The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Seriously?]

Confirmed!

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Nevada is gone for Romney. The question is whether or not it's gone for Heller.

I suspect you're ultimately right in the end, however, it's closer than you think. Modeling directly from the SUSA poll, assuming an R+3 with the crossover vote and an R+7 with Independents, Obama is ahead by somewhere between 8,000-13,000 votes statewide through Thursday.

Romney would have to take election day by two points (R+2) to overcome that edge. Doable, but increasingly unlikely under SUSA's analysis of R+1 on Election Day.

My guess is that it will move up to R+3 when the last Clark numbers cross into the SoS database after I plug them into my spreadsheet tomorrow morning. Also keep in mind that absentees can still flow in, which favor R+5 on average, but those will probably be deminimus along the fringes as to the final needed number for Romney.

Note: that's all back of the envelope math right now and not modeled to reflect the third party vote. Once Early Voting is in the books, I'll refine it a bit, add the third parties and also add some modeling for undecideds.

[Ljube]

Arizona doesn't publish early vote numbers at all, as far as I can tell. Texas does, but there's no party registration in Texas, so all they publish are the county by county vote totals.

Wow, Republicans won Washoe today by five votes. Super close!

Remember the old rule: As goes Washoe, so goes Nevada.

[Brittain33]

Cuyahoga county was down another 800 votes today vs 08 or 11% down vs same day 08.

Down 16% overall vs 08 at same time.


http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

Yeah, that's what happens when you take away early voting during the weekend for nakedly partisan reasons. It's a disgrace.

What does weekend early voting have to do with depressed turnout during the week? If Obama's voters were motivated, they'd be voting MORE not LESS in Obamaphone country during the week to compensate.

They have jobs.

[Brittain33]

Confirmed!

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Nevada is gone for Romney. The question is whether or not it's gone for Heller.

Holy crap. Maybe Berkley could have a miracle after all.

[Seriously?]

Cuyahoga county was down another 800 votes today vs 08 or 11% down vs same day 08.

Down 16% overall vs 08 at same time.


http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/pdf_boe/en-US/2012/2008_2012InHouseVotingDailyComparison.pdf

Yeah, that's what happens when you take away early voting during the weekend for nakedly partisan reasons. It's a disgrace.

What does weekend early voting have to do with depressed turnout during the week? If Obama's voters were motivated, they'd be voting MORE not LESS in Obamaphone country during the week to compensate.

They have jobs.

I don't care how many jobs you have. Requesting an absentee is easy. Two weeks or whatever the period was in Ohio (15 days?) is more than enough time to vote early. I have no sympathy for either candidate if they can't get out the vote in this time frame.

[J. J.]

Considering that I live in a state without early voting, I really do not see how this is suppression, especially since every voter was sent an absentee ballot application. 

[Brittain33]

Considering that I live in a state without early voting, I really do not see how this is suppression, especially since every voter was sent an absentee ballot application. 

Early voting was instituted because under the Republican SOS, voting lines in 2004 were so long (several hours) that they disenfranchised people who because of work and family requirements could not devote that time. Democratic voters are more likely to be in hourly jobs and lack the flexibility and transportation tools that give affluent retirees and professionals more leeway in when they vote.

Republicans cut down the early vote window in 2012 because they didn't like how well it enabled Democratic voters to exercise their right without a substantial penalty in waiting time in 2008.

The right to vote should be what's important here, and enabling people to exercise it. Not whether you are "ok" with a certain extra degree of inconvenience on voters with family and work commitments.

[J. J.]

Considering that I live in a state without early voting, I really do not see how this is suppression, especially since every voter was sent an absentee ballot application. 

Early voting was instituted because under the Republican SOS, voting lines in 2004 were so long (several hours) that they disenfranchised people who because of work and family requirements could not devote that time. Democratic voters are more likely to be in hourly jobs and lack the flexibility and transportation tools that give affluent retirees and professionals more leeway in when they vote.

Well, they can send in the application by mail; they don't have to wait at all.  It is not like there is no a viable alternative.

[J. J.]

NC, R's have a net gain of 50,000 registered voters (including same day voters) over 2008. 

[Seriously?]

