Ireland General Discussion

[MayorCarcetti]

Knew what it was going to be about when I saw this thread bumped.

Absolutely shocking scenes, unprecedented in modern times in the south at least I would say.
The attack itself on the children was horrific, again some not something we usually see in Ireland. Seems however to be an isolated attack (not much info released on the perpetrator other than he's foreign-born, but has been living here for more than 20 years and is an Irish citizen, and has a history of mental health issues). The irony is that while the far-right have used this to bash immigrants, it was an immigrant (a Brazilian deliveroo driver) that intervened in the attack

Sadly though that didn't matter to these numbskulls who used it as an excuse to 'protest' and then to cause carnage. The 'patriots' bravely showed their opposition to violence by looting Footlocker.

[MayorCarcetti]

Knew what it was going to be about when I saw this thread bumped.

Absolutely shocking scenes, unprecedented in modern times in the south at least I would say.
The attack itself on the children was horrific, again some not something we usually see in Ireland. Seems however to be an isolated attack (not much info released on the perpetrator other than he's foreign-born, but has been living here for more than 20 years and is an Irish citizen, and has a history of mental health issues). The irony is that while the far-right have used this to bash immigrants, it was an immigrant (a Brazilian deliveroo driver) that intervened in the attack

Sadly though that didn't matter to these numbskulls who used it as an excuse to 'protest' and then to cause carnage. The 'patriots' bravely showed their opposition to violence by looting Footlocker.

What’s the far-right in the republic? I don’t recall any populist party in Parliament, and neither FG or FF have any far-right elements

It's very small and disorganised but definitely growing at the moment. . Depends on what you call far-right. As Logical said there's no far-right parties, but there's independents with anti-immigration views. Wouldn't really call them far-right tbh, they're more just saying what they can to get votes tbh.
 
In terms of self-professed far-right people - in the last election, even the most high-profile candidates didn't get anymore than 1-2% in their constituencies. The most successful 'far-right' candidate in recent times was perhaps businessman Peter Casey in the 2018 presidential election with his anti-traveller (Irish gypsy's basically) rhetoric, coming 2nd with 23% of the vote (still way short of Higgins on 55%).

They're kind of seen as a joke in Ireland tbh because they go around things in such a terrible way. Gemma O'Doherty (who was once a well-known reputable journalist before giving the deep end after her husband's death) for instance complained about there being too many black children in a class picture of a rural school. She turned up at the school playground to livestream, only to be confronted by one of their parents. Her and John Waters (infamous newspaper columnist who had a child with Sinead O'Connor who grew to hate him passionately) made a right show of themselves during COVID with their anti-lockdown and anti-vax 'protests'.

Fine Gael are often nicknamed the 'Blueshirts' because the party was founded by the amalgamation of the fascist Blueshirt movement and the Cumann na nGaedheal party in the 30s, but today neither they or FF have any far-right elements in them. The most high-profile far right party at the moment is The National Party but they are a complete joke, who were most recently in the news when some gold-bars they held went missing causing an internal struggle in the party. Without any real party to support, the far-right isn't really taking off in Ireland like it is elsewhere in Europe, but Casey in 2018 showed that with the right candidate, they might.

[MayorCarcetti]

Some happy news after a difficult week, Irish-Israeli Emily Hand has been released by Hamas after 50 days of captivity.

Leo's tweet however on the matter has caused controversy. His biblical reference has earned him some blowback https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1728535065242612184

[MayorCarcetti]

Is organized crime really such a big deal in Ireland? Do they really control the boxing industry?

Gangsters in Ireland get a lot of headlines and infamy probably beyond their influence due to the press. Certain journalists have made careers out of bring them into the public spotlight, the most famous being Veronica Guerin in the 90s. Guerin ultimately paid the price when one of the most famous of these gangsters, John Gilligan had her killed in 1996 (Cate Blanchett later starred in a movie about her life and death), and her death led to a major crackdown on organised crime in Ireland and the formation of the Criminal Assets Bureau which seizes assets of those involved in gangland crime.

North and inner city Dublin has long suffered a problem with drugs thanks to these gangs. Began with Larry Dunne in the 80s who effectively brought heroin into Ireland before be sent to jail, famously uttering the line 'if you think we're bad, you should see what's coming after us' as he was sent down. Martin Cahill, better known as 'The General' was a household name in the 90s, like an Irish Gotti, before being shot by the IRA in 1994. Limerick had a bad gang war in the noughties between the Keane and Dundon families, during which the city was dubbed Stab City, and several innocent people were caught up in the middle of it and killed.

