When did the republicans win big cities in presidential election last time?
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  When did the republicans win big cities in presidential election last time?
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Author Topic: When did the republicans win big cities in presidential election last time?  (Read 652 times)
buritobr
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« on: August 07, 2021, 04:00:56 PM »

Some of them we are sure

Miami: Bush 1988
Chicago, San Francisco: Eisenhower 1956
Philadelphia: Hoover 1932
New York City, Boston: Coolidge 1924

Some cities are located in a county that includes areas outside the city too, that includes suburbs. If we have data only for the county and not the city, it is hard to know.

In 1984, Ronald Reagan was the last republican to win the Los Angeles County. He had 54.5%, Mondale had 44.4%. We don't know if Reagan won LA city.
In 2004, Bush Jr was the last republican to win the Harris County. He had 54.8%, Kerry had 44.6%. We don't know if Bush won Houston.
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« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2021, 04:11:39 PM »

Some other consolidated city-counties or independent cities are as follows:

Baltimore: 1956
Denver: 1980
New Orleans: 1972
Richmond: 1972
St. Louis: 1924
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2021, 04:52:21 PM »

Calvin Coolidge was definitely the last Republican to have won a vast majority of big cities, though all major cities did trend heavily in favor of Donald Trump in 2020.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2021, 10:15:19 PM »

Portland, Oregon last went Republican in 1960. And I'm pretty certain that Nixon in 1972 was the last Republican to win Seattle. Phoenix probably last went Republican in 1988 for George H.W. Bush. As for Los Angeles, I suspect Hoover in 1928 was the last Republican to win it without any doubts, but Eisenhower may have in 1952/56. Houston probably last went Republican in 1984 for Reagan.
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« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2021, 03:37:12 PM »

Did Bush win Dallas in 2000 as in 2004 when he won Dallas County by 1 point , he lost Dallas proper 57-42 .

While he only won Dallas county by 8  points in 2000 meaning a universal swing would result in Gore still winning Dallas proper by 9 but given he didn’t really do any worse in the Dallas suburban counties like Collin in 2004 than he did in 2000 , he probably didn’t either in Northern Dallas or the Dallas county suburbs , so it could be possible he won Dallas as well in 2000 and that entire swing in 2004 came from the collapse in the city itself
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2021, 09:50:34 PM »

Some of them we are sure

Miami: Bush 1988
Chicago, San Francisco: Eisenhower 1956
Philadelphia: Hoover 1932
New York City, Boston: Coolidge 1924

Some cities are located in a county that includes areas outside the city too, that includes suburbs. If we have data only for the county and not the city, it is hard to know.

In 1984, Ronald Reagan was the last republican to win the Los Angeles County. He had 54.5%, Mondale had 44.4%. We don't know if Reagan won LA city.
In 2004, Bush Jr was the last republican to win the Harris County. He had 54.8%, Kerry had 44.6%. We don't know if Bush won Houston.

McGovern won LA city in 1972, so Mondale certainly won it in 1984. 1956 is probably the last year Republicans won Los Angeles city.
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TransfemmeGoreVidal
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« Reply #6 on: August 10, 2021, 02:11:38 PM »

Coolidge was definitely the last Republican to dominate in cities nationwide. 1928 is sort of an unsung realignment election in that it was the beginning of Democrats coming to be seen as the more socially liberal and cosmopolitan party.
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