"There are only 35 months until the start of the presidential primary season, reminds Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's nonpartisan Center for Politics.
So he's already dissecting the potential contenders in his Crystal Ball newsletter.
This week it was a look at the Democrats, and Sabato agrees that New York Sen. Hillary Clinton is the early frontrunner. Her pluses, he says, are her name, her fund-raising ability and her fan base in the party. Her minuses: baggage and history, Sabato says.
Then there's Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry ("almost no enthusiasm" among Democrats for a rerun, Sabato says), former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (didn't do much for 2004 ticket, Sabato says), Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen, North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley, Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich, Sens. Joe Biden of Delaware and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin -- and Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana.
Bayh, of course, has deflected questions about '08 almost daily.
Sabato points to the political credentials of Bayh winning in a very Republican state, his centrist voting record, his strong family image and "warm, modest style" for television.
"But does he have the passion and commitment to win?" Sabato asks. "Can he rev up his often-bland rhetorical skills? Most of all, can he ever convince an increasingly liberal Democratic electorate to select him instead of an ideological soul mate like Hillary Clinton?"
We have 35 months to find out."
http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050227/NEWS0104/502270413/1008/NEWS01
