I think those three are the standout candidates for later this year, with Gingrich, Paul, Cain, and possibly Johnson rattling around at the margins.  Then it's a question of whether other notables (Palin, Christie, Perry) jump in.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

For Huntsman, I think you'll see a further bump as the NH buzz around him grows, the question will be how he plays in IA.

IMO, Romney will be a distant memory in a few months.  I'm perplexed that he has as much support as he has, and it seems like it's based almost entirely on name recognition and his perma-campaign.  I think a lot of that will shift over to Pawlenty as his name recognition grows.

Bachmann will, I think, make a solid run at this.

If I'm handicapping, I think those three are the standout candidates for later this year, with Gingrich, Paul, Cain, and possibly Johnson rattling around at the margins.  Then it's a question of whether other notables (Palin, Christie, Perry) jump in.

Johnson is effectively acting as Paul's more liberal and less libertarian sock puppet. He will make Paul seem less lonely on the stage with his beliefs, he will be propped up by Paul when he says something bad, and eventually he will look at the 5% at best he is getting in the polls and endorse Paul.

Romney, as you said, is likely to fade. He might hold onto his support, but he is kind of reminding me of 2007 Giuliani: looks great on paper and the polls, but has enough problems that, when exposed widely, will sink like a stone.

Pawlenty is really overrated IMO. I mean, okay, he is the other "moderate" with credibility, but has anyone else noticed how he has been trying to push himself to the right by stealing Ron Paul's talking points? I mean, he was talking about the evils of "fiat currency" just the other day like a reborn Austrian economist, its like he is taking the "the winner of the primary will be the Republican other than Ron Paul who sounds the most like Ron Paul" article to heart. Beyond his attempts at repositioning himself, I doubt he will pick up enough of Romney's support. Romney might be a dirty liberal who gets the moderate support, but he is at least charismatic and good looking enough to fool enough conservatives into backing him and to make people like him. Watching T-Paw speak is, frankly, more boring than watching paint dry on most occasions. If Romney really collapsed he might jump to fourth, third, or second (depending on the strength of the opposition) to a "true conservative" like Bachmann, Paul, Palin, etc etc.

Bachmann's strength depends on two things; media spotlight and Sarah Palin. If the media doesn't pay any attention, like Palin, she will flounder and drop (and with her support not being very high to start, she will likely be forgotten even if everything else goes her way). If the media glares right at her like with Palin, she might get publicity and support, but it will also tear her up and probably make her look like an idiot, which will hurt her very much in picking up support after maybe 20% (with no Palin) and will destroy any chances in a general election. Next, if Palin runs, Bachmann and Palin will steal each other's votes, if Bachmann positions herself well she might end with about 8%, leaving Palin with somewhere between 8-10%, and someone else will take advantage of the situation and storm ahead (depending on the fate of Romney, that someone could be Cain, Paul, maybe T-Paw, but almost certainly not universally hated Gingrich). If Palin doesn't run and endorses Cain, Paul or someone else, then Bachmann will be in trouble fighting a fellow strong conservative. If Palin doesn't run and endorses no one or endorses Bachmann, she might benefit enough to manage a victory.

I will go through those other three very fast: Palin depends, inversely, on Bachmann. Also, I suspect that the longer she sticks around, the less enthusiastic her base gets. Her advantage is a reasonably loyal (if, compared to those of Huckabee, Romney, or Paul, disorganized) base, but it will fall away if she doesn't continue to loudly strut about. She might do well, might not. Christie already said he wouldn't run very clearly; if he ran away, he would be attacked for that over and over. Anyway, he isn't an especially strong candidate even ignoring that, and he is probably aiming to wait for Obama to leave for a better chance at winning in 2016. Perry is very heavily disliked; even in Texas, he is being crushed by just about everyone, including the other Texan in the race, Paul. Outside of Texas, I would be surprised if he broke 4%.

[TheGlobalizer]

@Bourbon: I agree with just about all of that.  Bachmann is basically Palin-lite, if such a thing is possible.

I like Johnson, and think he could do well if he got any traction, but he won't.  The pot thing is too much, and while I agree with him on it, it's a loser of a GOP primary issue.

Perry's a peculiar dog.  He's one of those "nine lives" politicians.  I think his version of Texas brashness (and recent Tea Party nuttiness) could win some support beyond Texas, but I don't see the path to victory for him at all.

