Analysis of 2008 California municipal results

[Sbane]

Lynwood is actually 86% hispanic and only 10% black. Also Ripon is booming due to exurban growth. Ripon is actually closer to the bay area by road than Stockton is. I don't think a lot of people moved there, but in a small town like that even small movements of people can make it seem like a "boom". And you should probably add Norco to the list of suburbs. Its a weird little place that tries to act rural but in reality it isn't. I stopped there to fill up on gas once and saw people riding down the streets in horses. wtf

[Sbane]

You're right about Lynwood.  I was confusing it with Maywood, which was also on my list anyway.  Norco is perplexing because it's all "we don't use cars, we use horses," which is a very "model suburb" kind of thing to do (a la Peachtree City, Ga. and golf carts) but the incomes are not at all high.

Prop. 8
No
1. Berkeley: 87.39%
2. Fairfax: 86.63%
3. West Hollywood: 86.22%
4. Mill Valley: 85.45%
5. Santa Cruz: 84.53%
6. San Anselmo: 84.26%
7. Albany: 82.65%
8. Arcata: 81.46%
9. Sausalito: 81.21%
10. Point Arena: 81.15%
11. Sebastopol: 80.83%
12. Piedmont: 78.47%
13. Emeryville: 77.52%
14. Santa Monica: 77.44%
15. Corte Madera: 77.37%
16. Davis: 77.16%
17. Larkspur: 77.06%
18. El Cerrito: 76.27%
19. Palo Alto: 75.54%
20. Ross: 75.28%

Beyond the obvious entries, everything here is educated and affluent, with lots of Marin County appearances.  Davis hold UC-Davis.  Santa Monica's appearance is a little bit of a surprise (it isn't that educated, white or rich) but does show how minority voters knock a lot of lefty stalwarts off this list in the L.A. area.

No
1. Maricopa: 81.68%
2. Shafter: 81.37%
3. Kingsburg: 80.82%
4. Wasco: 80.79%
5. Taft: 80.57%
6. Dinuba: 78.68%
7. Vernon: 78.38%
8. McFarland: 78.27%
9. Mendota: 78.08%
10. Dos Palos: 77.96%
11. Exeter: 77.56%
12. Chowchilla: 77.44%
13. Corcoran: 77.04%
14. Tulare: 76.87%
15. Lindsay: 76.81%
16. Reedley: 76.60%
17. Firebaugh: 76.38%
18. Ripon: 76.26%
19. Hughson: 76.06%
20. San Joaquin: 75.97%

This is what happens when you take Hispanic farming towns and the Hispanics vote for the conservative option.  This list is heavily Inland Empire and agricultural.   Bakersfield itself is #25.

Norco has a pretty typical income for the IE.

Also you say the yes list contains IE towns but I don't see any. Are they some obscure ones in the desert? In addition Santa Monica is pretty white by socal standards. And its not filled to the brim by republicans like other white socal cities.

[Sbane]

Bush/No on Prop. 8 (Bush margin, Prop. 8 margin)
Aliso Viejo (Orange) +17.66 -3.09
Amador (Amador) +10.85 -8.47
Atherton (San Mateo) +2.27 -23.06
Clayton (Contra Costa) +5.92 -0.64
Costa Mesa (Orange) +12.64 -0.95
Danville (Contra Costa) +4.80 -9.76
El Segundo (Los Angeles) +8.06 -8.75
Ferndale (Humboldt) +13.53 -0.84
Grass Valley (Nevada) +5.68 -0.42
Hidden Hills (Los Angeles) +5.39 -35.93
Hillsborough (San Mateo) +4.64 -14.48
Irvine (Orange) +5.63 -2.20
Westlake Village (Los Angeles) +6.23 -7.63

All but three are affluent suburbia.  Ferndale is a swing town in Humboldt County, which seems weirdly Republican for its demographics and locale.  I think Grass Valley is an old gold town that's now panning to tourists.  Sort of weird it voted Bush in the first place, really.

