German Elections & Politics

[Beezer]

German government approval hits three year low
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/10/29/german-government-approval-hits-three-year-low/

[Beezer]

I always felt FJS was right about this too. The "Union" is less than the sum of its parts. I suppose the CDU's objections to a federal CSU are based on a fear of having to share their "Fraktionsgemeinschaft" and party with a more powerful CSU.

[Beezer]

Latest poll for Rhineland-Palatinate (state elections in March 2016):

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/rheinland-pfalz.htm

(Change compared to 2011 election results)

CDU: 41 (+ 5.8  )
SPD: 30 (- 5.7)
Greens: 8 (- 7.4)
FDP: 4 (- 0.2)
Left: 5 (+ 2)
AfD: 6 (+ 6)

[Beezer]

Emnid has the AfD at 9%, tying their all time high reached in October of last year (after the wave of successful state elections in eastern Germany).

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

CDU/CSU: 36 (0)
SPD: 26 (+1)
Greens: 10 (0)
Left: 9 (-1)
AfD: 9 (+1)
FDP: 4 (-1)
Others: 6 (0)

[Beezer]

CDU down to 34% in latest INSA-poll. FDP at 6, AfD at 10%.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

[Beezer]

Tbf Merkel is a ridiculously wily politician. A lot of people have written her off before but she always manages to electorally demolish her opponents.

Except for that one time in 2005. She has been able to exploit a period of relative economic strength here in Germany. Most people were ok with her eurozone policies and nobody else really dared to offer an alternative in 2013...what were they going to do, call for eurobonds? Now the tide appears to be slowly but surely turning though and I doubt Merkel really knows what to do. Her policy of solving every crisis with tiny incremental steps is getting nowhere and she has no allies left in Europe.

[Beezer]

Excellent. People are finally starting to be annoyed with Merkel's shenanigans. If I may ask, who did you vote for in 2013, Beezer?

I did vote for the AfD in 2013, mainly because of the CDU-FDP's handling of the eurozone crisis. Before that I had always voted FDP. If the FDP did its job and protected liberal values (by that I mean calling for an end to the influx of millions of people with largely illiberal values), I'd also be open to voting for them again. I don't care much for the AfD's cultural plank since I am perfectly fine with gay marriage and essentially feel people can live their lives whichever way they choose. Right now though my most pressing concern is - surprise, surprise - the migrant crisis which puts me in the awkward position of having to vote for a right-wing populist party.

[Beezer]

Big news today: Schäuble referred to an "avalanche" of migrants. Cue (feigned) outrage from the left which accused the poor man of having the audacity to use a widely used term.

My favorite response had to be this Tweet from a Green party member:

[Beezer]

28 member states will never agree on something as thorny as immigration. So unless Germany wants to welcome them all it's just gonna have to accept some unpalatable measures: Securing the outside border and letting no one in who's coming from a safe country. Period. Then they can register in the camps in Syria's neighboring states with the EU moving some people into the union. Otherwise wave after wave (is that an acceptable term?) will come if they feel they might be able to get asylum just by arriving on the shores of Lesbos.

Anyway, CDU actually gains a point in Emnid poll (now at 37%). Seems they have somewhat bottomed out.

[Beezer]

The boss of INSA is also an AfD advisor and they get their data from the YouGov online panel. So let us take this with as much salt as possible, until it is confirmed by other pollsters.

https://www.ndr.de/fernsehen/sendungen/zapp/blog/AfD-drittstaerkste-Partei-Zweifel-an-Umfrage,afd330.html

For instance, Forsa, which is the only other post-Paris poll out, yet has only an 1-point bump for the Afd, from 7 to 8 per cent.

And Forsa chairman Güllner, who's quite vocal in his criticism of the AfD, is a member of the SPD. Which no one really cares about. I also think that piece is rather weak. It starts off by saying that INSA's polls "had already placed the AfD in the Bundestag even though that eventually of course wasn't the case." Wow, what a take down. INSA saw the AfD at 5%, it wound up winning 4.7%.