These days the dominant families in Dublin are the Kinahans and the Hutch's and have had a bloody feud since 2013 that's led to several high-profile murders. Christy Kinahan's son Daniel Kinahan is heavily involved in boxing, running his own company MTK Global which includes Tyson Fury and many well-known Irish boxers as clients. His influence has, unsurprisingly, caused much controversy and he operates out of Dubai for fear of arrest in Ireland. In 2016, there was a shooting at a weigh-in at for a boxing match at Dublin's Regency Hotel in which a Kinahan associate was killed, but it was widely believed that Daniel Kinahan was the intended target. The hit was believed to in revenge for the Kinahan's murder of Gary Hutch, nephew of the Hutch family leader, Gerry 'the Monk' Hutch (he's called the Monk because he doesn't smoke, drink or take drugs). This led to an escalation in subsequent years. A member of the Hutch family went on trial for the the murder but it collapsed after the lead detective's suicide. In 2020, Gerry Hutch himself was arrested in Spain for the Regency Shooting and extradited back to Ireland, and a former Sinn Fein councillor with links to the Hutch's, Jonathan Dowdall testified in the trial in 2022. The trial was a shambles, with Dowdall proving to be an unreliable witness, and Hutch was acquitted.

[MayorCarcetti]

Former Taoiseach John Bruton has died at the age of 76 after a long illness.

Served as Taoiseach between December 1994 and June 1997 as head of the 'Rainbow Coalition' made up of Fine Gael, Labour and the Democratic Left, he played an important role in the peace process negotiations. From 2004 to 2009, he served as the EU ambassador to the United States.

[MayorCarcetti]

Quite possibly the most pro-British PM the RoI has ever had.

Very few countries (other than I suppose Belgium) have elected - although admittedly accidentally in Bruton's case - someone who believed that it would have been better for the state of which he was leader not to have existed as an independent entity.

Care to elaborate? Am aware of his infamous fawning over of Charles when he visited the ROI, but was Bruton that consistently pro-UK (and was he punished for that politically?)

Bruton's political hero was John Redmond, leader of the Irish Parliamentary Party between 1900 and 1918, who led the Home Rule movement before the Easter Rising and republicanism superseded it. He effectively said The Rising was a mistake and that staying the course with Home Rule would have been more effective, a view widely ridiculed among Irish historians and even those within his party tried to distance themselves from.

He had a stronger dislike for political violence than most in Irish politics (and his own party even) which was clear in his dealings with Sinn Fein during the peace process and was undoubtedly one of the most sympathetic Taoisigh towards unionism - hence Albert Reynolds calling him 'John Unionist'. His fawning over Prince Charles was even ridiculed in the British press and helped embellish this reputation. One of the last times he made the headlines before his death was in 2021 when he condemned Michael D. Higgins for turning down an invite to a commerative event marking the 100th anniversary of partition and the foundation of Northern Ireland even suggesting it was unconstitutional.

[MayorCarcetti]

https://twitter.com/culladgh/status/1764450387837210929
I see Varadkar hasn't changed his approach...

Yeah, I had just come to this thread to say that I haven't really been following this particular referendum campaign but I had heard that the proposed text was, uh, lackluster from a left-rather-than-liberal perspective.

Amazes me how much they've messed up during this referendum. Seemed once it was just a formality to pass both of these, but through their vagueness and Leo's words this weeks, feels like they might just be about to snatch defeat from the jaws of defeat (the care one absolutely seems like it's in danger)

EDIT: Defeat from the jaws of victory, just noticed my typo there!

[MayorCarcetti]

And the final results on the "Care" referendum: No 73.9%, Yes 26.1%. Even Dún Laoghaire was nearly 58% No.

The care referendum has actually took the record for biggest no vote percentage in a Irish referendum, just beating out the 73.1% against lowering the age to be eligible to run for president to 21 back in 2015 (ran at the same time as the marriage equality referendum). The family referendum meanwhile is 3rd on the list.

Here's the total list of rejected referendums and the percent of no votes.

[MayorCarcetti]

Rose Dugdale, a fascinating figure of the Troubles, has died.

An English heiress and debutante who was educated in Oxford, she rebelled against her upbringing and became involved in the IRA in the early 70s. In January 1974, she was involved in a plot with her future husband Eddie Gallagher to drop bombs in milk churns on the RUC station in Strabane (a day she later said was the best of her life). Even more memorably in April, she took part in a raid which stole a Vermeer from a Russborough House in Co. Wicklow, with a ransom of £500,000 and the release of the Price sisters (who'd been convicted of IRA bombings). The pictures were retrieved a week later and Dugdale (who was pregnant at the time) was arrested.

She served six years in prison during which her and Gallagher (who'd been imprisoned for the kidnapping of Dutch industrialist Tiede Herrema) became the first prisoners to marry in an Irish prison. Released in 1980, she remained involved in the cause ever since.