Considering that I live in a state without early voting, I really do not see how this is suppression, especially since every voter was sent an absentee ballot application. 

That's because it's NOT suppression. Early voting is an expanse of the right to vote by the individual states. The states have the right to set the places and manner of the election, so long as the regular vote is scheduled for the first Tuesday in November.

[J. J.]

This was mentioned before:

In NC the % of the electorate in 2008 that was black was 21.6.

In 2012, it was 22.4.

While there has been an increase in the black share of the electorate, and black people represent a slighter % of the electorate, it at a lower rate.

2008 (same point in time):  26.7

2012:  27.1

Democratic turnout bumped a bit yesterday:

Dem    47.6%
Rep    31.8%
None/Oth    20.6%

That gap has shrunk by 5.8 points, from 21.2 to 15.8 points. 

[J. J.]

Iowa yesterday: 

Dem    43.0%
Rep    32.2%
None/Oth    24.8%

Iowa Today:

Dem    42.6%
Rep    32.3%
None/Oth    25.2%
   
The final gap in 2008 was 18.0.   

[Brittain33]

This was mentioned before:

In NC the % of the electorate in 2008 that was black was 21.6.

In 2012, it was 22.4.

While there has been an increase in the black share of the electorate, and black people represent a slighter % of the electorate, it at a lower rate.

2008 (same point in time):  26.7

2012:  27.1

What conclusion might you draw from that, taken along with your observation that Republican early turnout is significantly higher than in 2008? Recall that Obama stressed early voting in both elections, while Republicans only stressed it this election.

[Dan the Roman]

Iowa yesterday: 

Dem    43.0%
Rep    32.2%
None/Oth    24.8%

Iowa Today:

Dem    42.6%
Rep    32.3%
None/Oth    25.2%
   
The final gap in 2008 was 18.0.   

Absolute Gap just passed 63K. Also we are probably looking at 43% or so cast early rather than 36%. Is their weekend voting this weekend?

[Skill and Chance]

Considering that I live in a state without early voting, I really do not see how this is suppression, especially since every voter was sent an absentee ballot application. 

That's because it's NOT suppression. Early voting is an expanse of the right to vote by the individual states. The states have the right to set the places and manner of the election, so long as the regular vote is scheduled for the first Tuesday in November.

To really ensure fairness, the rules would all need to be set federally.  See Canada, where they use a uniform bilingual ballot format across all of the provinces for federal offices.  Voting procedure, ideally, should be standardized across the states in federal elections.  For governor and state legislature, they can do as they please.

[Dan the Roman]

Iowa yesterday: 

Dem    43.0%
Rep    32.2%
None/Oth    24.8%

Iowa Today:

Dem    42.6%
Rep    32.3%
None/Oth    25.2%
   
The final gap in 2008 was 18.0.   

Absolute Gap just passed 63K. Also we are probably looking at 43% or so cast early rather than 36%. Is their weekend voting this weekend?

Apparently a number of counties are doing in-person today as the only weekend day of the whole period.

[Skill and Chance]

This was mentioned before:

In NC the % of the electorate in 2008 that was black was 21.6.

In 2012, it was 22.4.

While there has been an increase in the black share of the electorate, and black people represent a slighter % of the electorate, it at a lower rate.

2008 (same point in time):  26.7

2012:  27.1

What conclusion might you draw from that, taken along with your observation that Republican early turnout is significantly higher than in 2008? Recall that Obama stressed early voting in both elections, while Republicans only stressed it this election.

Yep, those 2008 election day McCain voters are really getting out the early vote this year.

[J. J.]

This was mentioned before:

In NC the % of the electorate in 2008 that was black was 21.6.

In 2012, it was 22.4.

While there has been an increase in the black share of the electorate, and black people represent a slighter % of the electorate, it at a lower rate.

2008 (same point in time):  26.7

2012:  27.1

What conclusion might you draw from that, taken along with your observation that Republican early turnout is significantly higher than in 2008? Recall that Obama stressed early voting in both elections, while Republicans only stressed it this election.

Well, a few people pointed to the proportional increase in black voters and it will account for a slight increase in the black proportion of the electorate.  It will not be proportional to the number of registered black voters. 

