Santorum criticized Romney the other day for not making the election enough about the economy and Rick actually has a clue on foreign policy. You guys really underestimate the guy but whatever.
Looking into the future, I'm not sure what we'll see, whether we shall reevaluate this tack the party's been taking of late. But to me it seems more likely the defeat will be chalked down to "Moderate Mitt's" lack of consistency and conservative backbone, prompting an even more rightward turn. Combine that with the tradition of the "runner up" being the next Republican candidate, and a Santorum nomination looks frighteningly likely. Against a pragmatic Democrat like Andrew Cuomo or Brian Schweitzer, and I could imagine a 1964-scale defeat.
Now you wonder why I think this may happen. Cuomo's a fairly moderate person, willing to take on teachers' unions, work with the state GOP, and cut spending and taxes, all the while being a solid liberal on social issues. He would be able to put together Hillary's coalition and draw in many more on the left who in 2008 would have gone for Obama. So that gives us Cuomo as the Democratic candidate, perhaps with Hickenlooper or Schweitzer as a running mate.
As I said, the Republican Party has had a tendency to nominate "runners-up", which would primarily be a draw in two ways. First, it would encourage Santorum to run based off of that precedent. Second, it would help shape the media narrative around him as a "natural frontrunner" for that reason, giving him early momentum. Now, I think while there are many other compelling candidates for 2016, I think that Santorum's consistency and steadfastness would make him a very appealing candidate after the failure of "flip-flop Mitt". Bush, Rubio, Christie, Martinez, Daniels- they all come with their baggage that may ruin them, and don't underestimate lurking racism and sexism. So it's very much plausible that Santorum could run and win in 2016. Let's assume he picks Martinez to appeal to women and Hispanics- demographics that he is aware he and his party are struggling with.
So how do we get this map? Well, we have to consider the economic trajectory, which will likely be positive- "slow and steady growth" will be the central theme. While not booming, it's unlikely the GOP will be able to paint a negative picture, at least successfully.
China will continue to be a major issue, and depending on things turn out here and there their GDP may be larger than the United States' by then, by the adjusted PPP metric at least. Lots of soul-searching and outlash may occur, but I don't think politicians will be able to do much about it, so they'll probably trumpet the nominal figure as still being larger and the public will forget about it rapidly.
What we will see with Cuomo is a successful two-term governor who in all probability led his state to both growth and social reform, cutting taxes and spending while balancing budgets. Fiscally, he should have appeal with swing voters that would otherwise go Republican based on those factors. Santorum has no record, being a legislature, but Cuomo may be able to paint Santorum as being fiscally reckless based off of his Senate tenure, and smear him additionally with "evidence" from the fiscal hole that was the Bush years. It's unlikely Santorum will be able to make a case where he appears to be better suited to economic management than Cuomo. This would hurt him greatly in today's swing states, especially in the Midwest.
Socially, Santorum has his liabilities, and Cuomo being the Nixonian figure he is will stop at nothing to paint him as a comically reactionary radical. From abortion, to gay marriage, to women's rights, the consistent narrative will of a man who will take America back to the Middle Ages- and beyond. The nail in the coffin, I imagine, will be in the debates, when both men are questioned on their Catholicism and Santorum repeats his repudiation of JFK's speech on the separation of church and state. That could easily Serve to frighten southern whites into thinking that Santorum intends to inject the Catholic Church into American society, as well.
I don't know what form social media may take in the next four years, but I can confidently assume it will be even more omnipresent and immersive than it is now. With the development of "memes" on Santorum's idiosyncratic beliefs, and the general pressures it places on non-voters we could see youth turnout reach high levels equal to that of 2008 or higher. Of course, with a Santorum-led America being presented as something out of
A Handmaiden's Tale, that demographic would come out particularly strong against him. We'd never hear the end of "weird Santorum", with stories like his being a Knight of Malta or sleeping his the corpse of his stillborn child, fair or not.
Cuomo will likely win by a margin greater than either of Obama's victories. This makes the map I made more than possible. I also think migration will mean GA and SC resemble NC more.
