2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[politicallefty]

I can’t remember the answer, but do Republicans have veto override numbers on JBE? If not, I bet he could hold off for a competitive 2nd Dem district.

The Louisiana Senate has a Republican supermajority, but the House does not (it's currently 68R-33D-3I). It all depends on what the independents do. Assuming a strict party-line vote, Democrats need two of the three independents.

[politicallefty]

Is this going back to the same appeals court panel that heard it (Smith, Higginson, and Willett)? If so, it could be so much worse. An en banc decision could be a problem, but SCOTUS did imply it wanted a plan in place for the 2024 election.

[politicallefty]

Those are pretty rough panels, especially the one hearing the mandamus action. Edith Jones and James Ho on the same panel? Yikes. On the other panel, Elrod is an ideologue. I don't know that much about Southwick except that he's quite conservative. I'm not expecting anything good from either panel. Hopefully, the groups suing Louisiana skip an en banc request and go straight to SCOTUS.

[politicallefty]

Those are pretty rough panels, especially the one hearing the mandamus action. Edith Jones and James Ho on the same panel? Yikes. On the other panel, Elrod is an ideologue. I don't know that much about Southwick except that he's quite conservative. I'm not expecting anything good from either panel. Hopefully, the groups suing Louisiana skip an en banc request and go straight to SCOTUS.

Yep, the hearing next week is delayed until the 5th has had it's say. Which is still happening in 10 days, and with Louisianas extremely late deadlines, since the 'primary ' is on election day,  the remedial path remains there. Especially since if it gets back to the Supreme court,  we just saw what they think about attempting to sidestep their judgement.

https://twitter.com/RMFifthCircuit/status/1707446899324620840?t=gWWzPIUcB1QbJgBE...

Law has no meaning at the 5th Circuit. As expected, they're going straight to SCOTUS:

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1707895563813793958

[politicallefty]

[tweet][tweet]

Wait, so basically district court schedules hearing -> circuit court cancels hearing -> supreme court declines to cancel cancellation -> presumably district court schedules another hearing? What's to prevent this from repeating ad infinitum until Purcell becomes relevant?

Does this make a redraw more or less likely?

I don't think it makes any difference one way or the other overall. As for whether or not it can be done before the election next year, anything that draws out the process reduces that likelihood. Those arguing for a redraw do seem to have one major advantage in a state like Louisiana versus any other. That is its unique jungle primary. Louisiana has one of the latest filing deadlines in the country due to the fact that the November general election is functionally a primary for any race where no one gets >50%. That should allow for more time before the Purcell principle becomes an issue.

[politicallefty]

I'd be surprised if any map gets through the courts that isn't the L-shape VRA district mentioned many times before (and on the previous page).

[politicallefty]

I think this Congressional map is designed to get SCOTUS to strike it down. A similar district was struck down in the 90s (and I'm not referring to the infamous "Z" district).

[politicallefty]

I think this Congressional map is designed to get SCOTUS to strike it down. A similar district was struck down in the 90s (and I'm not referring to the infamous "Z" district).

Strike it down and order a more compact black majority district to be drawn?

It can be done quite easily.

As to Oryx's post (and I do apologize for having a short response to a long and well-thought-out post), it will ultimately come down to what Justice Kavanaugh thinks. As far as the reason to draw out the process, that's what parties will do when their back is to the wall. If they can delay a second VRA district until 2026 (or later), Republicans will take that option without hesitation.

[politicallefty]

That doesn't preclude another challenge from a different party. However, anything of the sort would almost certainly need to start from scratch. It appears extremely likely that this new map will be in place for the election this year.