Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[2952-0-0]

Ekos says Liberals are approaching Chretien levels in Ontario. NDP recovering with clear lead in Quebec.

[Holmes]

Those EKOS Manitoba numbers lol lol lol

With all these riding polls showing the NDP leading in Quebec and BC ridings that they probably shouldn't be leading in anymore, especially when their national and provincial numbers are down, it would be funny if they were the biggest beneficiaries of FPTP this election.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Maybe this will be a dumb comment, but could it be that national NDP support dropped mostly because NDP support dropped in ridings where they were losing anyway? In other words, could it be that the push towards strategic voting sent Dippers flooding into the Liberal column in places like, say, Mississauga, where the NDP would not have ever won?

So nationally, their numbers are down, but it may not translate into as devastating a loss of seats as one would think?

I don't know.

[Holmes]

Maybe. But they were poised to make some nice gains in Ontario and the Atlantic and they're not going to anymore. I also want to see how Montreal is looking.

[DC Al Fine]

Those EKOS Manitoba numbers lol lol lol

Sample sizes of 28 and 42 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba respectively. No wonder those numbers look off

[DC Al Fine]

Since we've been talking about potential leadership candidates, does any one have any ideas who will run to be Elizabeth May's eventual successor?

[cp]

Maybe David Chernushenko? He ran in Ottawa Centre with respectable numbers in the 00s and ran against May for the leadership the last time around. Lately he's been elected to the Ottawa City Council. He's only in his early 50s and would be viable if the position opened up; I tend to think that's unlikely, however.

[Holmes]

If May has any say, the next Green leader will be a woman.

[Boston Bread]

Maybe this will be a dumb comment, but could it be that national NDP support dropped mostly because NDP support dropped in ridings where they were losing anyway? In other words, could it be that the push towards strategic voting sent Dippers flooding into the Liberal column in places like, say, Mississauga, where the NDP would not have ever won?

If we take both the riding polls and national polls at face value, this is the only valid conclusion. For the most part, the NDP have held up well in riding polls in places where they are usually competitive, better than what the projections suggest. Most of the riding polls where they are underperforming projections are indeed places like suburban Ottawa and Toronto where they were never competitive.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well the other thing to note is that the party that has (according to most polls) dropped the most votes from last time round is not the NDP...

[andrew_c]

Since we've been talking about potential leadership candidates, does any one have any ideas who will run to be Elizabeth May's eventual successor?

If Jo-Ann Roberts wins Victoria, she'll be a contender for the Green leadership.

[RogueBeaver]

Dan Gagnier resigns from the Grit campaign after his lobbying advice to EnergyEast was revealed.

[DC Al Fine]

Dan Gagnier resigns from the Grit campaign after his lobbying advice to EnergyEast was revealed.

Not that it will make a huge difference, but its nice to see the Liberals finally get a negative story.

[DL]

Since we've been talking about potential leadership candidates, does any one have any ideas who will run to be Elizabeth May's eventual successor?

If Jo-Ann Roberts wins Victoria, she'll be a contender for the Green leadership.

Very little chance of that. i hear Murray Rankin is leading her by a 2 to 1 margin

[DC Al Fine]

Since we've been talking about potential leadership candidates, does any one have any ideas who will run to be Elizabeth May's eventual successor?

If Jo-Ann Roberts wins Victoria, she'll be a contender for the Green leadership.

I'd extend that to any Green candidate. If the Greens have a caucus of 2-3, any non-May MP will be a leadership contender.

[Holmes]

Dan Gagnier resigns from the Grit campaign after his lobbying advice to EnergyEast was revealed.

Not that it will make a huge difference, but its nice to see the Liberals finally get a negative story.

The next few years of Liberal rule will be a slow drip of negative stories and scandals, as is usual of Liberal governments.

[bobloblaw]

What will the next four years be like if it's a Liberal majority with an NDP opposition?

the CPC will be in opposition, not the NDP

[Phony Moderate]

What will the next four years be like if it's a Liberal majority with an NDP opposition?

the CPC will be in opposition, not the NDP

Though, as pointed out on the previous page, if those riding polls turn out to be accurate...

[2952-0-0]

Dan Gagnier resigns from the Grit campaign after his lobbying advice to EnergyEast was revealed.

Not that it will make a huge difference, but its nice to see the Liberals finally get a negative story.

The next few years of Liberal rule will be a slow drip of negative stories and scandals, as is usual of Liberal governments.

That's the same with every non-totalitarian government...

[Boston Bread]

The NDP won't form opposition if the Liberals win a majority. Quebec would need to switch to the Liberals en masse, depriving the NDP of too many seats for them to be competitive with CPC.

However, an LPC minority where it's LPC-CPC-NDP in terms of votes and LPC-NDP-CPC in terms of seats is not out of the question if look at the province wide spreads in the EKOS and Nanos polls. The NDP would still sweep most of Quebec; if the Conservatives are also crushed to Hudak levels in Ontario that would put the NDP's seat count within reach of the Conservatives despite having less votes.

[Holmes]

A LPC minority and an NDP opposition... if the NDP sweeps Quebec, LPC sweeps Ontario and the Atlantic, and the CPC are down to historically low levels in BC, they're just left with Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and those aren't enough seats. This is interesting.

[RogueBeaver]

Justin in Outremont tomorrow. Flashbacks to 2007, when the riding association blocked him from running against Mulcair.

[King of Kensington]

Whatever happened to Pundits Guide?  No postings since September 28?

[2952-0-0]

The Dan Gagnier revelation may have just saved Mulcair's job. It reminds Quebecers of everything they hate about the Liberals, allowing the NDP to bounce to 35% provincewide and save most of its seats. The Liberal lead in Ontario is too big to change, though.

[cp]

Possibly. If there's one thing left that can swing large numbers of votes it's major newspaper endorsements. Any idea when the G&M is going to drop theirs?