JLT's House Predictin' Thread 2010

[JohnnyLongtorso]

This week's changes, all Dems:

AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
CO-03 (John Salazar) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
CO-04 (Betsy Markey) - Lean R -> Likely R
MI-01* (Bart Stupak) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
OH-18 (Zack Space) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
SD-AL (Stephanie Herseth Sandlin) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
TN-08* (John Tanner) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
TX-17 (Chet Edwards) - Lean R -> Likely R

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Rather strikingly, I just figured out that of the 82 incumbent Democrats on my list as being potentially vulnerable, 54 of them were elected between 2006 and 2009. In fact, the only seats the Democrats picked up over the past four years that I don't have on my list are CT-02 and NY-25 (VT-AL doesn't really count, since Sanders caucused with the Dems).

I'm not sure why you'd leave NY-25 off the list -- it's certainly not what I'd consider "safe."

Internal polls are what they are, but ...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Rather strikingly, I just figured out that of the 82 incumbent Democrats on my list as being potentially vulnerable, 54 of them were elected between 2006 and 2009. In fact, the only seats the Democrats picked up over the past four years that I don't have on my list are CT-02 and NY-25 (VT-AL doesn't really count, since Sanders caucused with the Dems).

I'm not sure why you'd leave NY-25 off the list -- it's certainly not what I'd consider "safe."

Internal polls are what they are, but ...

I could probably put another 20-30 seats on my list as having a greater-than-zero chance of flipping, but I'm pretty skeptical that these third or fourth-tier opportunities are going to go anywhere. It won't be a blowout, but I don't think Maffei is in any serious danger.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Okay, here's a list of seats with greater-than-zero chances of flipping, but which I'm not putting on my list. If any of these end up flipping, I guess I'll feel silly.

AZ-07
AR-04
GA-12
IL-08
ME-01
ME-02
MA-04
MA-06
MI-15
MN-07
MN-08
NJ-06
NM-03
NY-02
NY-04
NY-22
NY-25
NC-02
OK-02
OR-04
PA-13
RI-01
TN-05
TX-27
UT-02
WA-09

[Vepres]

FWIW, Cook has moved NY-25 into the lean category.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Weekly update:

Democratic seats:

CA-11 (Jerry McNerney) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter) - Likely D -> Lean D
CT-05 (Chris Murphy) - Likely D -> Lean D
FL-02 (Allen Boyd) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
GA-02 (Sanford Bishop) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
MI-09 (Gary Peters) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
MN-01 (Tim Walz) - Likely D -> Lean D
MS-04 (Gene Taylor) - Likely D -> Lean D
NV-03 (Dina Titus) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
NH-02* (Paul Hodes) - Lean R -> R-Leaning Tossup
NJ-12 (Rush Holt) - Likely D -> Lean D
OH-13 (Betty Sutton) - Lean D -> Likely D
PA-07* (Joe Sestak) - Lean R -> R-Leaning Tossup
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
WI-07* (Dave Obey) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
WI-08 (Steve Kagen) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup

Republican seats:

AZ-03* (John Shadegg) - Returned to list at Lean Republican
MN-06 (Michele Bachmann) - Dropped from the list

[Wonkish1]

I think you should add a few of those "greater than 0 chance" races to your likely dem list because otherwise your going to wake up on the 3rd with a couple of races that flip and are not on your list and a lot that are going to be close that are not on your list.

First of all, I actually have MN 8 flipping to GOP. Id say that the chances of that are pretty close to walz in mn 1 taking his seat and is the most likely of the old boys(dingell, frank, oberstar, hoyer) to fall. I also have MA 6 flipping GOP. Both of those I have flipping GOP while I'm predicting that CA 20 is going to stay dem when that is currently on realclears tossup column.

2nd 1s that I have extremely close on the dem side:
ME 2
MA 4
NM 3
TX 27
WA 9

On the GOP side:
AZ 3 been calling this one close for a while. It took a poll for everybody to see this one
MI 3 here's another for you. This one is a lot closer than you think.

Ill add some more for you in a min

[Wonkish1]

There are a ton of closer races than:
PA 4: altmire is pretty damn safe
ID 2: same for minnick
Oh 13: pretty much throwing in the towel now

1 more for each party that I have very close that you should have listed in at least likely territory
Dem: NY 4
GOP: NE 2

Otherwise I have a few that I have closer than some of your "likely's" like MI 15, or OR 4. And I reorder a lot of yours in the likely, lean, tossup areas but ill just leave it. At least they are on your list.

I also have my big, big sleeper this race which you would need to read through my thread o get.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The penultimate update. I broke down and added a few more seats.

