JLT's House Predictin' Thread 2010

[Mr.Phips]

Why the hell did Moore retire anyway?  He could have at least waited until 2012 when Democrats would have likely had a better chance at holding the seat. 

One district that I am interested in is OH-01.  The district voted heavily for Obama and came within 3,000 votes of going for John Kerry and should be reasonably safe for a moderate Democrat like Driehaus.  If he can pile up a 10,000 vote lead in the Democratic leaning Cincinatti/Hamilton part of the district, it will be more than enough to offset any margin that  Chabot gets in the heavily Republican chunk of Butler county in the district. 

[Mr.Phips]

Why the hell did Moore retire anyway?  He could have at least waited until 2012 when Democrats would have likely had a better chance at holding the seat. 

One district that I am interested in is OH-01.  The district voted heavily for Obama and came within 3,000 votes of going for John Kerry and should be reasonably safe for a moderate Democrat like Driehaus.  If he can pile up a 10,000 vote lead in the Democratic leaning Cincinatti/Hamilton part of the district, it will be more than enough to offset any margin that  Chabot gets in the heavily Republican chunk of Butler county in the district. 

Moore probably saw some bad polling numbers. It's not really a surprise -- he's been voting the Democratic party line this year, which I think is the first time he's ever done that.

OH-01 would be an easy hold for Driehaus if Chabot weren't running again. Normally, incumbents don't do well in two year later rematches, but if the climate is good enough for the Republicans, Chabot could very well make a David Price/Ted Strickland-esque comeback. I'd put his chances below Pearce's, though.

I think Chabot is probably the only Republican in a House race that could still be successful tied to Bush.  Chabot voted with Bush almost 100% of the time for eight years and this along with literature aimed at black voters saying that if Chabot wins and Republicans take the House, Obama will be impeached, should be enough to save Driehaus. 

[Mr.Phips]

Really good list. I personally still think Republicans will win back the house in November.

The fact you have NY-4 as one of the seats will flip throws your credibility out the window.

Tell me about it.  Even John Kerry won that district by double digits. 

[Mr.Phips]

A few more updates before the 4th quarter fundraising numbers are posted next week.

Democratic seats:

AR-01 (Marion Berry) - added to Lean Republican Takeover - Berry retiring; until a good Democratic candidate steps in this is pretty much considered a loss.
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords) - added to Democratic watch list - She actually has a legitimate challenger now.
IN-09 (Baron Hill) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Bad poll, you know the drill.
NM-02 (Harry Teague) - moved to Lean Republican Pickup from Pure Tossup - Teague is in the same boat as Chabot, I doubt his poll numbers are any better (especially since the district is more Republican). I'm going on a hunch for this one, but I've expected him to be a one-termer pretty much since he was elected. The terrible climate for Dems and former Rep. Pearce going back to his seat are pretty much sealing this one.
NY-01 (Tim Bishop) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Bishop up by 2 in a SUSA poll.
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - moved to Democratic Watch List from Likely Democratic - Still no opponent, but he's a freshman in a swing district, so he's not safe until we see who his opposition ends up being.
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri) - moved to Pure Tossup from Lean Democratic - Rematch with Hanna.
OH-01 (Steve Driehaus) - moved to Lean Republican Pickup from Pure Tossup - Terrible poll numbers for Driehaus. This is likely to be a common refrain this year.

Republican seats:

IL-13 (Judy Biggert) - dropped from the list - Harper's fundraising is terrible, this race is not going to be close.

NY-01 a tossup?  That poll included no voters under the age of 30 and Bishop still led by two points.  Even a Republican poll put him up 20 points a few weeks back. 

[Mr.Phips]

Dont know why people are now suddenly saying NJ-12 will be competitive.  The one county(Hunterdon) that gave Republicans a base in the district was removed in redistricting. 

[Mr.Phips]

Personally I see CO-3 flipping before CO-7, as the former still has strong Republican areas, while CO-7 has trended to the left significantly since its creation. However, both have popular incumbents who really fit their districts, so either way it would take a lot to flip either.

Frazier has raised more money and seems like a better candidate all-around. Other than that I don't see much difference.

Dont know why people are now suddenly saying NJ-12 will be competitive.  The one county(Hunterdon) that gave Republicans a base in the district was removed in redistricting.  

I'm not trying to go all Mr. Moderate and say "OMGZ CHRISTIE = REPUBLICANS WIN NEW JERSEY!!!", but they have raised a bumper crop of rich people to run in Democratic districts this year (against Holt, Pallone, and Rothman). Holt has the least money of the three, and stranger things have happened, especially since there's no statewide race to drive turnout.

Being rich is usually not enough to overcome a district that leans very heavily to the other party.  Look at Democrats in 2008 like Jim Harlan and Linda Ketner.  Ketner was able to make it close by spending millions of dollars, but still couldnt overcome the overall tilt of the district.  

Christie won NJ-12 by 50%-43% and owed his margin of victory here to the fact that Corzine did far worse than any Democrat has a right to do in Monmouth county  Democrats typically lose that county by around 10 points, but Corzine lost it by 30. 

[Mr.Phips]

Fair enough.

I have this gut feeling now that we have reached an inflection point, and there is maybe now a 60% chance that there will be a wave, and the GOP will take back the House, and then some. The economic news is just terrible, the Dems are demoralized, with the Left mad at Obama, Obama has really mishandled the immigration issue (this business of not wanting to make the border more secure in order to have leverage to legalize millions of folks, cannot possible sit well with a majority of the voters), and the Dems borrowing another 26  billion to keep public employees employed (ya they say it is paid for, but they ain't cutting food stamps, so that will go by the wayside, just like the slash in doctor reimbursements), insurance premiums are ratcheting up, and emergency rooms are more clogged than ever, since so many docs will not take medicaid patients anymore, because they lose money on them. Can the news get any more terrible?

It looks to me like we may well be heading into a perfect storm, and the boat is not going to make it back to port.

Most of the bad economic news is stuff that doesnt matter to ordinary Americans such as trade deficits and manufacturing numbers.  The unemployment rate has fallen from 10.1% late last year to 9.5% and probably wont rise much if at all before the election.  Most of the real bad economic news will come after the election(stuff like the fact that another recession started in August, unemployment back over 10% ect).