[MayorCarcetti]

Varadkar to stand down as Taoiseach and FG leader.

Was this telegraphed at all? Seems to have come out of nowhere.

Nope, totally kept under wraps until shortly before announcement. Irish Independent a 'political earthquake' announcement about to be made followed shortly afterwards by the news. Nobody expected it at all - some rumours of June election but not of Leo resigning.

Quite shocked tbh - while polls weren't favourable towards, general expectation was he'd remain until election at least. The referendums didn't help but would be surprised if that would force him out. No job lined up he says, could a personal decision

[MayorCarcetti]

Any chance Varadkar is planning to run for President either in 2025 or at a later date?

More likely to be eyeing up a position in Brussels or in California.

Yeah European position is the obvious one at moment. FF are due the commissioner position, but perhaps Varadkar is aiming toward President of the Council (still seems too soon to count his chickens though).

President is very unlikely - it's a popularity contest by and large and he's a deeply unpopular man. In any case, Mairead McGuinness is all but a shoo-in to be their candidate.

[MayorCarcetti]

Inevitably talk has already turned to who will succeed Varadkar and the big favourite is Simon Harris, the current Minister for Higher Education and previously Minister for Health. Simon Coveney, who lost the 2017 leadership election to Varadkar has already counted himself out.

[MayorCarcetti]

He's not even the most famous Irish Harris, that would be Richard Harris who was a Catholic. As far as I know Simon Harris is also one, though he is from Greystones, the town with the highest proportion of Protestants in the south (10%). Heather Humphreys, who's also mentioned in that article I linked, is a Presbyterian who's father was in the Orange Order.

But yeah, lot of Irish Catholics will have English/Norman surnames. Case in point - Gerry Adams. Honorable mention goes to Sean Lemass though who has a surname of Huguenot origin.

[MayorCarcetti]

Harris hasn't even declared, but already several senators and backbench TD's have coalesced around Harris, and it's expected more (including some ministers) will follow today. Some believe it's going to be a coronation as things stand but there's seemingly some interest from Pascal Donohue and Heather Humphreys in running. Donohue previously looked set to go for IMF Chair after a widely-praised spell as president of the Eurogroup (the confederation of EU Finance Ministers) but incumbent Kristalina Georgieva has decided to run for a second term, ending his chances.

In terms of how FG electoral's system works by the way, TD's and Senators counts for 65% of the vote, the party membership is 25% and local representatives (e.g councillors) are 10%. Last time round, Simon Coveney actually had almost double the votes of Varadkar among the membership (7,051 to 3,772), lost narrowly out with local representatives (100 to Leo's 123) but got trumped amongst the parliamentary party (Leo 51, Coveney 22).

[MayorCarcetti]

Donohue and Humphreys have now counted themselves out. Despite some within the party wishing for a contest, Harris seems set to elected unopposed.

[MayorCarcetti]

With nominations ending today and no other candidates declaring, Simon Harris has become Fine Gael leader today. Should things go to plan, he'll be elected Taoiseach by the Dail after the Easter recess (9 April).

[MayorCarcetti]

He's not even the most famous Irish Harris, that would be Richard Harris who was a Catholic. As far as I know Simon Harris is also one, though he is from Greystones, the town with the highest proportion of Protestants in the south (10%). Heather Humphreys, who's also mentioned in that article I linked, is a Presbyterian who's father was in the Orange Order.

But yeah, lot of Irish Catholics will have English/Norman surnames. Case in point - Gerry Adams. Honorable mention goes to Sean Lemass though who has a surname of Huguenot origin.

Learning that a member of the Republic of Ireland's Cabinet is a Presbyterian with family in the Orange Order is... quite the surprise to me.

Irish politics is a lot more complicated than one would think!

There's a sizeable Protestant population in Cavan-Monaghan, especially in Monaghan (more Presbyterians there than in Fermanagh), and there has usually been a "Protestant" slot on the FG ticket in the constituency - Robert Faussett from Cavan in the 1980s, succeeded by Seymour Crawford from Monaghan in the 1990s, who was in turn succeeded by Humphreys.

Mentioned Greystones has the highest proportion of Protestants of any town in the south, but the village Humphreys from is actually one of if not the only places (officially a townland) in the Republic that has a Protestant majority.

Going back further, another well-known Protestant Monaghan politician was Billy Fox, who was shot dead in 1974.. He was the only member of the Oireachtas to be assassinated during The Troubles (and first since Minister for Justice Kevin O'Higgins in 1927).