T-Paw is a placeholder, the tortoise.  I see him as a basically Romney from 2008, who is a little less polished (a good thing) and a little less obviously a hypocrite (also a good thing).  I think the Tea Party stuff shifted the goalposts a bit, making the slicksters less favorable; T-Paw can still hang in, but Romney is DOA.  (Also a big part of why Thune didn't run.)

Handicapping it today, I like Huntsman's chances to win the nom.  I think the "true" conservatives will stay in too long and split the vote.  Huntsman was DOA until the moment Daniels declined to run; now he seems like a fairly good stand-in for that "economics first" conservative candidate, had similar approval ratings in Utah, and has the advantage on foreign policy experience.

That said, things change quickly in politics, especially with ~9 months before the first primaries/caucuses.

[Mr. Morden]

The race continues to be dominated by Mormons, women, blacks, Minnesotans, and combinations thereof.

GOP nomination

Up: Palin, Perry
Down: Pawlenty, Gingrich

Romney 28.3
Pawlenty 21.0
Huntsman 16.0
Palin 8.9
Cain 5.7
Bachmann 5.5
Perry 4.3
Christie 2.1
Paul 2.1
Gingrich 1.7
Giuliani 1.2
Ryan 1.0
Santorum 0.7
Johnson 0.4
J. Bush 0.3

winning individual:

Obama 60.8
Romney 10.4
Pawlenty 8.9
Huntsman 7.0
Palin 3.7
Cain 2.3
Bachmann 1.8
Gingrich 1.1
Biden 1.0
Paul 1.0
Trump 0.9
Clinton 0.4

[Bull Moose Base]

Jesus.

https://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/27/business/27delaney.html

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[TheGlobalizer]

Tasteless Joke Alert

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I wonder what his probability of death was trading at...

[Yelnoc]

That's awful to hear.  My condolences to the Delaney's.

[Mr. Morden]

Rick-mentum moves Perry up to 5th place.

GOP nomination

Up: Huntsman, Perry
Down: Pawlenty

Romney 28.0
Pawlenty 18.3
Huntsman 17.0
Palin 8.0
Perry 7.0
Cain 5.3
Bachmann 5.2
Christie 2.3
Paul 2.1
Gingrich 2.0
Giuliani 1.9
Ryan 1.2
Santorum 0.8
J. Bush 0.3
Johnson 0.3

Dem nomination

Obama 92.5
Clinton 4.2
Biden 3.5

Dem VP nomination

Biden 82.0
Clinton 7.0

[Yelnoc]

Let the fools buy.

[Bull Moose Base]

Anyone mind if I point out that Gingrich is trading lower than a guy who suggested he might commit suicide as a way to convince people he's not running?  I thought he was the Giuliani of this cycle, then I thought he'd be out by Fall but he looks like there are no such thing as expectations too low.  Will he even make it to the end of June?  Please, just one humiliating debate performance before we send you on your way.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney moves just above 30 for the first time since the midterms.  Pawlenty regains some ground as well.

Romney 30.1
Pawlenty 21.1
Huntsman 17.2
Palin 7.6
Perry 7.0
Bachmann 5.4
Cain 4.5
Christie 2.3
Giuliani 2.2
Gingrich 2.1
Paul 2.0
Ryan 1.2
Santorum 0.8
Johnson 0.4

[Yelnoc]

I would say the cut-off for a candidate to win the primaries has moved from 5 to 10.  Meaning Romney, Pawlenty, and Huntsman are the only viable options.

[TheGlobalizer]

I would say the cut-off for a candidate to win the primaries has moved from 5 to 10.  Meaning Romney, Pawlenty, and Huntsman are the only viable options.

Still a lot of time before these numbers become particularly relevant, but I do think those three names, barring castrophe, will be in the final list.  I do expect to see a red-meat social conservative in that list as well, but I'm not sure who that end up being.

[King]

I kind of feel like investing my life savings on that Cain @ 4.5.

[Mr. Morden]

GOP presidential nominee:

Romney 29.4
Pawlenty 19.4
Huntsman 15.5
Palin 5.7
Perry 5.7
Bachmann 5.5
Cain 4.5
Christie 3.1
Giuliani 2.1
Paul 1.9
Gingrich 1.8
Ryan 1.3
Santorum 0.7
Pataki 0.5

GOP VP nominee:

Rubio 22.0
Pawlenty 8.0
Huckabee 7.8
Thune 6.9
Daniels 6.0
McDonnell 5.9
Christie 5.3
Ryan 5.0
Bachmann 4.9
Huntsman 4.9
Romney 4.7
Palin 4.5
Jindal 3.0