2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Hatman 🍁]

Regional breakdowns: http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/2011.08.31_Ontario_Vote.pdf

NDP ahead in the North, close in Hamilton-Niagara.

[Hatman 🍁]

Scarborough SW is a possibility, probably not in SRR.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder what kind of clown they'll find to put up in Orleans.

Still no one. Seems to be the only riding in the city where the NDP is completely dead. No active riding association, no active campaigns, nothing. ever. It's too bad, I know a lot of public servants live in the riding.

I would blame suburbia, but Nepean-Carleton has a competent candidate in Ric Dagenais, and Carleton-MM even had a contested nomination.

Yeah, they nominated some unknown Haitian student who had no campaign whatsoever in May at the last minute after their original candidate endorsed the Liberal as did some previous federal candidate. But they can still get up to 14% or so, which considering how they nominate clowns and have no base whatsoever is scarily impressive.

Imagine if they actually ran a decent candidate?

[Hatman 🍁]

Another NFLD Poll:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2011/09/06/nl-cra-poll-906.html

                     May
Tories: 54% (57%)
NDP: 24% (20%)
Liberal: 22% (22%)

Good news for the NDP, and those from NFLD can maybe add more detail... 50+% still means a majority, and if this (NDP) number is focused on the Avalon-St. John's could this mean more seats? Another potenial for history if the NDP unseats the Libs at opposition.

Ooh. I'll have to do a Nfld projection, finally. Might take a couple days, but I will be doing this before my next Ontario prediction.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sneak preview of my NL projection:

The province of Newfoundland and Labrador will also be going to the polls this fall. Their election date is set for October 11. And now that there has finally been another poll released in the province, I can do my first official projection for Canada's youngest province.

Corporate Research Associates released a poll Tuesday indicating that very little has changed since previous poll from last May. The poll, which was conducted from August 15-31 indicated the following,

Prog. Cons.: 54%
NDP: 24%
Liberal: 22%

Despite still having the support of a majority of voters, the Tories are actually polling their worst since probably before Danny Williams was leader. The NDP likewise is in all likelihood at their highest polling numbers ever.

Background
Popular Tory Premier Danny Williams resigned at the height of his game last December. Williams was first elected in the 2003 election with a large majority of the vote (59%). His popularity was so high, that he won the 2007 election with the highest popular vote percentage in Canadian history, with 70% of th vote! It's a wonder how his party didn't win every seat in the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly. Somehow the Liberals won 3 seats and the NDP won 1. The Tories won 44. Despite Williams leading the provincial Tories, he hated the federal Tories. His “Anybody But Conservative” campaign in the 2008 federal election helped shut out the Harper conservatives on the rock. The Tories did come back in 2011 by winning Labrador, but were still shut out on the island.

Williams was replaced by Newfoundland's first female Premier, Kathy Dunderdale. Despite slipping in the polls, her party is still well in the lead. We were bound for having an all-female leader election this Fall, but it was not to be. Liberal leader Yvonne Jones had to step down last month due to cancer, and the Liberals quickly elected former MHA (Member of the House of Assembly) Kevin Aylward to lead them into the election. The NDP, which currently holds 2 seats in the Canadian House of Commons in the province is led by former nun Lorraine Michael. Her seat is the only one held by the party in the House of Assembly.

Races to watch

Labrador

It appears that every riding in Labrador will be interesting to watch come election night. Cartwright—L'Anse au Clair is probably the only sure bet, as it has always voted Liberal. The only question is how will Yvonne Jones fair there after she stepped down as Liberal leader due to cancer. Labrador West  has been a riding that has flipped between all three parties in recent elections. Tory  MHA Jim Baker is stepping aside, creating a showdown between the Tories and the NDP here. This riding is the NDP's best shot at a second seat in the province, having only lost it by 400 votes in 2007. This part of Labrador also went NDP in the federal election. Lake Melville will be an interesting race because Tory MHA John Hickey is stepping down. This seat is historically Liberal, but Hickey benefited in the 2003 election on a vote split with the Labrador Party helping him win his first race. Finally, up in the Torngat Mountains, Tory MHA Patty Pottle will be in a fight with the Liberals. She won her 2007 race by just 76 votes.