Amador City is completely inexplicable, for all I can tell.  It had no apparent business voting no on Prop. 8.

No McCain municipalities failed Prop. 8.  The closest was Rancho Mirage (Prop. 8 +2.04%, McCain +6.91%).

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I should go asleep before I start writing even more incoherently.  Taking requests for tomorrow on any state issues.

Hermosa Beach and Costa Mesa are not that wealthy, particularly the latter, although it has some upper middle class census tracts.

Costa Mesa also has a good proportion of students living there and it contains Orange county community college. I know students here at UC Irvine prefer living in Costa Mesa over north or east Irvine. It is also closer to Newport beach and cheaper than Irvine to boot. Also the hispanic population there seems to be particularly transient/new/illegal. These two things could explain the prop 8 results because on first look they make no sense.

Also Ferndale and those other cities around it(especially Fortuna) used to be huge lumber towns. Not anymore though and I am sure they blame the dems. Southern Humboldt is full of hippies and so is the Eureka/Arcata area, but Ferndale and surroundings contain a good amount of blue collar whites. There is also some agriculture in those areas.

[Sbane]

Bay Area towns dominate this list, either for ethnic diversity, "Bay Area liberalism," or both.  A few other lefty enclaves make the list, including several in affluent Marin County. 

Marin County will be interested in knowing that it isn't part of the bay area.

Haha.  I'm quite aware that Marin County is in the Bay Area (unlike the Central Valley, the Bay Area is a place I know); that's just what happens when you write stuff at 1 AM.  The point was to contrast the liberalism there with, say, Oakland, Union City, Emeryville, Fremont, etc., leading up to the Prop. 8 stuff.  Which was kind of useless since I wrote "Bay Area liberalism" and made that super-vague, but whatever. 

I'm intrigued by what makes Villa Park so Republican.  It's wealthy, but if $81k MHI doesn't go so far in Hermosa Beach, I can't imagine Villa Park's $116k is that flashy.

IIRC Villa Park is just big lots, mostly half an acre. Thus it attracts a certain kind of wealthy individual who is willing to sacrifice the ocean and the good climate that goes with it. It's probably a very "family friendly" place. I went there once and it didn't strike me as being too flashy or overwhelmingly wealthy.

[Sbane]

Milpitas voted yes on 8?? Interesting. Now I really want to see Fremont precinct results map.

[Sbane]

Regarding the Alameda county map, it looks like the affluent and heavily Asian mission district of Fremont voted yes on 8. The Milpitas results make more sense now. Also I think the exit polls understated the support for 8 amongst Asians and Latinos while overstating it amongst blacks. Easily explained by subsample margin of error.

Regarding the prop1a results, it makes a lot of sense that those logging towns in humboldt would vote against something that doesn't benefit them in the least.

[Sbane]

Apple Valley is more of an ungodly post-apocalyptic desert hellscape with big lots. Take a look at the Street View pretty much anywhere in Apple Valley.  Houses built on miles upon miles of dust.  There is no green.

In other words, just like Victorville.

Look at their racial demographics. Apple valley is only 10% black and 25% hispanic with whites making up the rest. Victorville on the other hand is 50% hispanic and 16% black. Also like Alcon said it seems like Apple Valley has more big lots and big houses/mansions. Victorville just seems to be a bunch of 2000 square foot houses with a small yard. The incomes aren't too different though. I have driven through that area a few times but never stopped.

[Sbane]

Those areas are just very liberal overall.  CA-33 has a lot of very socially liberal areas mixed in with moderate minority areas. I am not sure what to make of CA-31. That district definitely has a lot of liberal latinos, or maybe they are just young. I think there are some newly gentrified areas in that district as well. Anyways check out the precinct map of LA county.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/politics/la-2008election-lacountyprecincts,0,5863152.htmlstory

BTW does anyone have a prop 8 precinct map for Santa Clara county?