Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

What a beautiful map.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1510032399526248457?s=20&t=cyqO6Ee...

[NOVA Green]

Ukraine is denying they were responsible for the helicopter attack.

Well regardless looks like whatever caused the the destruction of a the "Class Two" Combustible Liquid event across the border as a key Russian Military Rear Base Logistics scene, it might well cause future difficulties for Russian attempts to encircle Kharkiv.

Ukrainian Military possibly going on the offense on multiple fronts???

An attack on an oil depot in the Russian city of Belgorod will strain Russia’s ability to get supplies to its already stretched operations in Ukraine, particularly for its forces surrounding the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv a short distance across the border, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said in its latest intelligence update. Russia said the attacks came from Ukrainian helicopters; Ukrainian officials gave conflicting accounts as to whether Ukraine was responsible.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/01/world/ukraine-russia-war

[NOVA Green]

Looks like Ukraine might be getting a few "new tanks" courtesy of "Uncle Joe" working some deals to help out in the Donbas.

The Biden administration will work with allies to transfer Soviet-made tanks to bolster Ukrainian defenses in the country’s eastern Donbas region, a U.S. official said on Friday.

The decision to act as an intermediary to help transfer the Soviet-made tanks, which Ukrainian troops know how to use, comes in response to a request from President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, the official said. It marks the first time in the war that the United States has helped transfer tanks.

The official said the transfers would begin soon, but declined to say how many tanks would be sent, or from which countries they would come. They will allow Ukraine to conduct long-range artillery strikes on Russian targets in Donbas, said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/01/us/politics/us-tanks-ukraine.html

[DINGO Joe]

Regarding India, I was rather surprised to realize how much oil they've been buying from the US lately

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTNTUSIN2&f=M

[Hindsight was 2020]

Heavy raining right now in Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine today. So Russia’s retreat and reorganize an attack into Donbas idea is gonna have to happen right in the middle of Ukraine mud season

[Frodo]

It is like Russian soldiers just discovered that Chernobyl is a radioactive site, and has been since before most of them were even born:

Russian troops ‘flee Chernobyl nuclear plant’ amid radiation exposure claims

Russian troops began leaving the Chernobyl nuclear plant after soldiers got “significant doses” of radiation from digging trenches at the highly contaminated site, Ukraine’s state power company said yesterday as fighting raged on the outskirts of Kyiv and other fronts.

State nuclear power enterprise Energoatom gave no details on the condition of the troops or how many were affected. However, it said the Russians had dug in, in the forest inside the exclusion zone around the now-closed plant, the site in 1986 of the world’s worst nuclear disaster.

The troops “panicked at the first sign of illness,” which “showed up very quickly,” and began preparing to leave, Energoatom said.

There was no immediate comment from the Kremlin, and the International Atomic Energy Agency said it had not been able to confirm reports of troops receiving high doses.

Russian forces seized the Chernobyl site in the opening stages of the February 24 invasion, raising fears that they would cause damage or disruption that could spread radiation. The workforce at the site oversees the safe storage of spent fuel rods and the concrete-entombed ruins of the exploded reactor.

[DINGO Joe]

Given how long ago Chernobyl was and how many of the Russian "grunts" come from rather obscure distant parts of the Empire, it's actually quite plausible that many didn't even know what Chernobyl was upon their entry in the zone.  Whether they've truly been exposed to lethal radiation or whether it's a rank and file psyop freak out, I wouldn't know.

[2952-0-0]

Ukraine is denying they were responsible for the helicopter attack.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1509945260499255308

[Hindsight was 2020]

Once their country was occupied and a puppet regime established, the Ukrainians were then supposed to turn to partisan warfare that would transform the war into a long and bitter quagmire for Russia. Yet again, the Ukrainians didn’t listen. Instead of waiting for their defeat, they say they’re planning to launch a coordinated guerrilla campaign within the next few weeks—parallel to the regular war and just as spring turns forests green to provide cover. “The season of a total Ukrainian guerrilla safari will soon begin,” the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, announced in late March. “Then there will be one relevant scenario left for the Russians: how to survive.”

Ukraine is going on the counter attack with the help of a coordinated insurgency to support behind enemy lines 🤩
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/01/ukraine-russia-war-guerrilla-partisans-civilian-militia/

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Ukraine is denying they were responsible for the helicopter attack.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1509945260499255308

This is them trolling the Russians who used the same excuse in 2014 when they invaded to deny them having deployed troops and claiming all the russian soldiers found in ukraine were just taking holidays there. The Belgrod Peoples Republic after all doesn't exist.

