LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

'Called it:

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[NHLiberal]

'Called it:

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If McAllister makes it into the runoff, does Mayo have a shot?

[Miles]

If McAllister makes it into the runoff, does Mayo have a shot?

I think there would still be enough Republicans who who hold their nose for McAllister.

The biggest beneficiary in that scenario would be Landrieu. Republican enthusiasm would be down with McAllister and Mayo would be able to turn out more votes in Monroe (and a few other towns with strong black populations, like Bastrop and Ruston).

[NHLiberal]

If McAllister makes it into the runoff, does Mayo have a shot?

I think there would still be enough Republicans who who hold their nose for McAllister.

The biggest beneficiary in that scenario would be Landrieu. Republican enthusiasm would be down with McAllister and Mayo would be able to turn out more votes in Monroe (and a few other towns with strong black populations, like Bastrop and Ruston).

And how likely is this scenario (that the runoff is McAllister vs. Mayo)?

[IceSpear]

If McAllister makes it into the runoff, does Mayo have a shot?

I think there would still be enough Republicans who who hold their nose for McAllister.

The biggest beneficiary in that scenario would be Landrieu. Republican enthusiasm would be down with McAllister and Mayo would be able to turn out more votes in Monroe (and a few other towns with strong black populations, like Bastrop and Ruston).

Would Republican enthusiasm really be down? They seemed pretty high on Vitter in 2010, and what he did was far worse than McAllister.

[Miles]

Would Republican enthusiasm really be down? They seemed pretty high on Vitter in 2010, and what he did was far worse than McAllister.

Yeah, could be. The Landrieu campaign was trying to draft the Shreveport mayor to run in CD4 to create a similar effect there.

Vitter had a few things going for him 1) it was a few years since his scandal and Melancon didn't really bring it up and 2) Vitter was (is) good at nationalizing his races (how he cleared 50% in 2004) and the climate of 2010 helped that. Vitter also still had the state GOP behind him and much more $.

Being from the south, Melancon wasn't a great candidate for northern LA, and that was before Vitter made him into Obama.

[Indy Texas]

Bill Cassidy's 17-year old daughter is pregnant #Louisiana #FamilyValues

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/07/gop-hopeful-daughter-pregnant-108568.html?hp=l4

If it were Landrieu's daughter the right-wing noise machine would never shut up about it.

How's that abstinence-only sex ed workin' out for them now?

[Miles]

NC-Sen: One of the NC's political sages, Catawba College prof. Michael Bitzer, weighs in on Libertarians. He makes several good points. The media tends to hype up Libertarians, like Haugh or Sarvis, but, in NC, they account for only .3% of the registered voters.  Likewise, they tend to poll best in the summer months, when undecideds are less committed to either major party. OTOH, the attention may be justified, as Haugh could very well spoil this race either way.

LA-Sen: Palin has a radio ad for Maness.

LA-06: The EBR Republican Party hosted a debate for the 8 Republicans running here. I'll try to find a video. Also, props to Claitor:

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Also, here's a interview with Edwards.

[Vosem]

I don't know if this is quite the right thread for it, but a thought crossed my mind the other day. If Vitter is elected Governor of Louisiana in 2015, he'll be vacating his Senate seat. What's the mechanism in Louisiana for replacing Senators -- is it done by gubernatorial appointment or by special election? (I recall Edwin Edwards appointed his wife, but that was decades ago). And, assuming Vitter is elected, whichever mechanism is used, who is likely to take his spot?

[Miles]

^ Its by Gubernatorial appointment.

Cassidy will get it if he loses this year, if not, Kennedy should be favored if he doesn't run for Gov.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Well, I was wondering when these assholes would strike again; AFP has a $950K buy against Landrieu.

NC-06:

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[Vern]

I haven't heard anything out of any of them and I live in NC-6

[Miles]

^ I understand that it's the most populous county, but that race seems really Guilford-centric.

Hagan has another strong quarter with $3.6M raised.

[Dixie Reborn]

Rasmussen: Landrieu leads Cassidy with 46% - 43%.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Rasmussen: Landrieu leads Cassidy with 46% - 43%.

This is my obligatory "Landrieu is going win because the MOE is +/-4% and it's (R)asmussen" post.

[Miles]

LA-06: Very good reading; National Journal on Edwards.

NC-Sen: Tillis had his best fundraising quarter, raising $1.6M.

[moderatevoter]

Tillis's fundraising is underwhelming, though I suppose there are a few logical reasons. At the same time, I'm don't think it'll matter too much in the end, considering how active outside groups are in this race.

[Never]

LA-Sen: James Carville contributes his four reasons for watching the Senate race in Louisiana. Among other things, he suspects that Tea Party-backed Rob Maness could actually come in second place in November's open primary, beating out Bill Cassidy for a spot in the possible December runoff.

[Dixie Reborn]

More on the previously mentioned poll.

[RogueBeaver]

LA-Sen: WaPo's Aaron Blake says Hollis has dropped out. So was the whole thing a mistake, like Land's guv flop?

[Never]

LA-Sen: Bayou Buzz comments that Maness will probably benefit from Hollis dropping out, because he is now the only major Tea Party candidate on Cassidy's right flank.

[Dixie Reborn]

LA-Sen: Bayou Buzz comments that Maness will probably benefit from Hollis dropping out, because he is now the only major Tea Party candidate on Cassidy's right flank.

He might win over all 4% of Louisiana Republicans who were Hollis supporters.

[Never]

LA-Sen: Bayou Buzz comments that Maness will probably benefit from Hollis dropping out, because he is now the only major Tea Party candidate on Cassidy's right flank.

He might win over all 4% of Louisiana Republicans who were Hollis supporters.

Every vote counts

[RogueBeaver]

NC-Sen: Rothenberg moves it from Tossup to Tilt D.

[RogueBeaver]

AOSHQDD projects a Walker win in NC-6.