German Elections & Politics

[Beezer]

INSA Baden-Württemberg poll (change since last INSA poll from October):

CDU 35 % (-5)
GRÜ 29 % (+5)
SPD 13 % (-3)
AfD 11,5 % (+3.5)
FDP 6,5 % (+1.5)
Left ?

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

Might not even be enough for a classic grand coalition.

[Beezer]

Exactly. It could actually be a blessing in disguise since I don't know how well AfD-candidates would handle a gang assault in one of those tv debates. So they won't be present but will be present seeing as I'm sure the broadcasters will address the issue during the debates. Win/win for the AfD and an additional layer of support for their "the press does the bidding of the mainstream parties" argument.

[Beezer]

ZDF poll confirms AfD's strong position in Rhineland-Palatinate (compared to previous FGW/ZDF poll in early November)

CDU 38 % (-3)
SPD 31 % (+1)
AfD 9 % (+3)
GRÜ 7 % (-1)
FDP 5 % (+1)
LIN 5 % (0)

[Beezer]

Bild headline: Will Merkel soon be forced out of office?



I'd say unthinkable headline a couple of weeks ago.

[Beezer]

Complete data:


https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/691302285067030528

[Beezer]

How is it possible for the AfD to have such low support among women while having such high support among men? That's very unusual.

I suppose some of it could be down to the margin of error? As others have pointed out, right-wing populist parties are traditionally male dominated parties (at least at the base). I know it might sound sexist but women just don't like parties that appear rash, potentially violent and somewhat inhumane.

[Beezer]

Allensbach poll (compared to Dec 16)

CDU 35 (-3)
SPD 25 (-1)
AfD 10 (+2)
Linke 9,5 (+1)
Grüne 9 (-0,5)
FDP 6,5 (+1,5)
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/allensbach.htm

[Beezer]

Yeah. And this poll of poll indicates that the CDU is heading south across the board once again.


http://pollytix.de/wahltrend

[Beezer]

40 percent of Germans demand Merkel's resignation over refugee policy, poll says

While 39.9 percent of Germans surveyed by the pollster Insa for "Focus" magazine said Chancellor Angela Merkel's refugee policy is grounds for her to step down, 45.2 percent of the more than 2,000 people polled said they did not believe she should leave office. The remaining 15 percent did not state an opinion.

http://www.dw.com/en/40-percent-of-germans-demand-merkels-resignation-over-refugee-policy-poll-says/a-19011014

[Beezer]

CDU/CSU with their worst showing in an Emnid poll since the summer of 2012:

CDU/CSU 34 (-2)
SPD 24 (-1)
AfD 12 (+2)
Left 10 (+1)
Greens 9
FDP 5

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

[Beezer]

Rhineland-Palatinate:

[Beezer]

States where the AfD is polling above 10%

Saxony-Anhalt: 17%
Mecklenburg-West Pommerania: 16%
Thuringia: 13.5%
Saxony: 13%
Hamburg: 13%
Hessen: 12%
Brandenburg: 11%
Baden-Württemberg: 10.5%

[Beezer]

CDU tanking in Baden-Württemberg (compared to January results from the same pollster):

CDU: 31 (-4)
Greens: 28 (0)
SPD: 14 (-1)
AfD: 12 (+2)
FDP: 8 (+2)
Left: 4 (+1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

[Beezer]

My Ba-Wü results:

AfD 83%
CDU 76.1%
ALFA 75%
FDP 64.8%
Pirates 47.7%
SPD 39.8%
Greens 36.4%
Left 30.7%

[Beezer]

If the CDU somehow comes in second in both BW and RLP things might get a bit uncomfortable for Merkel.

[Beezer]

Data from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF:







Seems like that first ever 4th place finish for the SPD is becoming more and more likely...

[Beezer]

Super Sunday is shaping up to be quite something.

Hessen municipal elections:

[Beezer]

[Beezer]

Baden-Württemberg

[Beezer]

RLP

[Beezer]

AfD rising in RLP as well:



I suppose the exit polls may have fallen victim to a "shy AfD" effect.

[Beezer]

   Some  new developments in German political history today.  First time since the war that a party to the right of the CDU wins seats in three landtags at the same time.  First time since the war that a party to the right of the CDU is the second biggest in a German landtag.  Huge victory for political diversity today.  

+ first time that the SPD comes in fourth in statewide elections (I assume).

[Beezer]

Somewhere Bernd Lucke is shedding a tear or two...

[Beezer]

Of course some of the AfD's support may - or will - dissipate if the migrant crisis disappears from the headlines. I'd argue though that what sets its rise apart from the Pirate Party surge is that the AfD fills a genuine void within the party system, as illustrated by the success of similar parties across Europe. There are plenty of voters who feel that they lack a political home and the AfD may provide them with just that. Now the question is how other parties will respond, whether the AfD can overcome infighting that has been relegated to the backpages as the migrant crisis has taken over the headlines and whether it can broaden its appeal beyond the bread and butter issue of immigration.

[Beezer]

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AfD mixes economic liberalism (real meaning, not the American one) and welfare cuts with social conservatism and xenophobia, so its literally the total opposite of what is in the Linke's party platform.

That's the pre-breakup AfD you're talking about though. Right now the AfD has virtually nothing to say on economic topics aside from their opposition to TTIP.