2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, that is a good % for the NDP. I have us at 10% there.

My next projection will involve altering Eglinton--Lawrence a bit.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Ontario poll: (Ipsos Reid)

PC: 38 (-4)
Lib: 36 (+5)
NDP: 23 (+1)
Grns: 3 (-2)

All I can say is wow.

[Hatman 🍁]

Updated my projections: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/08/ontario-election-2011-prediction-august.html

The Liberals are now sitting on a minority government projection, winning a lot of close races in the 905 belt.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Saskatchewan poll:

Saskatchewan Party: 58%
New Democratic Party: 31%
Green Party: 5%
Liberal Party: 4%

[Hatman 🍁]

It was the first poll released since November, and yet there has been no significant change, except for the total collapse of the provincial Liberals who were pretty low to begin with.

[Hatman 🍁]

My Saskatchewan projection is up: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/08/saskatchewan-2011-election-prediction.html

SP: 43 (+5)
NDP: 15 (-5)

ETA: Interesting that I came to the same conclusion as the guy from 308.  I wonder what his individual riding numbers will be.

[Hatman 🍁]

I remember the last Yukon election. Every incumbent got re-elected even though like half of them had switched parties.

I don't think polling can be that accurate there. It's nice to see the NDP up, but after finishing 4th in the federal election, I can't get too excited just yet.

Hmm. The Green Party is running. Interesting, with such small districts they could perhaps win a seat or two. I mean, they won a few polls in the federal election, didn't they?

[Hatman 🍁]

The Greens won 4 polls in the Yukon:



(MaxQue's map)

2 of them are in Whitehorse Centre, which is the seat of the NDP leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

Now the only prediction i've seen was 308... which puts the parties at:

Hey now, I have one too!: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/p/prediction-maps.html

Although, I haven't done an analysis yet (but he hasn't either!)

My numbers are:
Tories: 36
Liberals: 3
NDP: 1
Toss up: 8

I think his numbers in NL and PEI are very wonky. The NDP wont win any seats in PEI, and I can't see us doing better than 2 in NL.

I did a sort of poll [recruiting for an online focus group] with the residents of the riding of St. Barbe for work, and I can tell you there are a lot of undecideds there. There is more openness to the NDP than I would have expected, so that's good. I don't think it will translate into seats, unless the party runs some good candidates.

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Ah yes, I remember that. Good to have him on board!

[Hatman 🍁]

His name is Kurtis Coombs, by the way. Google led me to a Conservative who is named Keith Coombs.  Although apparently, Coombs lost the Tory nomination in the Topsail by-election last year.

[Hatman 🍁]

I just looked at the comments on the CBC article about his nomination. Such horrible visceral! The kid must really be hated. This might not be the coup you think it is. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Tory to NDP is a big jump ideologically 

Not in Newfoundland.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tory to NDP is a big jump ideologically 

Not in Newfoundland.

Can you fill me in as to why?
... Sounds like the same is true for the Yukon, but i think thats a different story.

Where are the Tories traditionally strong in Nfld? Avalon peninsula. Where are the two NDP seats in the province? Avalon peninsula. I think that sums it up best. When the federal Tories collapsed in the province, where did their voters go? NDP or, if they are truly right wing (which they're not, it's mostly tradition), they didn't vote at all.

The area is mostly Catholic, and they'd don't vote Liberal in Nfld.

[Hatman 🍁]

It should be noted that NL isn't particularly left wing either, so I think that's where the similarities between the rock and New England end.

What is also interesting is that Fort McMurray isn't particularly Liberal, which is surprising considering how many Newfies live there. Perhaps they don't vote, or vote at home? Most of the Newfies in Fort Mac are likely from the rural Protestant areas.

[Hatman 🍁]

BC might be more left wing than NL, or perhaps Nova Scotia. BC has a lot of right wing areas too, so it's tough to compare (it's a lot like California in that respect).

Newfoundland is definitely culturally conservative though. They may be economically left wing (and why not, considering the unemployment there), and socially left wing in some respects, but the culture there is still conservative, as it is in most of Atlantic Canada.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not much industry left there, I guess.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, I don't get Cape Breton.  Maybe they're socially conservative there. Kinda like Canada's West Virginia.

[Hatman 🍁]

How did John Crosbie come to exist? He doesn't seem to be the sort of person who would get anywhere in Newfoundland.

Seriously? Newfies love their populist grandstanders, no matter their political stripe. The more pro-Newfoundlander a candidate is, the better. It's almost a form of nationalism, if you call it that.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nanos with sh*tty NDP numbers again

(Ontario)

PC: 42%
Lib: 38%
NDP: 16% (!)
Grn: 3%

That's a drop of 7% from other pollsters for the NDP.

Meanwhile in NL, the provincial Liberal party selected a new leader after Yvonne Jones stepped down due to cancer. They selected former MHA Kevin Aylward who will be running in St. George's-Stephenville East.

[Hatman 🍁]

My next projection is going to be depressing. Starting in September, I will have to do poll averages to make things less all over the place.

[Hatman 🍁]

I would positively drool of Rae stumped for Dalton.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another Ontario projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/08/ontario-election-2011-prediction-august_16.html

I have come to conclusion that blogger sucks. It kept removing my conclusion section, so it's not as long as it originally was. It seems it can't handle 2 tables. Maybe I'll have to do something up in paint next time.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like Nanos was off, again.
new Angus-Reid poll:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1047068--provincial-election-to-be-a-tight-3-way-race-poll-suggests?bn=1#.Tl4joc56u3E.facebook

Tories - 38
Liberals - 31
NDP - 24
Green - 6

the election hasn't even started but i haven't seen the Dippers above 24%, could this be the Plateau for the NDP?

Phew. For a moment there, I thought that was a federal poll.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like Nanos was off, again.
new Angus-Reid poll:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1047068--provincial-election-to-be-a-tight-3-way-race-poll-suggests?bn=1#.Tl4joc56u3E.facebook

Tories - 38
Liberals - 31
NDP - 24
Green - 6

the election hasn't even started but i haven't seen the Dippers above 24%, could this be the Plateau for the NDP?

Phew. For a moment there, I thought that was a federal poll.

Sorry didn't mean to scare you there

Also the NDP has its first add up http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnLNpz3dw_I&feature=player_embedded

anyone else see the exact same format as the federal from the campaign launch? its good to see were sticking with the good clean positive campaign.. plus the site FINALLY has candidates listed... i'm a huge fan of the pictures as i'm a visual learner
http://ontariondp.com/en/candidates

Finally. They're not all there though, but it's nice to see a list of some sort.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder what kind of clown they'll find to put up in Orleans.

Still no one. Seems to be the only riding in the city where the NDP is completely dead. No active riding association, no active campaigns, nothing. ever. It's too bad, I know a lot of public servants live in the riding.

I would blame suburbia, but Nepean-Carleton has a competent candidate in Ric Dagenais, and Carleton-MM even had a contested nomination.