Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[njwes]

Maybe a bit obscure, but figured this was the best place to ask: what was the ideology of the Italian Communist Party in the 80s? Or maybe more precisely the last 5 or 10 years before it split into the PRC and the PDS? Were any of the party leaders/politicians still actual doctrinaire Marxists/Marxist-LeninistS by that point, or had everyone more or less evolved into sort of milquetoast Euro social democrats?

[njwes]

Does "forming a new government" just mean trying to re-negotiate Italia Viva back into the fray?

No, it can mean basically anything, although I assume that one is the preferential option (actually, do I? it all feels so in flux).

As best as you can tell, is the current Italian government situation very much changing day by day and all the politicians are just improvising as they go along? Or, do you think this was all part of some months long "plan" (even if sort of clumsy and shambolic) on the part of the governing parties and Italia Viva? Because all of the Conte government drama and activity in the last month seems sort of unnecessarily chaotic and destabilizing lol

[njwes]

Apologies if this was addressed way back in the post, but if the next election produces a right-wing majority and FI, Lega, and FdI agree to form a government (which I'm assuming they would) how much could such a government actually get done and accomplish? I understand that they're both* positioned as "right-wing" and populist-y (maybe more accurate for FdI than Lega) and that they've both positioned themselves as somewhat anti-left/anti-globalist/anti-neoliberal--finding the right terminology here is tricky lol--but how much common ground actually exists between them in terms of reforms, laws, regulations, policy etc that they wish to enact (or maybe repeal)?

*Using "both" because I assume that FI wouldn't have a ton of say in a right-wing government's actual policy, but I could be totally wrong.

[njwes]

When is M5S going to splinter apart? They don't seem to have a raison d'être anymore other than maybe clinging to power for its own sake, but one would assume their voters might not be fond of that

[njwes]

When is M5S going to splinter apart? They don't seem to have a raison d'être anymore other than maybe clinging to power for its own sake, but one would assume their voters might not be fond of that

Not in the foreseeable future, I think.
M5S is a useless party in various ways, but I absolutely think it has its raisons d'être - providing a "non-aligned" option to low-info voters, supporting or at least paying lip service to the South (especially that), scooping up #populist voters who also think Salvini is a fascist, this sort of things.

The latter is an incredibly important function on the Italian political scene right now. I don't even want to think about how much support Lega and FdI might be pulling without a non-fash #populist option for people to vote for.

Journalist and Senator Gianluigi Paragone, who was expelled from M5S a year ago, has decided to go overboard with... I'm not sure how to call his ideology exactly, but he has officially founded a party: Italexit, which is anti-EU, anti-establishment, anti-neoliberal, and 'souverainist'. Actually the party was born months ago, but I have only caught up to it now because lately Paragone is a bit more in the spotlight as one of the few people vocally in opposition to the Draghi government.

Oh my, Michel Onfray says hello

The last thing you guys need is to start importing pretentious French pseudo-inellectual wankery

Is this the same Michel Onfray who ten or fifteen years ago tried to present himself as a sort of Continental Richard Dawkins?

Educate yourself on what fascism actually is, and stop saying "#fash" unless you're on the Red Scare subreddit plz.

[njwes]

When is M5S going to splinter apart? They don't seem to have a raison d'être anymore other than maybe clinging to power for its own sake, but one would assume their voters might not be fond of that

Not in the foreseeable future, I think.
M5S is a useless party in various ways, but I absolutely think it has its raisons d'être - providing a "non-aligned" option to low-info voters, supporting or at least paying lip service to the South (especially that), scooping up #populist voters who also think Salvini is a fascist, this sort of things.

How about now? 

[njwes]

Apologies if this was addressed way back in the post, but if the next election produces a right-wing majority and FI, Lega, and FdI agree to form a government (which I'm assuming they would) how much could such a government actually get done and accomplish? I understand that they're both* positioned as "right-wing" and populist-y (maybe more accurate for FdI than Lega) and that they've both positioned themselves as somewhat anti-left/anti-globalist/anti-neoliberal--finding the right terminology here is tricky lol--but how much common ground actually exists between them in terms of reforms, laws, regulations, policy etc that they wish to enact (or maybe repeal)?

*Using "both" because I assume that FI wouldn't have a ton of say in a right-wing government's actual policy, but I could be totally wrong.

1. Forza Italia would not have a ton to say but it would have still a bit to say (in part because most likely its support would be decisive for such a government, just like the support of Italia Viva was decisive for Conte II).

2. Actually it is Lega that has the more populist-y posturing (and more downscale electorate), even though Fratelli d'Italia is likely a bit more populist/interventionist on concrete policy.

3. I think they share enough common ground to pass, or try to pass, quite a substantive agenda, but I would guess that a big hurdle may arise when the topic of regionalism comes up, to make an obvious example. There may be some attrition on some soshul ishoos as well, but it's unclear.*

4. I know what you are trying to get at by "anti-neoliberal" but it's never a bad day to remind that using the original definition of the word the Italian right-wing is, well, pretty neoliberal.

*it would be absolutely hilarious if, while in government together, Salvini tried to give some concreteness to his pipe dream of reopening brothels and Meloni destroyed his proposal playing the #feminist card

Sorry for being late on this but thanks so much for this--I clearly had a lot of misconceptions! Very interesting stuff. Following up on a few of these points:

#2: I'm actually shocked that Lega has the more downscale electorate! Does that mean then that FdI's core voters are more firmly middle class, maybe petit bourgeois types? And, who does the downscale electorate in Southern Italy vote for? The PD? Maybe a combination of that and 5Star, and just turning out less?

#3: Well that's sort of what I was getting at, what would that "substantial agenda" actually BE? If not regionalism, and not EU-related, and maybe not much on economics, what exactly? And the same re: social issues--I imagine that it would be difficult for them to even do a tightening up of abortion regulation, for instance.

#4: I hate the term neoliberalism and I'm aware that "anti-neoliberal" is even more of a nightmare lol. I wish I could stop using it when I think about politics but it's often just so useful. That's why I used "anti-left/anti-globalist/anti-neoliberal", just trying to paint a picture. I wish there was a less muddy terminology, but the closest thing I could think of in the Anglo-Saxon tradition for those stances would probably be something like "traditionalist conservatism" which is itself a difficult and contentious term and more importantly doesn't actually seem to describe Lega (maybe it's more fitting for some segments of FdI, I'm not sure).

Last thing: the changing of your avatar deeply startled me 😂 Thanks for all the good work you do here.

[njwes]

Meanwhile, since this is mid-to-late August and most people (even most pollsters lol) are on vacation...

Thanks for this--I was getting worried about the shocking dearth of Italy polls in recent weeks! 

[njwes]

So does Draghi remain on as the Prime Minister-in-name until the election? Or will the president appoint a stopgap/caretaker PM?

[njwes]

What's a good place to watch the results/tally?

[njwes]

Why does Sicily have a relatively low drop, do we think?

I would assume it's because there's also a regional election going on there today

[njwes]

Italians--congratulations on your first female and weeb PM.

While I understand the neo-fascist (and just fascist) origins of the FdI, I've heard multiple takes among Anglo media that Meloni herself is more in the Thatcher mode than the Le Pen mode. Any truth to that?