JLT's House Predictin' Thread 2010

[TeePee4Prez]

Democratic-Held Seats

ALL FLIPS EXCEPT KS-03

Lean Republican Takeover (6 seats)
AL-02 (Bobby Bright)
ID-01 (Walt Minnick)
KS-03* (Dennis Moore) Stays Dem.
LA-03* (Charlie Melancon)
TN-06* (Bart Gordon)
TN-08* (John Tanner)

Pure Tossup (15 seats)

AR-02 (Vic Snyder)- FLIPS
CO-04 (Betsy Markey)- FLIPS
MD-01 (Frank Kratovil)- FLIPS
MS-01 (Travis Childers)- FLIPS
NH-02* (Paul Hodes)- STAYS
NM-02 (Harry Teague)- STAYS
NY-29 (Eric Massa)- FLIPS
NC-08 (Larry Kissell)- STAYS
OH-01 (Steve Driehaus)- STAYS
OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy)- STAYS
PA-07* (Joe Sestak)- STAYS
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)- FLIPS
VA-02 (Glenn Nye)- STAYS
VA-05 (Tom Perriello)- FLIPS
WA-03* (Brian Baird)- STAYS

Lean Democratic (16 seats)

FL-08 (Alan Grayson)- STAYS
FL-22 (Ron Klein)- STAYS
FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas)- STAYS. LOOK FOR UPSET.
IL-14 (Bill Foster)- STAYS
IN-09 (Baron Hill)- FLIPS
NV-03 (Dina Titus)- STAYS
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter)- STAYS
NJ-03 (John Adler)- STAYS
NY-01 (Tim Bishop)- FLIPS
NY-19 (John Hall)- STAYS
NY-23 (Bill Owens)- FLIPS
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri)- FLIPS
PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper)- STAYS
SC-05 (John Spratt)- STAYS
TN-04 (Lincoln Davis)- STAYS
TX-17 (Chet Edwards)- STAYS

Likely Democratic (12 seats)

ALL STAYS.

AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell)
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)
IL-11 (Debbie Halvorson)
IA-03 (Leonard Boswell)
MI-07 (Mark Schauer)
MO-04 (Ike Skelton)
NY-20 (Scott Murphy)
OH-16 (John Boccieri)
OH-18 (Zack Space)
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin)
VA-11 (Gerry Connolly)
WI-08 (Steve Kagen)

Democratic Watch List (21 seats)

ALL STAYS.

AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick)
CA-47 (Loretta Sanchez)
CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter)
GA-02 (Sanford Bishop)
GA-08 (Jim Marshall)
GA-12 (John Barrow)
HI-01* (Neil Abercrombie)
MI-09 (Gary Peters)
MO-03 (Russ Carnahan)
NM-01 (Martin Heinrich)
NY-13 (Michael McMahon)
OR-05 (Kurt Schrader)
PA-04 (Jason Altmire)
PA-10 (Chris Carney)
PA-12 (Jack Murtha)
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez)
UT-02 (Jim Matheson)
VA-09 (Rick Boucher)
WI-03 (Ron Kind)
WI-07 (Dave Obey)
WV-01 (Alan Mollohan)


Republican-Held Seats

Lean Democratic Takeover (2 seats)

WILL FLIP.  AGREED.

DE-AL* (Mike Castle)
LA-02 (Joseph Cao)

Pure Tossup (2 seats)
IL-10* (Mark Kirk)- FLIPS
PA-06* (Jim Gerlach)- FLIPS

Lean Republican (4 seats)
CA-03 (Dan Lungren)- STAYS
NE-02 (Lee Terry)- STAYS
PA-15 (Charlie Dent)- STAYS
WA-08 (Dave Reichert)- STAYS

Likely Republican (3 seats)

STAYS.

FL-10 (Bill Young). LOOK FOR UPSET.
KS-04* (Todd Tiahrt)
MN-06 (Michele Bachmann). WISHED IT WAS AN UPSET.

Republican Watch List (12 seats)

ALL STAYS.

AL-03 (Mike Rogers)
CA-44 (Ken Calvert)
CA-45 (Mary Bono Mack)
FL-12* (Adam Putnam)
FL-16 (Tom Rooney)
IL-13 (Judy Biggert)
MI-11 (Thad McCotter)
MN-03 (Erik Paulsen)
MO-08 (Jo Ann Emerson)
OH-02 (Jean Schmidt)
OH-12 (Pat Tiberi)- DEMS CAN GET ACT TOGETHER AND MAKE NOISE.
VA-01 (Rob Wittman)

[TeePee4Prez]

All said, I'm at GOP +11 seats for now.

[TeePee4Prez]

PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) - moved to Likely Democratic from Democratic Watch List - Fitzpatrick running; I'm still not impressed, but he should still have a good fundraising base.

Of all the Philadelphia suburban counties, Obama did the worst in Bucks County and Mike Fitzpatrick is pretty popular there.  However, I think Pat Murphy will eventually hold his own here.  If Pat Murphy were to retire or run for Senate then yeah this would definitely be a GOP takeover in 2010.  I don't know why the hubbub over PA-7- it's FAR more Democratic and liberal than PA-8- Lentz should have it comfortably, but we will see friction there.