Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[RI]

Well Estes' margin just narrowed to 5.7% with 88% reporting. Appears the Election Day vote in Sedgwick was decisively more Democratic than the ED vote elsewhere.

Percentage lead has dropped a bit, but raw vote lead hasn't really. Consistent with an ED split in Sedgwick.

[Xing]

All things considered, this was a pretty good result for the blue team. It's not necessarily indicative of anything by itself, though. If, however, Democrats win GA-06 and MT-AL (or win one and come very close in the other), then you could probably make the argument that this is part of a larger pattern, and that there's a massive anti-Trump backlash brewing.

[Matty]

All things considered, this was a pretty good result for the blue team. It's not necessarily indicative of anything by itself, though. If, however, Democrats win GA-06 and MT-AL (or win one and come very close in the other), then you could probably make the argument that this is part of a larger pattern, and that there's a massive anti-Trump backlash brewing.

The issue, of course, is that even ni 2014  kansas was embarrassingly close for the republicans.

The bigger issue, also, is that a lot can happen till 2018, especially with all these war drums.

[Badger]

only the trolls are gloating, whoever knows anything about this stuff is quite serious.

Special elections are special. Turnout was by all accounts abysmal.

Also, what is happening in kansas is NOT happening in other states. The state is in the midst of a finance crisis, with the guy running today directly tied to it.

All politics is local.

Remember kansas during the 2014 national gop wave?

Everyone says this when their side got shorted.

[cinyc]

AP calls the race for Estes.

[heatcharger]

✓ Estes (R) - 57,954 - 52.0%
Thompson (D) - 51,494 - 46.2%
Rockhold (L) 1,911 - 1.7%

94% reporting (580 of 620 precincts)

What a pathetic showing by the Libertarian. I expected them to peel off more disaffected Republicans.

[Adam Griffin]

✓ Estes (R) - 57,954 - 52.0%
Thompson (D) - 51,494 - 46.2%
Rockhold (L) 1,911 - 1.7%

94% reporting (580 of 620 precincts)

What a pathetic showing by the Libertarian. I expected them to peel off more disaffected Republicans.

Disaffected Republicans just end up not voting in these types of elections.

[Dr. Arch]

✓ Estes (R) - 57,954 - 52.0%
Thompson (D) - 51,494 - 46.2%
Rockhold (L) 1,911 - 1.7%

94% reporting (580 of 620 precincts)

What a pathetic showing by the Libertarian. I expected them to peel off more disaffected Republicans.

Disaffected Republicans just end up not voting in these types of elections.

So about +6 in the end. Amazing.

[Wiz in Wis]

FWIW, Pompeo never won by less than 30 points. Estes looks likely to win by no more than 6. That's a 12 point swing... more than enough to flip the House.

[Maxwell]

What an embarrassing result for Republicans.

Spin, spin, spin.... LOL!

what spin? this is a district Trump won by nearly 30.

wow you guys averted complete disaster in a district you had no business losing. great job.

[Thomas Jackson]

What an embarrassing result for Republicans.

Spin, spin, spin.... LOL!

what spin? this is a district Trump won by nearly 30.

wow you guys averted complete disaster in a district you had no business losing. great job.

A Trump will win it again by 30 points.

Estes isn't Trump.

[Matty]

Do people forget kansas 2014?

This state should not be considered any sort of microcosm.

GA-6 far more interesting.

[Nyvin]

What an embarrassing result for Republicans.

Spin, spin, spin.... LOL!

If the GOP actually lost this race...they're the ones that would need a LOT of spin spin spin.

[heatcharger]

✓ Estes (R) - 57,954 - 52.0%
Thompson (D) - 51,494 - 46.2%
Rockhold (L) 1,911 - 1.7%

94% reporting (580 of 620 precincts)

What a pathetic showing by the Libertarian. I expected them to peel off more disaffected Republicans.

Disaffected Republicans just end up not voting in these types of elections.

Well, the Libertarian candidates got >4% in both the Senate and Gubernatorial races here in 2014. Alas, turnout was pretty bad in this race, so you're probably right.

[GlobeSoc]

Could someone construct a swing map of the counties?

[JMT]

Wow, will Estes won this obviously should not have been this close. Does this set up Thomson to run against Estes again in 2018? Or for a different office? I imagine Dems will think highly of Thompson after this

[Maxwell]

Think of it this way - this is like if Republicans gave Democrats a run for their money in Maryland's 8th district, currently represented by Flawless Beautiful Curly Haired Jaime Raskin.

[publicunofficial]

Sad to see so many people on Twitter just seeing this as "DNC screws up another race"

[Kantakouzenos]

Seeing as the Dems did quite well in this race, could this be indicative of what happens in Georgia and Montana coming up?  I know these elections can be pretty local, but this certainly isn't the first special election dems have done better in so far.

[Thomas Jackson]

Democrats poured MILLIONS into this seat. MILLIONS.

Republicans didn't.

Estes sleepwalked through the campaign.

"Estes was a particularly weak candidate. As a member of Gov. Sam Brownback’s administration, he scored a 2 of 10 score on candidate strength."

[Matty]

Think of it this way - this is like if Republicans gave Democrats a run for their money in Maryland's 8th district, currently represented by Flawless Beautiful Curly Haired Jaime Raskin.

If maryland currently had a historic budget deficit that forced closures at schools and credit ratings to get heavily downgraded, while also having anemic economic growth, a very liberal republican could end up doing decent against someone directly tied to the mess.

[Xing]

All things considered, this was a pretty good result for the blue team. It's not necessarily indicative of anything by itself, though. If, however, Democrats win GA-06 and MT-AL (or win one and come very close in the other), then you could probably make the argument that this is part of a larger pattern, and that there's a massive anti-Trump backlash brewing.

The issue, of course, is that even ni 2014  kansas was embarrassingly close for the republicans.

The bigger issue, also, is that a lot can happen till 2018, especially with all these war drums.

That's why I said that we should wait for GA-06 and MT-AL to determine if there's a larger trend here, or if it's just a matter of Brownback's unpopularity.

Btw, am I crazy for thinking that Democrats have a shot at the gubernatorial race here in 2018?

[Nyvin]

Democrats poured MILLIONS into this seat. MILLIONS.

Republicans didn't.

Estes sleepwalked through the campaign.

"Estes was a particularly weak candidate. As a member of Gov. Sam Brownback’s administration, he scored a 2 of 10 score on candidate strength."

Uhh...no they didn't.   National Democrats didn't invest in this election at all.

KS Dems did a small amount but not "millions"

The RCCC did invest millions in this race.

[Maxwell]

Democrats poured MILLIONS into this seat. MILLIONS.

Republicans didn't.

Estes sleepwalked through the campaign.

"Estes was a particularly weak candidate. As a member of Gov. Sam Brownback’s administration, he scored a 2 of 10 score on candidate strength."

now you're just lying. you're confusing this with GA-06.

[Badger]

What an embarrassing result for Republicans.

Spin, spin, spin.... LOL!

what spin? this is a district Trump won by nearly 30.

wow you guys averted complete disaster in a district you had no business losing. great job.

A Trump will win it again by 30 points.

Estes isn't Trump.

Yes, Trump is by every measure a far, far worse candidate.

Blaming this on Estes is profoundly obtuse.