[NOVA Green]

Once their country was occupied and a puppet regime established, the Ukrainians were then supposed to turn to partisan warfare that would transform the war into a long and bitter quagmire for Russia. Yet again, the Ukrainians didn’t listen. Instead of waiting for their defeat, they say they’re planning to launch a coordinated guerrilla campaign within the next few weeks—parallel to the regular war and just as spring turns forests green to provide cover. “The season of a total Ukrainian guerrilla safari will soon begin,” the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, announced in late March. “Then there will be one relevant scenario left for the Russians: how to survive.”

Ukraine is going on the counter attack with the help of a coordinated insurgency to support behind enemy lines 🤩
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/04/01/ukraine-russia-war-guerrilla-partisans-civilian-militia/

Partisan and Guerilla Warfare military actions are par for the course within Ukraine in 2022, and have a deep history generally within the Central European Front going way back to WW II.

Honestly, would not be shocked and overwhelmingly surprised the longer this war drags on to see sabotage missions across the Russian border itself.

Asymmetrical warfare can and frequently will cross over national boundary lines and frequently create massive other items within the "Mother Country" perceived as the aggressor against an aggrieved population.

The Irish Republicans (To use just on small example) were able to successfully use spectacular assaults against perceived targets within the UK which were symbolic representatives of British Colonialism even as late as the final signing of the Good Friday accords.

Really looking like Ukraine might be more like "Russia's Vietnam" than even Afghanistan, considering the current trajectory of the war.

Honestly, wouldn't be surprised to see Ukraine reconquer the overwhelming majority of their landmass currently under Russian Occupation within the next couple weeks.

Key wildcards would naturally be around Donbas and the Sea of Azov Coastal areas.

[NOVA Green]

BBC Story about the Russian 331st Guards Parachute Regiment and casualties among that elite VDV unit.

Really y'all should read the article (no paywall required) as it also talks about some of the Russian reactions as the casualty number stack up, where Facebook is still not yet banned.

Would post more, but suspect I've hit the end of my muzzle.

The men in the 331st regarded themselves as the pick of Russia's army. In a video posted online last May, a general tells soldiers of the 331st Parachute Regiment that they are "the best of the best". The unit served in the Balkans, Chechnya, and the 2014 Russian intervention in the Donbas region of Ukraine, and regularly took part in Red Square parades in Moscow.

The 331st was also a showcase for Russia's policy of replacing national service soldiers with contraktniki - professionals under contract. It is understandable why the generals should have given it an important role in the invasion.

In these close-quarter battles, they have discovered what earlier VDV units learned in Afghanistan - that armoured vehicles designed to be light enough to be carried on planes do not give much protection from enemy fire. From the roads outside Hostomel airfield, to a side street in Bucha, or a road junction in Irpin, videos taken by Ukrainians have shown burnt out and abandoned vehicles belonging to the airborne group.

During the 2014 fighting in the Donbas, the 331st was held responsible by Ukrainians for killing hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers at Ilovaisk, in breach of a ceasefire agreement.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60946340

[CumbrianLefty]

How are Russia going to keep the scale of their reverse around Kyiv from their own people?

[President Johnson]

How are Russia going to keep the scale of their reverse around Kyiv from their own people?

Through a massive propaganda apparatus. Remember most Russians are just told this is just a "special operation" to support the "Donbas republics" and their fights against "nazism".

[CumbrianLefty]

How are Russia going to keep the scale of their reverse around Kyiv from their own people?

Through a massive propaganda apparatus. Remember most Russians are just told this is just a "special operation" to support the "Donbas republics" and their fights against "nazism".

Well of course, but I really meant how are they going to do it *convincingly*?

[Yoda]

I’m confused about the oil tanks thing. It’s pretty clearly a legitimate military target and I guess the Russian position is that Ukraine isn’t allowed to shoot back.

Does Russia not understand the concept of a war?

Literally no, they do not. Their negotiator made that quite clear when he said it (the attack) didn't help progress or some sh**t. Leveling Mariupol, a city of 500K to the ground does? Raping teenage girls does? Bombing women and babies in a theater does? Russia, and not just Putin, believes they are entitled to peace and prosperity while committing heinous acts of literal terrorism abroad.

[Person Man]

I’m confused about the oil tanks thing. It’s pretty clearly a legitimate military target and I guess the Russian position is that Ukraine isn’t allowed to shoot back.

Does Russia not understand the concept of a war?

Literally no, they do not. Their negotiator made that quite clear when he said it (the attack) didn't help progress or some sh**t. Leveling Mariupol, a city of 500K to the ground does? Raping teenage girls does? Bombing women and babies in a theater does? Russia, and not just Putin, believes they are entitled to peace and prosperity while committing heinous acts of literal terrorism abroad.

