GriffGraph: Balance of Power Comparisons (Emergency TPP Update)

[Adam Griffin]

Due to the massive shifts over the past week, I am releasing the fourth set of Balance of Power rankings early to give everyone an idea of the status of each region. I *believe* the displayed seats are correct this time, however, let me know if anything is amiss. You can view the last GriffGraph Balance of Power Comparisons here.

The first set of images show plurality/majority party affiliation by region:





The second set of images compare an aggregate of voter registration, executive, legislative and judicial control to effectively determine which parties have the most power:

Here is how the national numbers stand up:

Finally, an image depicting the swing in each region – based on the Balance of Power maps above:

[Adam Griffin]

Wonderful as usual, Griffin. One teeny nit-pick, though: the NE Assembly now has three Labor members, I was appointed yesterday to the seat vacated by BelgianSocialist.

But really, these are fantastic!

Congrats! I've fixed the map; it provided Labor with a little bit of a bump in the national count (0.3-0.4 points) at the expense of 'Other'.

[Adam Griffin]

What are the numbers if you weight it differently? Regions have way too much weight, should be less than 40%. Senate is usually a decent gauge of party strength so deserves to be weighted much, much higher.

Liberals would be the plurality party where the weight is 40% Federal or higher. I admit this aspect of the GriffGraph does need to be tweaked and thankfully it does not impact any of the other graphics or calculations; I do not see future revisions, however, containing a formula that would hand 70%+ of the weight to the Federal slate. Here are the results with different weights:

70% Federal/30% Regional:

Liberal: 39.48%
Labor: 31.61%
TPP: 7.67%
IB: 6.60%
Whig: 6.51%
Other: 3.62%
Ind: 2.85%

60% Federal/40% Regional:

Liberal: 35.97%
Labor: 30.48%
TPP: 8.56%
IB: 7.14%
Whig: 7.02%
Other: 4.83%
Ind: 3.80%

50% Federal/50% Regional:

Liberal: 32.46%
Labor: 29.35%
TPP: 9.45%
IB: 7.67%
Whig: 7.52%
Other: 6.04%
Ind: 4.75%

40% Federal/60% Regional:

Liberal: 28.95%
Labor: 28.28%
TPP: 10.33%
IB: 8.20%
Whig: 8.02%
Other: 7.24%
Ind: 5.70%