YouGov/Economist: Biden +9%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/vgqowgynze/econTabReport.pdf

Sampling period: June 14-16, 2020
1160 registered voters
MoE: 2.9%

Biden 50%
Trump 41%
Other 3%
Would not vote 2%
Undecided 4%

[YE]

Last poll from them was +7 I believe.

[Buzz]

Last poll from them was +7 I believe.

+8

[Holmes]

Last poll from them was +7 I believe.

+8

Their previous poll for the Economist was +7. The previous YouGov poll was +8 and the previous YouGov/Yahoo News was also +9.

[Gass3268]

First time Biden has hit 50% in a Economist poll.

[Virginiá]

I really can't stop wondering exactly how durable this lead is. What's going to happen in October when as usual, the race breaks towards one candidate? Is Trump going to consolidate a lot of his wavering supporters, or will Biden's lead solidify? I mean it could also break even further towards Biden, but I don't know. Everything about this political environment screams landslide, but years of hyper-polarized elections make it hard to believe things will actually be this good for the Democrats.

That being said, I think if the race were held today, it'd be devastating for Republicans, but it's not today.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I really can't stop wondering exactly how durable this lead is. What's going to happen in October when as usual, the race breaks towards one candidate? Is Trump going to consolidate a lot of his wavering supporters, or will Biden's lead solidify? I mean it could also break even further towards Biden, but I don't know. Everything about this political environment screams landslide, but years of hyper-polarized elections make it hard to believe things will actually be this good for the Democrats.

That being said, I think if the race were held today, it'd be devastating for Republicans, but it's not today.

Biden needs to start defining himself and his priorities soon. His campaign has been mostly strongly anti-Trump. While the anti-Trump ads and energy are probably good for donations, I don't think they do much to persuade people at all. People already have very defined opinions on Trump. A lot of people are pretty neutral when it comes to Biden.

[wbrocks67]

Trump response to protests approval
Adults: 34/53 (-19) … -17 LW
RV: 35/57 (-22) … -19 LW

Trump job approval
Adults: 41/53 (-12) … -9 LW
RV: 42/55 (-13) … -13 LW

Trump virus approval
Adults: 40/51 (-11) … -6 LW
RV: 41/54 (-13) …. -12 LW

Trump fav
Adults: 41/54 (-13) … -14 LW
RV: 42/57 (-15) … -16 LW

Biden fav
Adults: 43/49 (-6) … -5 LW
RV: 48/50 (-2) … - 2 LW

Males: Trump +1 (LW: Trump +2)
Females: Biden +18 (LW: Biden +14)
18-29: Biden +37 (LW: Biden +24)
30-44: Biden +24 (LW: Biden +21)
45-64: Trump +1 (LW: Biden +4)
65+: Trump +10 (LW: Trump +7)
Whites: Trump +5 (LW: Trump +5)
Blacks: Biden +73 (LW: Biden +63)
Hispanics: Biden +31 (LW: Biden +12)

Huge move toward Biden among 18-29 year olds from last week, along with big movement among Blacks and Hispanics. Hispanics is now at Hillary/typical Dem levels, while the 18-29 margin is even bigger than the 2018 exit poll (Dem +35)

[wbrocks67]

I really can't stop wondering exactly how durable this lead is. What's going to happen in October when as usual, the race breaks towards one candidate? Is Trump going to consolidate a lot of his wavering supporters, or will Biden's lead solidify? I mean it could also break even further towards Biden, but I don't know. Everything about this political environment screams landslide, but years of hyper-polarized elections make it hard to believe things will actually be this good for the Democrats.

That being said, I think if the race were held today, it'd be devastating for Republicans, but it's not today.

I think things could definitely change a bit, bc there's still major polarization, but I've also come around to the thinking that Trump only got 46% of the vote in 2016. Republicans got 44% of the vote in 2018. Both times, the "not Trump or Republican" vote was about +8 (54-46 in 2016, 53-44 in 2018). So I think Biden leading by that much (or more) is realistic, and I think, despite the fact that Trump can do a LOT of things that won't affect his base of supporters - he's basically continued to alienate and push away pretty much everyone who isn't that 40% of support.

[Virginiá]

I really can't stop wondering exactly how durable this lead is. What's going to happen in October when as usual, the race breaks towards one candidate? Is Trump going to consolidate a lot of his wavering supporters, or will Biden's lead solidify? I mean it could also break even further towards Biden, but I don't know. Everything about this political environment screams landslide, but years of hyper-polarized elections make it hard to believe things will actually be this good for the Democrats.

That being said, I think if the race were held today, it'd be devastating for Republicans, but it's not today.

I think things could definitely change a bit, bc there's still major polarization, but I've also come around to the thinking that Trump only got 46% of the vote in 2016. Republicans got 44% of the vote in 2018. Both times, the "not Trump or Republican" vote was about +8 (54-46 in 2016, 53-44 in 2018). So I think Biden leading by that much (or more) is realistic, and I think, despite the fact that Trump can do a LOT of things that won't affect his base of supporters - he's basically continued to alienate and push away pretty much everyone who isn't that 40% of support.

Yeah, I mean, I've never been a supporter of the "45% will vote R no matter what" - I think it's more like 40%, and an additional 3-4% are basically Likely R - not going to stray in most situations, but a particularly bad election could dislodge some or all of them. But even so, if all Trump could get was 42%, for example, that would be a horrendous result. You'd have to have a lot of 3rd party support to make it less damaging, otherwise. Those kinds of numbers downballot would be a Watergate-level wipeout.

I don't know. Maybe it's time for this generation's first double digit presidential win. We haven't had one since 1984. It's bound to happen eventually, and I can't think of a better political climate for it to happen in.

[The Mikado]

I wouldn't rule out a result like Biden 54, Trump 44. And yeah, it'd be a slaughter in the EC.

[ProudModerate2]

Biden's RCP average now at +8.5

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Biden's RCP average now at +8.5

More importantly: he's above 50% in the average.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden's RCP average now at +8.5

More importantly: he's above 50% in the average.

Which is something I don't think ever happened in 2012 or 2016 after those general election matchups were settled.

[The Mikado]

Biden's RCP average now at +8.5

More importantly: he's above 50% in the average.

Which is something I don't think ever happened in 2012 or 2016 after those general election matchups were settled.

Yup. Last general election where a candidate broke 50% in the RCP average was Obama 2008.

[Lief 🗽]

Crazy that Clinton never broke 50%, even after the Hollywood Access tape or after the DNC/the Khan attacks in August. The warning signs were there all along...

[Sbane]

Crazy that Clinton never broke 50%, even after the Hollywood Access tape or after the DNC/the Khan attacks in August. The warning signs were there all along...

The 2016 election was the Republicans to win. Rubio would have likely won the PV against Hillary. Jeb and Cruz would do a little worse but probably better than how Trump did in the PV.

[tagimaucia]

Biden's RCP average now at +8.5

More importantly: he's above 50% in the average.

Which is something I don't think ever happened in 2012 or 2016 after those general election matchups were settled.

Yup. Last general election where a candidate broke 50% in the RCP average was Obama 2008.

And even in 2008, Obama never broke 50% until October.