OK-5: Horn of Life

[terp40hitch]

Lean R

[terp40hitch]

Lean R

This district is based in Oklahoma City which has been trending Democratic for some time anyway.  Certainly Lean D.

It’s been going Democratic but it is far from a Democratic district, it’s R+10 and Horn only won by one point in a D+7 year so its far from Lean D unless you are excepting a D+6 year which is unlikely in a presidential year.

[terp40hitch]

Wait would Atlas be calling a Clinton +13 district where Trump got a lower % than Romney, but voted for the Republican governor candidate by 9% as the state became 24% less Republican and elected a Republican congressperson on their coattails Lean R?

Just asking.

Huh?

The suburbs are trending D. Get over it. Tilt R/Toss-Up

I really hate every time somebody says suburbs are trending D, yea for the last two elections suburbs went more Democratic mostly because Trump but Before that there was no trending D, many trended R for Romney and in the 2014 midterms

[terp40hitch]

The suburbs are only getting bluer, so for anyone to have this as anything but a tossup doesn't make much sense.

Suburbs are turning more blue if we follow the trends of the past two election cycles but winning a pretty red district in midterms is much different then winning when the presidents on the ballot and when you have challengers that can win back some suburban votes (middle aged, white, women) so it’s not so crazy to say Horns district is Lean R.

[terp40hitch]

Wait would Atlas be calling a Clinton +13 district where Trump got a lower % than Romney, but voted for the Republican governor candidate by 9% as the state became 24% less Republican and elected a Republican congressperson on their coattails Lean R?

Just asking.

Huh?

The suburbs are trending D. Get over it. Tilt R/Toss-Up

I really hate every time somebody says suburbs are trending D, yea for the last two elections suburbs went more Democratic mostly because Trump but Before that there was no trending D, many trended R for Romney and in the 2014 midterms

Last time I checked Donald Trump is still in office and will still be in the 2020 election.

I totally understand what you mean but election trends happen over many election cycles even decades. A trend would be Virginia is trending blue which has been shown to be happening for the past 10+ years but you can’t say the suburbs are trending blue because just four years ago with a Rubio or Bush or Kasich as nominee they probably would have continued voting strong red as in years before. A better a much more scientific accurate way to try and push the suburbs are trending blue is by saying under Trump’s control of the gop, suburbs are much less likely to support Republicans as in years past and can become a trend if not stopped by 2024.