2012 NDP leadership convention

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Those 99.93% of Canadians have 49.99% of the power

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The sort of people who might react in horror to the prospect of a party leader with union ties are the sort of people who will not vote for a social democratic party under any circumstances. End of.

I disagree. PEI especially is a place where this is untrue. In PEI a "Social Democrat" is a "really really left-wing person but someone I might stomach if I REALLY have to..." where as a Socialist is a "COMMUNIST OMG STALIN! STALIN!!! ARREST HIM!!!" and a Union Man is a "COMMUNIST OMG, STALIN! OR WAIT IS IT HITLER? OMG"

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Nominations happen at the riding level. I think it's wrong to tell voters in those nomination meetings that they are somehow "bad people" - and that's the implication - for voting for a man. In fact, if Dewar is serious, he should drop out and endorse Ashton or Nash.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The NDP probably can find enough areas not scared off by union men and socialism to patch together a majority, but it is of course easier otherwise.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

C-town is the most winnable riding on the island for the NDP. Remember that PEI was the best province for the PC Party from 93-03, and then was the 2nd worst province for the CPC right up until Harper proved he can win government and compete seriously - now the CPC is doing very well there and won the vote in that province.

If the NDP can win government, or even a second term in opposition, places like Charlottetown open up to them. Due to the history, even Egmont is a possible gain. I simply used PEI as an example to say that Canada is not the UK, and while people in Ontario, BC, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Quebec might be comfortable with a left wing NDP leader, and, while you could patch together a majority using these provinces alone, that if you want to win more than a few seats in Alberta, or rural Atlantic Canada, that you need to sell yourself as a moderate - weather or not you actually are matters not.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Brosseau probably, or someone else who wants out.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

There are always people who win elections and realize "this is not for me". Look at the number of new MPs elected in 1993 that did not stand again in 1997, despite being in safe seats.

All Topp has to do is find them a party job that pays equal (IE buy them off) and pouf, he has a seat.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Good news for Nash

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Mulcair was heckled, page 2.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

It was there when I read it?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I *wish* I had booze. It referred to Mulcair starting to talk about (some plan of his that is controversial) and some members of the audience starting to "make noise" but also referred to it being unclear what they were saying because Mulcair was unfazed and just kept on going. To me that would not have had any real impact, and my thinking is that they could not source the info, so they had to remove it.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/politics/2011/12/09/new-democrat-leadership-race-hits-vancouver-live-blog


"However, Mulcair's biography, read by the moderator, seemed to attract interruptions (heckles?) from one side of the room, though it was not clear about what; he was later interrupted several times during one speech."

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/politics/2011/12/11/peggy-nash-nets-ndps-top-endorsement-laytons-finance-critic?page=0%2C0

Funny that the newspapers all think Nash is rather left wing

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/politics/2011/12/11/peggy-nash-nets-ndps-top-endorsement-laytons-finance-critic?page=0%2C0

Funny that the newspapers all think Nash is rather left wing

Maybe because she is very much an Old Labour-type in every sense of the word?

Earlier in the thread I tried to argue Nash was too leftwing for her own good and everyone in this thread and their dog tried to tell me I was crazy.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

It's complicated

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

 Is/was there not a debate in BC a little while ago / coming up very soon?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

He probably thought it was a bit too personal for this forum.

This is so. Nick will get a longer explanation after I've cleaned up here.

Aye, Al and I have had a talk over PM and I better understand what he is thinking, and I've apologized.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Parties guard membership lists with their lives

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Also, based partly on the numbers I've discussed in the past, and, the new poll, and, a few other numbers, I've come up with my own projection as to where I feel the race stands at the moment.

Topp - 32%
Mulcair - 32%
Nash - 24%
Others - 12%

I think far more "NDP supporters" back Mulcair (heavily) but far more "NDP members" (very heavily) back Topp

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

It's a control thing. Are you a member of any party? Ask them to see their membership list and see what they tell you. If you can convince them to let you see it, tell them you want to share this information with another party and see what they threaten you with (clue: lawsuits, and they wont be very nice about it, in fact, they'd probably kick you out of the party just for asking)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Also, based partly on the numbers I've discussed in the past, and, the new poll, and, a few other numbers, I've come up with my own projection as to where I feel the race stands at the moment.

Topp - 32%
Mulcair - 32%
Nash - 24%
Others - 12%

I think far more "NDP supporters" back Mulcair (heavily) but far more "NDP members" (very heavily) back Topp

So Topp wins on the first ballot, since obviously only members can vote.

Well this is my estimation of the first ballot. Remember Mulcair did have a huge lead in the poll, even if it's an outlier, we can't ignore it. As well, memberships are being sold every day, and that's good for Mulcair.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

 

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Updated to reflect Chisholm dropping out of the race
http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1105379

edit
further edited the curve to reflect the new poll.

edit edit
further updated to reflect commentary that came along with the poll

edit edit edit
further further updated to link to each candidate's website

More edits:
> made the text about Chisholm larger so people dont scroll past it by accident.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

FB fans:


Cullen - 5343
Nash - 5289
Dewar - 3890
Topp - 3097
Saganash - 2786
Mulcair - 2175
Ashton - 681
Singh - 634



Twitter fans:

Dewar - 7327
Topp - 4723
Nash - 4318
Cullen - 3088
Ashton - 2852
Saganash - 2446
Mulcair - 2107
Singh - 643



COMBO:

Dewar - 11217
Nash - 9607
Cullen - 8431
Topp - 7820
Saganash - 5232
Mulcair - 4282
Ashton - 3533
Singh - 1277

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Hopefully Saganash and Singh will be next. I presume that the candidates will tell their supporters who to preference for. Either Dewar or Cullen could be chosen as a compromise candidate if the convention ends up like LPC '06.

I'd like to see Saganash, and Ashton drop, and Dewar or Cullen (hopefully Dewar to Cullen) throw to the other prior to the convention, then have the top 4 run.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

True, but I think Cullen has more staying power due to his age and location (as the only western candidate)