2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberal Party of NL is not dead. When the rural outports want change, it's not likely they'll choose the NDP, they'll pick the Liberals.  Newfoundland could very well be a 3 party system in the coming years. But, if the Tories and NDP duke it out in St. John's, that leaves the Liberals in the rest of the province and could yet win again.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why can't the NDP compete in rural NL?

Oh they can, but it's more of a traditional area, much like PEI or most of Cape Breton or New Brunswick. These areas were will be harder to penetrate, but over a generation may be able to win. But, no one will live there in a generation... so..

[Hatman 🍁]

Is there any indication what's going to happen in the Yukon? Looks like a majority of seats are in Whitehorse now. Is the NDP going to take over as the opposition there?

Maybe, I haven't been following it that much. I do recall there was a poll a few weeks ago with the NDP in 2nd.

[Hatman 🍁]

Someone made maps of the leadership election on Wikipedia.

[Hatman 🍁]

I read an article last week about how all three candidates were from the moderate wing of the party. I think if she was from any province where the Liberal Party was competitive, she would not have joined the PC Party, although she's run for (and lost) federal endorsement, so I guess she thinks she could fit within Harper's caucus.

Of the three she was probably the most moderate, although Doug Horner was pretty moderate and even was Gary Mar.  I believe all three were supporters of the PCs, not the Reform/Alliance federally during the 90s.  Mind you many of the Reform/Alliance supporters federally probably are supporters of the Wild Rose Alliance.

Another interesting tidbit is if Manitoba re-elects the NDP and Ontario re-elects the Liberals, we may not have any governments changing this fall (PEI, Newfoundland, and Saskatchewan are likely to be easy wins for the incumbnets).  I wonder if uncertainty causes people to stick with what they know rather than vote for change.

Typically it's the opposite. Strong economies in Newfoundland, Manitoba and SK will result in reelected gov'ts. Ontarios economy means more uncertainty in voting.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final PEI prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/prince-edward-island-2011-election.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Great work on the Alberta leadership maps, Earl!

Those aren't mine!

[Hatman 🍁]

Can the Greens outpoll the NDP in PEI?

They probably will; they did last time.

Tories doing quite well, ahead in 6 ridings so far.

[Hatman 🍁]

For the record, the Tories are up in;

Georgetown-St Peter's
Montague-Kilmuir
Belfast-Murray River
Stratford-Kinlock
Morell-Mermaid
Tracadie-Hillsborough Park
Tignish-Palmer Road

[Hatman 🍁]

I had the Tories at 3 seats. I didn't feel comfortable giving them anymore.

[Hatman 🍁]

I had the Tories at 3 seats. I didn't feel comfortable giving them anymore.

 Lets wait for the final results, but if they are underestimated maybe the same will happen tomorrow and Thursday.  Not necessarily, but just saying.

Well, let's look at the polls. The most recent one had the Liberals at 53% (they're at 52%), which is what the got in 2007. The Tories won three seats in 2007.  

[Hatman 🍁]

PEI's voting patters =/= rural/urban split.

  True in the case of the NDP as what little support they have is mostly in Charlottetown, but both the Liberals and Tories seem to do marginally better in the rural parts.

It's more of a geographical divide. kings County is PC, prince & queens is liberal.

[Hatman 🍁]

simplistic but sort of true.

Generally, east of C-Town and west of S-Side vote PC, while west of C-Town, and east of S-Side votes Liberal, with the two towns deciding things, but of course there can be 3 or so ridings on either side of that divide that switch - the problem is when you have 27 ridings province wide, 3 or so is a huge chunk.

in recent elections, prince county has been very Liberal. Ever since 1996. Of course, things are different federally.
The PCs only lead in one seat there, Tignish-Palmer Road. That also happens to be the old riding of Gail Shea.

[Hatman 🍁]

Souris-Elmira flipped, Tories down to 5 seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm talking about elections not since 1996 but 1896 Historically the Tories have swept western prince.

Ah. politics has changed a lot though since then, even for traditional PEI.

[Hatman 🍁]

The maps are on Wikipedia, and i think you made them, so ... lol.

Anyways, the Tories could still theoretically win just 3 seats, as the other 2 they lead in are still close. Just not the same 3 I predicted.

[Hatman 🍁]

One more poll to go in Souris-Elmira, which is going back and forth.

[Hatman 🍁]

belfast-murray river was one of the seats I said would go Tory, but the liberals hang on to it. but, the Tories have picked up tignish-palmer rd.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like the final results will be 22-5.

[Hatman 🍁]

I expected the Liberals to do much worse in Prince County. While they did lose a seat, their other seats were strong wings.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final Manitoba prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/manitoba-election-2011-final-prediction.html
PEI results: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/prince-edward-island-2011-election_04.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Elections Manitoba = fail website

[Hatman 🍁]

CBC and Elections Manitoba are showing different results.  Tories lead in Emerson.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like I overestimated the PC strength. Damn, maybe 308 will get it closer than me.

[Hatman 🍁]

308's going to get this one right