[MayorCarcetti]

Behold the Harris Hurricane:

IrelandThinks, for the Sunday Independent:

SF 26 (-1)
FG 21 (-1)
Ind/Oth 18 (+4)
FF 16 (-1)
SD 6 (-)
GP 4 (-)
Aontú 4 (-)
Lab 3 (-1)
SWP/SP 2 (-)

It's a complete mystery why replacing one weird and offputting leader who'd been around forever with another (differently) weird and offputting leader who's been around forever has not boosted FG's poll ratings into the stratosphere.

What sort of government would those figures lead to? Another FG/FF/Greens coalition?

This is a breakdown of this poll I believe when it comes to estimated seats 88 needed for a majority so the current coalition would fall short. Currently the most logical match-up would be Sinn Fein, Fianna Fail and the Social Democrats but whether that could come to fruition is another thing.

[MayorCarcetti]

Behold the Harris Hurricane:

IrelandThinks, for the Sunday Independent:

SF 26 (-1)
FG 21 (-1)
Ind/Oth 18 (+4)
FF 16 (-1)
SD 6 (-)
GP 4 (-)
Aontú 4 (-)
Lab 3 (-1)
SWP/SP 2 (-)

It's a complete mystery why replacing one weird and offputting leader who'd been around forever with another (differently) weird and offputting leader who's been around forever has not boosted FG's poll ratings into the stratosphere.

How long until we start seeing some numbers for Independent Ireland? I have to assume some of the Ind/Oth vote increase is driven by right-wing voters flocking to II.

Independent Ireland haven't really taken off yet and tbh I can't see them getting too much steam. They'll have a niche in rural areas but there's not a charismatic figure between their current lot of TD's, Michael Collins from Cork (no not that one), Michael Fitzmaurice from Roscommon-Galway and Richard O'Donoghue from Limerick to real ignite the burgeoning far-right movement in Ireland. That said they did get a bit of a coup this week in announcing Ciaran Mullooly, a well-respected and well-known former RTE reporter as a candidate for the European election in Midlands-North West.

On that note actually, there has been a somewhat of a growing trend towards 'famous faces' running in the European elections recently in Ireland. Back in the day there was Dana (1970 Eurovision winner) who was elected as independent conservative Catholic values candidate on the back of a presidential run. Then there was Mairead McGuinness who started off a tv presenter on the agricultural show 'Ear to the Ground'. Having gone on to be vice-president of the European Parliament and a Commissioner, she looks set to emulate Mary McAleese as a former journalist to be elected President

As for the present, Fine Gael have Maria Walsh as an MEP in the Midlands-North West, a Rose of Tralee winner (the Rose of Tralee been the endearingly antiquated inspiration for Father Ted's Lovely Girls competition), and in this election, in the same constituency, will be running Nina Carberry, a jockey who is married into the famous Walsh horse racing family. Fianna Fail meanwhile will have Cynthia Ní Mhurchú, a qualified barrister and former broadcaster who hosted the 1994 Eurovision Song Contest.

[MayorCarcetti]

Behold the Harris Hurricane:

IrelandThinks, for the Sunday Independent:

SF 26 (-1)
FG 21 (-1)
Ind/Oth 18 (+4)
FF 16 (-1)
SD 6 (-)
GP 4 (-)
Aontú 4 (-)
Lab 3 (-1)
SWP/SP 2 (-)

It's a complete mystery why replacing one weird and offputting leader who'd been around forever with another (differently) weird and offputting leader who's been around forever has not boosted FG's poll ratings into the stratosphere.

What sort of government would those figures lead to? Another FG/FF/Greens coalition?

This is a breakdown of this poll I believe when it comes to estimated seats 88 needed for a majority so the current coalition would fall short. Currently the most logical match-up would be Sinn Fein, Fianna Fail and the Social Democrats but whether that could come to fruition is another thing.

How open is Fianna Fáil to joining a coalition with Sinn Fein? I was under the impression that FF would be really resistant to such a coalition.

It sort of uncertain, but yes there is clearly massive reservations, and if it did happen there would be major questions over it's stability. Martin in the last year for instance has both ruled it out and not ruled it out. Like the grand coalition, it's the kind of thing that seems unthinkable until it isn't. Kinda depends on the leadership of the party too - Martin is clearly reluctant but last time around Jim O'Callaghan, who was perhaps the most high profile rebel in the party, seemed interested.

[MayorCarcetti]

Simon Harris has been formally elected as Taoiseach today. The Dail voted 88 to 69 in favour of him, with the coalition parties been joined by a number of independents.

The cabinet reshuffle hasn't been as dramatic as some may have anticipated. Junior ministers Patrick O'Donovan and Peter Burke have been promoted - O'Donovan to Higher Education (Harris's old post) and Burke to Entreprise (replacing Coveney) but otherwise it largely as you were. McEntee survives at Justice despite many calls for her removal. A few more Minister for States (i.e junior ministers) will be announced tomorrow