Democratic seats:

AZ-07 (Raul Grijalva) - Added to list at Likely D
GA-08 (Jim Marshall) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
IL-17 (Phil Hare) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
IN-08* (Brad Ellsworth) - Lean R -> Likely R
KY-06 (Ben Chandler) - Likely D -> Lean D
MD-01 (Frank Kratovil) - Lean R -> Likely R
MI-07 (Mark Schauer) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
NM-02 (Harry Teague) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
NY-01 (Tim Bishop) - Tossup -> D-Leaning Tossup
NY-19 (John Hall) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - Likely D -> Lean D
NY-22 (Maurice Hinchey) - Added to list at Likely D
NC-08 (Larry Kissell) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
NC-11 (Heath Shuler) - Likely D -> Lean D
ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
OH-06 (Charlie Wilson) - Likely D -> Lean D
OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy) - Lean R -> Likely R
OR-05 (Kurt Schrader) - Lean D -> Tossup
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy) - Lean R -> R-Leaning Tossup
PA-17 (Tim Holden) - Dropped from the list
TN-04 (Lincoln Davis) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
VA-02 (Glenn Nye) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R

Republican seats:

FL-12* (Adam Putnam) - Added to list at Likely R
IL-10* (Mark Kirk) - Tossup -> D-Leaning Tossup
MI-03* (Vern Ehlers) - Added to list at Likely R

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Last group of changes. I added a few more seats.

Democratic seats:

AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords) - Tossup -> D-Leaning Tossup
CA-20 (Jim Costa) - Likely D -> Tossup
CO-03 (John Salazar) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
ID-01 (Walt Minnick) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
IL-17 (Phil Hare) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
IA-03 (Leonard Boswell) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Lean D
ME-01 (Chellie Pingree) - Added to list at Likely D
MA-10* (Bill Delahunt) - Tosup -> D-Leaning Tossup
MN-08 (Jim Oberstar) - Added to list at Lean D
MS-04 (Gene Taylor) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
NV-03 (Dina Titus) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
NJ-03 (John Adler) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
NM-01 (Martin Heinrich) - Lean D -> Tossup
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - Lean D -> Tossup
NY-23 (Bill Owens) - D-Leaning Tossup -> Tossup
NC-02 (Bob Etherige) - Added to list at Tossup
OR-05 (Kurt Schrader) - Tossup -> R-Leaning Tossup
SC-05 (John Spratt) - R-Leaning Tossup -> Lean R
VA-09 (Rick Boucher) - Lean D -> Tossup
VA-11 (Gerry Connolly) - Lean D -> D-Leaning Tossup
WA-03* (Brian Baird) - Lean R -> R-Leaning Tossup

Republican seats:

FL-25* (Mario Diaz-Balart) - Lean R -> Tossup


I guess it's time to make a final prediction, although it seems rather pointless, since nobody knows what the hell is going on.

R pickups: All Likely/Lean/Leaning Tossups (43)
D pickups: All Lean/Leaning Tossups (3)

Now, to the pure tossups...

AL-02 (Bobby Bright) - R win - Bright is scary resilient, since he's essentially a Republican, but I just don't see how anyone with a D by their name can hold on in a heavily-Republican Deep South district.
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney) - D hold - McNerney's a good guy, I think he hangs on by the skin of his teeth.
CA-20 (Jim Costa) - R win - I think the SUSA poll is overstating things, but Costa seems to be in trouble here.
CO-03 (John Salazar) - R win - I expect Buck and Tancredo to pull Tipton across the finish line.
FL-22 (Ron Klein) - D hold - West is the wrong candidate for this district, despite his huge money advantage.
IL-14 (Bill Foster) - D hold - Foster seems to be the strongest of the endangered Illinois incumbents, oddly.
MI-07 (Mark Schauer) - D hold - Can't believe Schauer isn't losing this (even to Walberg), but Snyder seems to have no coattails.
MO-04 (Ike Skelton) - R win - Another heavily-Republican district, and Missouri is swinging hard to the Republicans this year.
NM-01 (Martin Heinrich) - D hold - The district tends to favor incumbents.
NY-19 (John Hall) - R win - Tightened up in the last few minutes, but this is exactly the kind of district that Republicans are primed to win back this year.
NY-20 (Scott Murphy) - R win - Might be putting too much stock in that Siena poll, but Murphy's barely an incumbent.
NY-23 (Bill Owens) - R win - Owens's best shot is for people to not know Hoffman has dropped out. Thin campaign strategy.
NY-24 (Mike Arcuri) - D hold - Another one I can't believe isn't falling like a domino.
NC-02 (Bob Etherige) - D hold - Again, the SUSA/Civitas poll is a little suspect, in my opinion. Plus Ellmers is a rotten candidate. Not that that's stopping voters elsewhere.
NC-08 (Larry Kissell) - R win - Kissell is going to get dragged down by Marshall's defeat in this district.
OH-18 (Zack Space) - R win - Ohio's just not a good place for a Democrat to be right now.
PA-10 (Chris Carney) - D hold - Carney's lucky to have such a terrible opponent; anyone stronger and he'd be dead.
TN-04 (Lincoln Davis) - R win - I think Davis might eke out a win here, since Desjarlais is yet another mediocre candidate, but I'm doubtful.
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez) - R win - Ciro's a weak incumbent, and his opponent has the right ethnicity (and more money).
VA-09 (Rick Boucher) - D hold - Morgan Griffith will be a Congressman by 2013, but I don't think he will be one next year.

So that's 11 more Republican pickups.

And the Republican ones...

FL-25* (Mario Diaz-Balart) - R hold - Awful, awful Republican candidate, but the Cuban vote is very hard to peel off for the Democrats.
HI-01 (Charles Djou) - D win - Hanabusa underpolled before, I think she is again.

One more Dem pickup, which puts us at a net +50 Republican gains. If things go even more badly for the Dems, I can see most of the Dem-leaning tossups and a few of the Lean Ds falling, so there you go.