43rd British Columbia general election

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It's a little out there to think that half of the Liberals' voter base suddenly forgot the party they like wasn't called the Conservatives.

Or maybe a good many--particularly outside of the immediacy of Greater Vancouver--*have* figured that the party they *want* to like *is* called the BC Conservatives.

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Of course, I'm presently guarded about the BCU assessments of some of the Interior seats.  (Langara's another matter)

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They should have a poll that doesn’t prompt people on what the parties are, just ask them to name the party they would vote for, and see how many of them say BC Liberals.

Says a lot about me maybe that if I had unlimited money and resources that’s the sort of thing I’d spend it on.

Or even more so, the *person* they'd vote for--I'm sure that incumbent advantage counts in a whole lot of cases, whatever the party confusion...

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Will this finally motiviate the BC Conservatives to run a proper campaign with candidates across the province? If they do, I can see them replacing the Liberals BC United as the main opposition.  After a cycle or two, BC United will be reduced to a rump in the wealthier parts of the Lower mainland, and BC will go back to being polarized. The Conservatives will then shift more to the centre, and will probably mirror the policies of the SoCreds.

Almost certainly--and esp. in the event that we have other tea-leaf-reading party-jumper MLAs within the BC Interior.  Or if they fall short of a full slate, it'd be tokenly so a la the BC Liberals in '91--and keeping that example in mind, BC United reduced to a 3rd-party rump might conceivably be a next-election thing, never mind a cycle or two ahead.  (And as far as the BC Cons go, if they figure an ethnoburban strategy a la Ford Nation in Ontario, they could be a winning force even alongside BC United as a rump in Quilchena/N/W Van/Whistler types of places)

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Historically it would probably be over two election cycles. 1991 saw the utter defeat of SoCreds and the emergence of the BCLiberals as the main right-of-centre party. But the SoCreds still ran a campaing in 96 only calling for a unified right vote just before the vote. It worked to some degree but not in the SoCreds favour, the BCL had a slim win of the popular vote but still lost to the NDP 39 to 33.

Though even if the leader participated in the debate, the '96 SoCreds were really a zombie party a la the present-day Alberta Liberals--only half the seats even having candidates, all the incumbents either retiring or jumping to BCLib or BCReform (and the *latter* was more of the critical right-divider in that particular election).  So the pre-vote concession was just bowing to the inevitable...

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There was also this foot-in-the-door matter

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal-Labour_(Canada)

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Well well, maybe this will be a closer race than thought https://press.liaisonstrategies.ca/bc-ndp-lead-bc-conservatives-by/ .  It is one poll and I think discrepancy is Angus-Reid mentions BC United was formerly BC Liberals whereas this one does not.  Still BC Conservatives surging is real.  How big a threat they present to NDP, tough to say.  Are rather right wing for BC so my thinking is once come under greater scrutiny they fall back especially in Lower Mainland.  Still it would not shock me one bit if BC United + BC Conservatives get more votes than NDP although BC NDP + BC Greens probably still get more votes than right does.  If like Angus-Reid probably merge.  If like Liason, BC United likely implodes and BC Conservatives become new right wing coalition in 2028 much like Social Credit was from 1952-1986 and BC Liberals from 2001 to 2020.

I don't think it would shock *anyone* if BC United and BC Cons combined outpoll the NDP, because that's more of a statistical-noise thing, and a lot of people would agree that how the BCNDP did last time around was "high end" for them rather than a permanent new normal.  It's only relevant to those who obsessively view politics through a Duverger prism where the Bill Bennett/Dave Barrett races marked an ideal state of affairs.

And as mentioned, not all BC United types would be on board w/a BC Con big tent, much as not all federal PCs were on board with the "united right" in '04 (and not all NDPers *or* Libs would be on board if the federal parties merged).

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Faaackkk. This election will directly impact my job, from salary to working conditions. I can’t even imagine working under a provincial Conservative government run by kooks and extremists. I thought we were safe here.

Once again, remember that a lot of this has to do with the brand and consequent Poilievre honeymoon "bleed".

Still, when all is said and done, one precedent for this kind of kooks-out-of-nowhere-in-BC is the first federal Reform Party election in 1993.

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Faaackkk. This election will directly impact my job, from salary to working conditions. I can’t even imagine working under a provincial Conservative government run by kooks and extremists. I thought we were safe here.

Once again, remember that a lot of this has to do with the brand and consequent Poilievre honeymoon "bleed".

Still, when all is said and done, one precedent for this kind of kooks-out-of-nowhere-in-BC is the first federal Reform Party election in 1993.

There is no Poilievre bleed, there is only a fraudulous "pollster".

Well, maybe not to the extent indicated by said "pollster", but there *is*, in the same sense that the Manitoba Libs have tended to poll better between provincial elections than during them, or like the Ontario zombie Libs did btw/Wynne & Crombie.  A projection of the national brand onto the provincial party bearing the same label.  (Which is another way of saying: let's not get too hasty in "reading" the numbers.)

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Lot of cope from BC United there considering theyre indisputably behind the conservatives

True, but I'm sure the goal of Quitto Maggi/Mainstreet Research with their junk polls is to get B.C United supporters to switch to the B.C Conservatives. Of course, that doesn't mean that it can't be successful.

Quito is a well known Liberal though, I'm not sure why he would want to do this.

What happened in Toronto made sense, I believe he was on the Bailao campaign. I also have a feeling his riding polling influenced the results in Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte (I believe he was on the Lehman campaign) in the 2022 provincial election. But, I'm not sure what his angle in BC is. Maybe he really just hates the NDP?

Animus t/w "socialist hordes" kind of captures it.  Essentially, Quito likes to shill on behalf of the most viable establishment hack option.  And he sees that potential in the BC Cons, at least by way of their clear lead over BC United...

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I feel like in a BC NDP vs Cons race, the NDP is the establishment choice, though.

The Socialist Hordes as "establishment choice" is an oxymoron, to those of a certain sort.  (Incidentally, what's Nick Kouvalis doing these days?)

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This seems more like US would be had Sanders instead of Biden won Democrat nomination in 2020 and what would establishment GOP who hated Trump do in that case?  Biden was centrist enough easy to support him but if Sanders was chosen I bet they would have run a third party candidate so in a roundabout way I am saying your business types who supported BC Liberals but cannot stand right wing populism are probably sticking with BC United even if that is all they have left.

FWIW, Christy Clark's ex-husband Mark Marrissen who is a dyed in the wool "blue Liberal" old Paul Martin backer has tweeted that if he has to choose between the BC NDP under Eby and the climate change denying crackpots in the BC Conservative party - he is voting NDP

Yeah, I was thinking of that when I thought of the NDP as the establishment party. They're no longer thought of as the socialist hordes, and are probably closer to Biden than Sanders rhetorically.

Actually, if I can see the BC Cons making any breakthroughs, it's not so much w/the business/establishment Libs a la Marrissen than within the ethnoburbs--not unlike Ford Nation, in fact...

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Uhh the BC Libs/United did fumble, but did they really F it all up to such an extent that they are looking to preemptively surrender to a smaller party? All I can say is that the instinctive "unite to stop the radical NDP" still exists among the politicians,  even if not so much among the voters.

Which'd leave the remaining BC United moderates w/an electoral-choice conundrum: to Eby, or not to Eby, that is the question ;-)