Basically, there are more black voters in 2012 in NC, but the proportion of those that turn out will decline.

Hypothetically, assume that there is a constituency A.  In 2008, these were the numbers:

10,000 black voters:

75% turn out

7500 black voters turn out

In 2012:

12,000 black voters

73% turn out

8760 black voters turn out. 

Those are just hypothetical numbers, but I wanted to note that, in such cases, it wouldn't be 9,000. 

[krazen1211]

This was mentioned before:

In NC the % of the electorate in 2008 that was black was 21.6.

In 2012, it was 22.4.

While there has been an increase in the black share of the electorate, and black people represent a slighter % of the electorate, it at a lower rate.

2008 (same point in time):  26.7

2012:  27.1

North Carolina

2008:
Age
18-29      14.9%   
30-44      23.5%   


2012:
Age   
18-29   12.2%
30-44   20.9%





The white Democrats who have dropped out of the pool are in the <45 agegroup. For instance, 25 year olds cast over 30,000 votes in 2008 and 22,000 votes thus far in 2012. Youth turnout is at 2004ish levels, at least here.

[Dan the Roman]

This was mentioned before:

In NC the % of the electorate in 2008 that was black was 21.6.

In 2012, it was 22.4.

While there has been an increase in the black share of the electorate, and black people represent a slighter % of the electorate, it at a lower rate.

2008 (same point in time):  26.7

2012:  27.1

What conclusion might you draw from that, taken along with your observation that Republican early turnout is significantly higher than in 2008? Recall that Obama stressed early voting in both elections, while Republicans only stressed it this election.

Well, a few people pointed to the proportional increase in black voters and it will account for a slight increase in the black proportion of the electorate.  It will not be proportional to the number of registered black voters. 

Basically, there are more black voters in 2012 in NC, but the proportion of those that turn out will decline.

Hypothetically, assume that there is a constituency A.  In 2008, these were the numbers:

10,000 black voters:

75% turn out

7500 black voters turn out

In 2012:

12,000 black voters

73% turn out

8760 black voters turn out. 

Those are just hypothetical numbers, but I wanted to note that, in such cases, it wouldn't be 9,000. 

Interesting, but unlikely to be true in reality.

Currently, with one day of Early voting left, and with over 50% of the vote in

46% of Registered African Americans
36% of Registered Whites
30% Others

Have voted. African American turnout % should be pretty close to the white one if not exceeding it.

[Dan the Roman]

This was mentioned before:

In NC the % of the electorate in 2008 that was black was 21.6.

In 2012, it was 22.4.

While there has been an increase in the black share of the electorate, and black people represent a slighter % of the electorate, it at a lower rate.

2008 (same point in time):  26.7

2012:  27.1

North Carolina

2008:
Age
18-29      14.9%   
30-44      23.5%   


2012:
Age   
18-29   12.2%
30-44   20.9%





The white Democrats who have dropped out of the pool are in the <45 agegroup. For instance, 25 year olds cast over 30,000 votes in 2008 and 22,000 votes thus far in 2012. Youth turnout is at 2004ish levels, at least here.

Also true

[Ljube]

Nevada early voting results - updated 11/03/2012

Votes cast: 701845 - 56%
D: 307877
R: 259913
I: 134055

Advantage D+47964

Early voting ended yesterday.

[J. J.]

Nevada early voting results - updated 11/03/2012

Votes cast: 701845 - 56%
D: 307877
R: 259913
I: 134055

Advantage D+47964

Early voting ended yesterday.

Less than 50 K, but I'd still give the advantage to Obama. 

[Ljube]

Nevada early voting results - updated 11/03/2012

Votes cast: 701845 - 56%
D: 307877
R: 259913
I: 134055

Advantage D+47964

Early voting ended yesterday.

Less than 50 K, but I'd still give the advantage to Obama. 

What's your final prediction? Mine is Obama +4.

[CatoMinor]

Nevada early voting results - updated 11/03/2012

Votes cast: 701845 - 56%
D: 307877
R: 259913
I: 134055

Advantage D+47964

Early voting ended yesterday.

Non Obamney options are getting 19% in NV???