[Beezer]

Bit of an altercation at the CSU party conference today. Merkel with her regular "we can do it" shtick (muted applause only) which then led to Seehofer attacking her while she was standing next to him. Afterwards Mutti left the stage w/o waving to the crowd.

[Beezer]

Berlin state election poll:

[Beezer]

If looks could kill...

[Beezer]

Forsa strikes again, sees CDU jump from 36 to 39 percent in a single week. Supposed to be taken with a grain of salt I guess. http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm

[Beezer]

Pollster says that the vast majority of new AfD voters come from the CDU:

[Beezer]

Germans are complete morons when it comes to this topic. Anyone wanting to read Mein Kampf can do so already. If it's a complete piece of junk, publish it so all those w/o internet access can see for themselves what a depraved human being Hitler was. They're in a sense glorifying the book by keeping it under wraps.

[Beezer]

AfD also at 9% in Forsa poll, best result since Oct. 2014 and tied for their highest ever with that polling firm.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm

[Beezer]

Polls for March state elections

Saxony-Anhalt...could AfD actually come in 2nd?

CDU 33 %
Left 19 %
SPD 19 %
AfD 15 %
Greens 5 %
FDP 3 %

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/sachsen-anhalt.htm

Rhineland-Palatinate

CDU 37 %
SPD 31 %
Greens 9 %
AfD 8 %,
FDP 5 %
Left 5 %

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/rheinland-pfalz.htm

[Beezer]

Baden-Württemberg poll (change compared to Dec. 2015):

CDU 35 (-2)
Greens 28 (+3)
SPD 15 (-3)
AfD 10 (+2)
FDP 6 (+1)
Left 3 (-1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

[Beezer]

I think for the time being the AfD like most upstart right wing parties would want to steer clear of any governing responsibility. At the same time it would cause huge outrage if the CDU took over with the help of the AfD. The party is treated like a pariah by the establishment and it is by far Merkel's most vehement critic. You really can't portray a party like the AfD as racists and then get into bed with them. Scholars would probably also argue that this might only legitimize the party and make it even stronger in future elections as voters are sent the signal that far from being too far to the right, the AfD is just another player within the German party system. So marching orders from Berlin would probably put a stop to any sort of cooperation with them.

So what are the other options then...perhaps another grand coalition could be in the cards for BW. Seems like the only viable gov. majority.

New poll commissioned by German public broadcaster ZDF showing the AfD in 3rd place as well (#s compared to Dec 11):

CDU 37 (-2)
SPD 24
AfD 11 (+2)
Grüne 10
Linke 8 (-1)
FDP 5 (+1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/politbarometer.htm

[Beezer]

Latest Infratest-dimap polls + west and east preferences:

[Beezer]

How do you rate Merkel's handling of the refugee crisis (gut = good, schlecht = bad/poor)?



http://www.heute.de/fluechtlingskrise-merkel-stuerzt-ab-mehrheit-haelt-obergrenze-von-200.000-nicht-fuer-machbar-41820126.html

[Beezer]

Black green sounds interesting. Would the Greens really enjoy playing second fiddle to the CDU though, particularly one that will inevitably move to the right on the migrant topic (and after they've held the office of state premier)? Feels to me like the CDU has backed itself into a corner here. If it enters another high-profile coalition with the Greens my hunch is that even more of the party's right will migrate to the AfD. At the same time it only has one other credible coalition partner, the SPD.

[Beezer]

INSA

[Beezer]

Forsa now has the AfD tieing their all-time high as well.

CDU 37 (-1)
SPD 23
Greens 10
FDP 5
Left 9 (-1)
AfD 10 (+1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/forsa.htm

The AfD has also overtaken both the Greens and left in this poll of polls: http://pollytix.de/wahltrend

CDU 36.4
SPD 23.2
AfD 10.3
Greens 10.0
Left 9.2
FDP 5.2

In such a scenario a CDU-Green coalition would be just shy of a majority.