Sestak
jk2020
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Posts: 13,282
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« on: September 29, 2022, 06:33:54 PM » |
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Looking how close they were to being "fully wrong" on any state each year:
1992: 1.9 points, Florida (for Bush)
2000: 2.4 points, Minnesota (for Gore)
2004: 3.4 points, Michigan (for Kerry)
2008: 5.2 points, Georgia (for McCain)
2012: 2.0 points, North Carolina (for Romney)
2016: -0.8 points, Wisconsin (projected for Clinton, won by Trump)
2020: 2.4 points, Nevada (for Biden)
The pattern of media approach to these races in general is fairly obvious here; continuously decreasing the uncertainty while their projections became more and more solid over time until their overconfidence led to the near-miss in 2012 where Obama swept the competitive races and then the complete miss in 2016. Amusingly, despite the widest undecided range yet the 2020 range wasn't any more secure than any of the 2000s picks.
Not sure if anything can be gleaned from the actual states here; the 2004 Michigan and 2008 Georgia are interesting when noting each state's role as the major surprise a dozen years later, but this doesn't really fit the rest of them; Minnesota at least has been fool's gold for the GOP for years and some of the others make this narrative questionable as well.
2020 is also the first time here where the state where they were closest to being wrong/the most wrong was a state they called for the eventual winner.
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