St. John's & the Avalon Peninsula

The Avalon Peninsula is the more Tory friendly part of the province. Interestingly, this is also the area that has gone NDP federally as of late, due to disaffected federal Tories making their switch to the NDP. Perhaps an unlikely choice, but when you've never voted Liberal in generations, why start now?

This part of the province was the best area for Danny Williams, as his Tories racked up massive majorities in most seats. The question is whether or not the NDP can make some inroads here, like they did provincially.

The NDP's lone seat in the province is Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi. The seat has been held by the party since 1990 when former provincial NDP leader (and current MP) Jack Harris won it. The race has been close in recent elections, and current MHA and leader Lorraine Michaels may be in a tough race against the Auditor General of the province, John Noseworthy, who is running for the Tories.

The other St. John's seats were won by overwhelming margins for the Tories in 2007, none lower than 70% of the vote. Only one incumbent is retiring, Sheila Osborne in St. John's West. She got 73% of the vote last time, and it's unlikely the Tories will lose it now.

The Tories won more massive majorities in the St. John's suburbs. Only one seat is open, as Dave Devine is retiring in Mount Pearl South. Considering he won with 84% of the vote in 2007, this one should stay Tory!

The only Liberal seat on the Avalon peninsula is Port de Grave. This seat has been Liberal for all by 7 years since the province joined confederation, and has been Liberal since 1985. MHA Roland Butler will be retiring however, making this seat an interesting one to watch, as he had only won by less than 300 votes in the 2007 election. All other races on the peninsula should be easy Tory wins.

Rural Newfoundland

Outside of the Avalon Peninsula has been traditionally more Liberal in the province. Having said that, the Liberals hold just 2 seats in all of this area, and won only one in the last election. However, if they are to make gains, it will most likely be here.

Some seats the Liberals could pick off  include Bellevue (where Tory Calvin Peach won by 800 votes in 2007), The Isles of Notre Dame (where Tory Derrick Dalley won by just 7 votes), Bay of Islands (where Tory Terry Loder defeated the Liberal MHA Eddie Joyce by 400 votes. They will be in a rematch), and Humber Valley (which will be another rematch of last election where Tory Darryl Kelly defeated the sitting MHA, Dwight Ball by 300 votes). Also, recent by-elections in the area have also shown that the Liberals should be targeting other seats, such as St. Barbe. Former Liberal leader Jim Bennett is running again there in a seat he lost by 900 votes in 2007. The Liberals came within 400 votes of winning a 2008 by-election in Baie Verte-Springdale, and 700 votes from winning Terra Nova  in 2009. Also, we musn't forget the riding Liberal leader Kevin Aylward is running in, St. George's—Stephenville East. He will have an uphill battle, as the Liberals were 50% behind in the 2007 election.  The Liberals had picked up just one seat in a by-election during the last legislative session. Marhsall Dean won the seat for the Grits in 2009. Benefiting from a large 19% swing, he beat the Tory candidate by just 126 votes. The only other Liberal seat in the area is Burgeo-LaPoile. This Liberal stronghold should continue to go Liberal, despite the retiring of its incumbent, Kelvin Parsons. His son, Andrew will be the party's candidate in the riding that has been held by the Tories for just 7 years since 1949.

Meanwhile, the NDP will be setting its sights at Burin-Placentia West. Their candidate is Julie Mitchell, who ran and lost by 1,400 votes in 2007 to Tory Clyde Jackman. With the NDP doing much better in the polls, she is sure to have a shot at the riding. This appears to be the party's third best hope in the province.

The Tories will just have two retiring incumbents in the area. Bonavista North and Bonavista South. The Liberals may have a shot at the north riding, where Harry Harding is retiring. This seat has voted Liberal for most of its history, but the Liberals lost by 1,500 votes in 2007. In the south riding, Rodger Fitzgerald is retiring. He was acclaimed in 2007, meaning it will be hard to guage how well the Liberals will do. It has been a Tory riding since 1993 however, and Fitzgerald won by 3,300 votes in his last contested election of 2003.

[Hatman 🍁]

We missed a poll from PEI as well,

Lib: 59
PC: 31
NDP: 7
Grn: 3

[Hatman 🍁]

Newfoundland projection

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/newfoundland-and-labrador-projection.html

I admit, I was being a tad "Liberal" with my predictions there.

