My prior is that no matter what it's going to be an uphill fight for Republicans. No matter how popular Hogan is if he's not on the ballot, it's up to a new Republican (even Boyd Rutherford) to win over Democrats. There's already underlying pressure from an eight year itch, incredibly strong anti-Republican sentiment in the state, plus who knows what the state of the National Republican party will be in 2022. It's worth noting that Hogan already won because of the perfect storm in 2014: horrible non-incumbent candidate, plus nationwide R-wave, plus low turnout. Those things are unlikely to happen again in 2022, even I think if a Dem wins the Presidency.
I hold a similar view. The only way I see this being competitive is if Jealous wins the nomination again.