Countries that can’t shouldn’t exist and there are millions of non-Russians in Russia who want one.

[CumbrianLefty]

I’m confused about the oil tanks thing. It’s pretty clearly a legitimate military target and I guess the Russian position is that Ukraine isn’t allowed to shoot back.

Does Russia not understand the concept of a war?

Literally no, they do not. Their negotiator made that quite clear when he said it (the attack) didn't help progress or some sh**t. Leveling Mariupol, a city of 500K to the ground does? Raping teenage girls does? Bombing women and babies in a theater does? Russia, and not just Putin, believes they are entitled to peace and prosperity while committing heinous acts of literal terrorism abroad.

They also use WW2 as a shroud to justify getting whatever they want, no questions asked. At least in this respect, Russia is arguably an even more extreme version of the UK.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I’m confused about the oil tanks thing. It’s pretty clearly a legitimate military target and I guess the Russian position is that Ukraine isn’t allowed to shoot back.

Does Russia not understand the concept of a war?

Literally no, they do not. Their negotiator made that quite clear when he said it (the attack) didn't help progress or some sh**t. Leveling Mariupol, a city of 500K to the ground does? Raping teenage girls does? Bombing women and babies in a theater does? Russia, and not just Putin, believes they are entitled to peace and prosperity while committing heinous acts of literal terrorism abroad.

They also use WW2 as a shroud to justify getting whatever they want, no questions asked. At least in this respect, Russia is arguably an even more extreme version of the UK.

I don’t think it’s arguable. In fact the UK is FAR from the worst offender when it comes to this.

[rc18]

Britain will be sending anti aircraft missiles.

https://twitter.com/bealejonathan/status/1504108160931426305?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

Though a quick google search says it's a short range missile.

These are one of the world's most advanced man-portable anti aircraft missles. Longer range than Stingers, over mach 3 missile velocity, and can't be jammed. If you have one of these on your tail you are almost guaranteed to have a bad day.

Starstreak got its first confirmed kill. The Havoc it downed is one of Russia's most modern attack helicopters. Perhaps more interesting is this was in Luhansk, so supplies are getting to the front fast.

https://twitter.com/SkyScottBeasley/status/1510199369957584900?s=20&t=yPlKui...

[GeorgiaModerate]

BBC Story about the Russian 331st Guards Parachute Regiment and casualties among that elite VDV unit.

Really y'all should read the article (no paywall required) as it also talks about some of the Russian reactions as the casualty number stack up, where Facebook is still not yet banned.

Would post more, but suspect I've hit the end of my muzzle.

The men in the 331st regarded themselves as the pick of Russia's army. In a video posted online last May, a general tells soldiers of the 331st Parachute Regiment that they are "the best of the best". The unit served in the Balkans, Chechnya, and the 2014 Russian intervention in the Donbas region of Ukraine, and regularly took part in Red Square parades in Moscow.

The 331st was also a showcase for Russia's policy of replacing national service soldiers with contraktniki - professionals under contract. It is understandable why the generals should have given it an important role in the invasion.

In these close-quarter battles, they have discovered what earlier VDV units learned in Afghanistan - that armoured vehicles designed to be light enough to be carried on planes do not give much protection from enemy fire. From the roads outside Hostomel airfield, to a side street in Bucha, or a road junction in Irpin, videos taken by Ukrainians have shown burnt out and abandoned vehicles belonging to the airborne group.

During the 2014 fighting in the Donbas, the 331st was held responsible by Ukrainians for killing hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers at Ilovaisk, in breach of a ceasefire agreement.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60946340

Good article, thanks for posting it.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/lapatina_/status/1510210221444055043
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1510223260356648967
https://twitter.com/NikaMelkozerova/status/1510205199335444482
https://twitter.com/OleksandraZubal/status/1510263865531060234

[CumbrianLefty]

Well that will get the Belarussian people right behind them

[Torie]

The klepto plot line is one that I had not thought of before. Maybe that was a factor in combat ineffectiveness. You can't fight and loot at the same time.

[Storr]

Ukraine is denying they were responsible for the helicopter attack.

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1509945260499255308

This is them trolling the Russians who used the same excuse in 2014 when they invaded to deny them having deployed troops and claiming all the russian soldiers found in ukraine were just taking holidays there. The Belgrod Peoples Republic after all doesn't exist.

Dear Russian Federation,

We're sorry to hear unidentified helicopters of unknown origin accidentally flew into Russia and unintentionally launched rockets that blew up an important oil storage depot. It's crazy how stuff like that happens.

Best regards,
Ukraine