PEI will come up next, whenever I get the chance to do it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Manitoba a snooze? Last poll had a tie!

[Hatman 🍁]

Im not sure how to cover that election in maps. I guess I could do a turnout map or something, or show where incumbents lost.

Anyways, a SK poll has been released, and it's even worse for the NDP:

SP: 63
NDP: 26
Lib: 6
Grn: 3

[Hatman 🍁]

Nomination day in Ontario was yesterday and today's is PEI. Im looking forward to the final list.  Wikipedia only lists 2 NDP candidates in all of PEI, so I'm interested to see how many there will be.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP only nominated 14 out 27
Greens 22 and the new Island Party nominated 12. I dont know anything about them.

The NDP ran 15 candidates in 2007 and 24 when Teddy ran for them in 2003. Last time they ran a full slate was in 2000.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP did the best federally in Charlottetown-Victoria Park, but with the Green leader running there it probably won't be their best seat in the provincial election.

[Hatman 🍁]

PEI projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/prince-edward-island-projection-sept-20.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Tory strength is too high in the St. John's area for the NDP to actually win any seats, I think. Although they will probably win that seat in Burin now- but that's on the strength of the candidate, as the NDP didn't do well there federally.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tory strength is too high in the St. John's area for the NDP to actually win any seats, I think.

We have no way of knowing that. The NDP took 29% in NL federally but in St. John's they took over 50% of the vote while they were in the low teens in the rest of the province. In the absence of any regional breakdown its hard to say - but its not unreasonable that the NDP could be at 40% in SJ and in the high teens elswhere. At 40% or more you are looking at a scenario where SJ splits PC and NDP in terms of seats.

But at this stage its all speculation. Its hard to use the 2007 NL election results as much of a yard stick since in 2007 it was before Williams ABC campaign and it was before the two federal St. John's seats went from being supersafe Tory seats to going NDP by a landslide.

The NDP won those two seats on the strength of their candidacies.  Other than Lorraine Michael, who are the star candidates?  With those numbers though, any decent campaign in the St John's area will result in seats. I wish I knew which one there were. Without that information, we can only assume a uniform swing, and that means no higher than 40% in any seat, and therefore no seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I still wonder how their campaigns are going.

I just made another projection for NL: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/newfoundland-and-labrador-2011-election.html

The NDP is getting closer in St. John's, and may pick up some of those seats you suggested. But I am really when it comes to what to predict. If we could only get some regional numbers.

[Hatman 🍁]

Meanwhile, in Manitoba, something resembling a poll: http://www.cjob.com/News/Local/Story.aspx?ID=1544432

Looks pretty decent for the NDP. We in the pundit community are wondering what's up with Manitoba. Too focused on the Jets I guess.

[Hatman 🍁]

Manitoba poll has come out today showing a massive NDP lead.

Expect a projection to come out from me later in the week.

[Hatman 🍁]

Manitoba poll has come out today showing a massive NDP lead.

Expect a projection to come out from me later in the week.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/breakingnews/manitoba-tories-hold-slight-lead-in-new-environics-opinion-poll-130576928.html

?

There are 2 polls.
This is the one I was referring to: http://www.cjob.com/News/Local/Story.aspx?ID=1545343

[Hatman 🍁]

I've been meaning to ask, so forgive me as an outsider; Why is the NDP government in Manitoba struggling? Is it just because they've been in power for so long, or has something in particular happened in the last year to cause their dip? Purely from an outsider's perspective, they seemed to have governed well.

They aren't unpopular, the race is close, and as I said, they are way ahead in the other poll. It does come down to fact that the party has been in power forever, it seems.  However, the economy is doing well in the province, and things are looking up. The Winnipeg Jets coming back were a big sign of this.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP is running a full slate in NL. I think that's the first time ever for that. The Liberals are also running a full slate.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok, here's my Manitoba prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/manitoba-election-2011-prediction.html

Tory majority still possible, but not likely.

[Hatman 🍁]

Word is the Liberals area still ahead in River Heights, so I'm comfortable with that projection.

[Hatman 🍁]

It keeps getting better. Except, the Tories are up 1!

[Hatman 🍁]

I hope you're right Teddy. I suspect my next projection will start having some too close to call races in St. John's.