More likely to win, Barbara Bollier or Carlos Giménez?

[MT Treasurer]

The Peters/Cornyn thread turned out to be quite close, so here’s another one.

Anyway, for me it’s Bollier (still think KS-SEN is a Tossup) and it’s not even close, especially in this environment.

[brucejoel99]

As a South Floridian on the ground down here, can confirm: it's Bollier, & it's not even close.

[Meatball Ron]

As a South Floridian on the ground down here, can confirm: it's Bollier, & it's not even close.

Can you explain why the forecasters (Cook, Sabato) have downgraded DMP's chances from Lean D to toss-up in recent weeks? Did something happen? A bad poll? Better than expected fundraising from her challenger? Just confusing to me but maybe you have some perspectives from the ground - thanks!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

You can thank Gillum and Nelson for the media hyping FL 26 up. They WAY underran Clinton

[brucejoel99]

As a South Floridian on the ground down here, can confirm: it's Bollier, & it's not even close.

Can you explain why the forecasters (Cook, Sabato) have downgraded DMP's chances from Lean D to toss-up in recent weeks? Did something happen? A bad poll? Better than expected fundraising from her challenger? Just confusing to me but maybe you have some perspectives from the ground - thanks!

There was a (seemingly internal) poll in July showing him leading her 47% to 42%, but the pollster - Meeting Street Insights - literally only sprung up in May, so that makes it a little suspect (in addition to the regular skepticism attached to district polls), & she's just been sort-of non-eventful during her tenure thus far, if that makes any sense; like, I can't really think of anything she's really 'done' per se, & so he has the name recognition that she just doesn't, so I guess they see her as vulnerably weak, but downgrading her chances from Lean D to Toss-up is the equivalent of thinking Kennedy was a shoe-in to beat Markey because he was leading him in those early polls from a year ago, with the inherent qualifier to those polls now obviously being that Kennedy was only beating Markey because he was a big-name Kennedy & Markey - even though he's a Senator - was more-or-less an invisible nobody. (And so it is down here in SFL: she - like Markey - has only recently just started finally appearing all over TV, & in doing so, she's making clear that she's progressive in language while knowing how to talk Cuba, Venezuela, & Latin American policy down here, so it's a very well-balanced campaign she's running for the general.)

In any event, since that poll, much of the public in Dade has turned on him for his COVID response & the botched 're-opening' therein (there's recently been much more community spread & resultant hospitalizations than there were at the beginning of the pandemic). And even before the pandemic, his transit plan went nowhere, the teachers unions have come to outright despise him, he has few signature accomplishments to speak of as Mayor, & he's been completely tethering himself to DeSantis/Trump & their messaging even though he literally endorsed Hillary in 2016.

Not to mention, there's the environment of this being a big Dem year, & the fact that FL-26 has been changing a lot over just the past couple cycles. So, yeah: I don't see how Giménez doesn't lose to DMP.

[Vosem]

I'll be a contrary voice: FL-26 was just D+2 in 2018, and there's plenty of evidence Gimenez is a stronger candidate than Curbelo and that this area is trending at least slightly right-wards in 2020. There is no particularly good evidence Bollier can beat Marshall (she has not led in even a single poll). The Republican internal showing R+5 in FL-26 is kind of suspicious, but there's also been no reply to it from the Democrats, and some of your professional prognosticators who have moved FL-26 towards the Republicans have access to private internals.

I think Mucarsel-Powell is still strongly favored, but I'd be much less surprised to see a Gimenez win than a Bollier one.

[SnowLabrador]

Gimenez, and it's not even close.

[Xing]

Bollier, and I’m skeptical of her chances. I wonder if people saying that FL-26 is a Toss-Up also think R-trending seats that went for Trump by double digits but “only” went Republican narrowly in 2018 like KS-02 or MN-01 are also Toss-Ups...

[Meatball Ron]

As a South Floridian on the ground down here, can confirm: it's Bollier, & it's not even close.

Can you explain why the forecasters (Cook, Sabato) have downgraded DMP's chances from Lean D to toss-up in recent weeks? Did something happen? A bad poll? Better than expected fundraising from her challenger? Just confusing to me but maybe you have some perspectives from the ground - thanks!

There was a (seemingly internal) poll in July showing him leading her 47% to 42%, but the pollster - Meeting Street Insights - literally only sprung up in May, so that makes it a little suspect (in addition to the regular skepticism attached to district polls), & she's just been sort-of non-eventful during her tenure thus far, if that makes any sense; like, I can't really think of anything she's really 'done' per se, & so he has the name recognition that she just doesn't, so I guess they see her as vulnerably weak, but downgrading her chances from Lean D to Toss-up is the equivalent of thinking Kennedy was a shoe-in to beat Markey because he was leading him in those early polls from a year ago, with the inherent qualifier to those polls now obviously being that Kennedy was only beating Markey because he was a big-name Kennedy & Markey - even though he's a Senator - was more-or-less an invisible nobody. (And so it is down here in SFL: she - like Markey - has only recently just started finally appearing all over TV, & in doing so, she's making clear that she's progressive in language while knowing how to talk Cuba, Venezuela, & Latin American policy down here, so it's a very well-balanced campaign she's running for the general.)

In any event, since that poll, much of the public in Dade has turned on him for his COVID response & the botched 're-opening' therein (there's recently been much more community spread & resultant hospitalizations than there were at the beginning of the pandemic). And even before the pandemic, his transit plan went nowhere, the teachers unions have come to outright despise him, he has few signature accomplishments to speak of as Mayor, & he's been completely tethering himself to DeSantis/Trump & their messaging even though he literally endorsed Hillary in 2016.

Not to mention, there's the environment of this being a big Dem year, & the fact that FL-26 has been changing a lot over just the past couple cycles. So, yeah: I don't see how Giménez doesn't lose to DMP.

So helpful! Thank you!

[walleye26]

Is Carlos the Mayor or Miami or am I thinking of someone else?

[brucejoel99]

Is Carlos the Mayor or Miami or am I thinking of someone else?

Mayor of Miami-Dade County, the Mayor of the city of Miami is Francis Suarez.

[YE]

Hot take: People are sleeping on both winning.

[VAR]

Bollier lost by double digits, Giménez won.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, of all my screw-ups this year, KS-SEN (I had Bollier losing, but thought it would be relatively close) and Miami-Dade County (didn’t foresee the dramatic swing at the presidential level and thought Ds would hold easily FL-26 and FL-27) were probably the biggest ones.

Feel free to mock this prediction as long as you want.

[Woody]

As a South Floridian on the ground down here, can confirm: it's Bollier, & it's not even close.

You were saying?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

As a South Floridian on the ground down here, can confirm: it's Bollier, & it's not even close.

You were saying?

This "on the ground" analysis that's consistently thrown before a election is largely pointless, unless you've knocked thousands of doors in every corner of the district.. even then you may not get an accurate picture of a race.