Early Predictions: How many of the 10 red-state Democratic Senators survive 2018

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It's quite possible that all of them survive, but I'd say a good early prediction is Manchin, Donnelly, and McCaskill lose, and the rest survive. Meanwhile the Democrats beat Heller and Flake.

Of the Clinton state Democrats, Menendez might also be vulnerable. I suppose King could theoretically be vulnerable to IRV oddities, but it's very unlikely since I suspect he'll get majority support. Klobuchar's seat is staying Democratic even if she retires (which she won't).

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I keep forgetting about Tim Kaine. I think it's pretty clear that either (a) Virginia is now a very Democratic state or (b) Kaine is a popular Senator who propelled Clinton to victory in Virginia or (c) Trump is a bad fit for Virginia. Either way, Kaine has very little to worry about.

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The last democrat to win anything during a midterm in this state was 2006!

Uh....

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The more relevant point is that both of the midterms since 2006 have been Republican wave years. There's no reason to expect 2018 to be one.

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WAY Too Early to tell, but if the election was held today...
Joe Manchin (WV) : WV was the second most GOP state this year, but voted for Jim Justice. Who knows....pure tossup for now.
Heidi Heitkamp (ND): Should be an easy pickup
Jon Tester (MT): Tilt Pickup
Joe Donnelly (IN): Should be an easy pickup
Claire McCaskill (MO): IN B4 TN volunteer. Should be an Easy Pickup
Sherrod Brown (OH): Ohio Voted 9 points to the right of the nation....I have no idea if it will hold,  but Brown could be in real trouble. As of now, Hold
Bill Nelson (FL): Likely Hold
Bob Casey (PA): Likely Hold
Tammy Baldwin (WI): Potential PickUP with a strong nominee like Mike Gallagher or Sean Duff
Debbie Stabenow (MI): Likely Hold

"If the election were held today" I doubt any of them would lose. Pryor and Landrieu were leading polls up until the summer of 2014.