The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[Drew1830]

Democrats almost at +60,000 in Iowa. Very nice.

Ah, in 2008, it was +86,000. 

Do you want a gold star sticker? What's your point?

Do people like J.J. not understand that Obama won in a landslide last time? Simply being in the same neighborhood as his 2008 numbers is sufficient for him.

+60,000 in Iowa right now = winning

[Minnesota Mike]

Do people like J.J. not understand that Obama won in a landslide last time? Simply being in the same neighborhood as his 2008 numbers is sufficient for him.

+60,000 in Iowa right now = winning

Welcome and I agree.

[krazen1211]

Do people like J.J. not understand that Obama won in a landslide last time? Simply being in the same neighborhood as his 2008 numbers is sufficient for him.

+60,000 in Iowa right now = winning

Welcome and I agree.

Unfortunately for you the GOP will be surging 70-80k on election day just like 2004.

[J. J.]

Democrats almost at +60,000 in Iowa. Very nice.

Ah, in 2008, it was +86,000. 

Do you want a gold star sticker? What's your point?

Do people like J.J. not understand that Obama won in a landslide last time? Simply being in the same neighborhood as his 2008 numbers is sufficient for him.

+60,000 in Iowa right now = winning

One thing that you assume is that Election Day will look like it did in 2008.  These shifts are evidence that it will not. 

[Minnesota Mike]

Do people like J.J. not understand that Obama won in a landslide last time? Simply being in the same neighborhood as his 2008 numbers is sufficient for him.

+60,000 in Iowa right now = winning

Welcome and I agree.

Unfortunately for you the GOP will be surging 70-80k on election day just like 2004.

But in 2004 there were fewer early voters. Tougher to get 70-80K out of a smaller pool of voters that will be left on election day.

[J. J.]

Do people like J.J. not understand that Obama won in a landslide last time? Simply being in the same neighborhood as his 2008 numbers is sufficient for him.

+60,000 in Iowa right now = winning

Welcome and I agree.

Unfortunately for you the GOP will be surging 70-80k on election day just like 2004.

But in 2004 there were fewer early voters. Tougher to get 70-80K out of a smaller pool of voters that will be left on election day.

Has the registration changed? 

[Drew1830]

Democrats almost at +60,000 in Iowa. Very nice.

Ah, in 2008, it was +86,000. 

Do you want a gold star sticker? What's your point?

Do people like J.J. not understand that Obama won in a landslide last time? Simply being in the same neighborhood as his 2008 numbers is sufficient for him.

+60,000 in Iowa right now = winning

One thing that you assume is that Election Day will look like it did in 2008. 

No I'm not. What I'm saying is that it doesn't even have to be THAT close to 2008 for Obama to win.

Iowa is the ultimate bellwether. Obama being +60,000 is him winning.

[krazen1211]

Has the registration changed? 

The GOP had a 5k advantage in 2004 and an 11k advantage today. Both parties are within 10k of their November 2004 totals. More Democrats now means less later. In 2004 Iowa Republicans cast 20k more votes than Iowa Democrats.

[krazen1211]

Do people like J.J. not understand that Obama won in a landslide last time? Simply being in the same neighborhood as his 2008 numbers is sufficient for him.

+60,000 in Iowa right now = winning

Welcome and I agree.

Unfortunately for you the GOP will be surging 70-80k on election day just like 2004.

But in 2004 there were fewer early voters. Tougher to get 70-80K out of a smaller pool of voters that will be left on election day.

Iowa Republicans have averaged 81% turnout in the last 3 Presidential elections while Iowa Democrats averaged 79%. Your statement is only true if Iowa Republicans decide not to vote.

[Iosif]

Mr krazen, how do you like your chances next week? Which states do you think your man will win, which states do you think he'll lose?

Hand on heart.

[Lief 🗽]

Dems now lead by 50k in Clark. Washoe is still a tie basically.

[Cliffy]

VA

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.vpap.org/updates/show/1094

[Dan the Roman]

VA

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.vpap.org/updates/show/1094

I hope there is some sort of explanation.

[Lief 🗽]

lol what?

Don't you need an excuse to vote early in Virginia anyway? I don't think we can make any conclusions about turnout or enthusiasm if it's not no-excuse early voting.

[Adam Griffin]

VA

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.vpap.org/updates/show/1094

I hope there is some sort of explanation.

Actually, I can't find one. Last time around, you could only vote absentee via mail in Virginia. This year though, they instituted early in-person voting as well. About 506,000 people voted in total during the 2008 early voting period in Virginia - all via mail; right now, it's 254,000, but there have only been 85,000 returned ballots via mail. I see the 18-25 demographic lost its dominance among early voters (was around 22% last week, now it's 13%).

[Ljube]

Clark County Day 11

D: 13014
R: 10097
I: 6029

Total: 29140

[philly09]

VA

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.vpap.org/updates/show/1094

I hope there is some sort of explanation.

Actually, I can't find one. Last time around, you could only vote absentee via mail in Virginia. This year though, they instituted early in-person voting as well. About 506,000 people voted in total during the 2008 early voting period in Virginia - all via mail; right now, it's 254,000, but there have only been 85,000 returned ballots via mail. I see the 18-25 demographic lost its dominance among early voters (was around 22% last week, now it's 13%).

Wouldn't Sandy have an impact on early voting in VA?

[krazen1211]

Oct 30, 2012:
D: 914697 (48.8%)
R: 592712 (31.6%)
I: 368034 (19.6%)

W: 1259425 (67.0%)
B: 529584 (28.2%)
O: 90111 (4.8%)

Average age: 54



Oct 28, 2008:

D: 899781 (53.9%)
R: 477071 (28.6%)
I: 290260 (17.4%)

W: 1137954 (68.2%)
B: 463564 (27.8%)
O: 66526 (3.9%)

Average age: 52





These next few days are when the early vote for the under 40 crowd surged in 2008.


Pollsters of course claim that obama is winning the EV in 2012 by identical margins to 2008. Bull!

[J. J.]

NC R's came out in this week for McCain in 2008.  If the patten holds, it will obviously R's gains. 

[Brittain33]

Obama soars among early voters in Iowa, 64/35.

Excellent news!

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-5-in-wisconsin-and-iowa.html

[krazen1211]

Obama soars among early voters in Iowa, 64/35.

Excellent news!

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-5-in-wisconsin-and-iowa.html

Hahaha! A poll can claim such, but the EV sample is over 32% Republican registered voters.

[Ljube]

Iowa polls are meaningless now.

[Brittain33]

Obama soars among early voters in Iowa, 64/35.

Excellent news!

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-5-in-wisconsin-and-iowa.html

Hahaha! A poll can claim such, but the EV sample is over 32% Republican registered voters.

Sounds like Obama is soaring among Indies!

[Ljube]

Obama soars among early voters in Iowa, 64/35.

Excellent news!

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-5-in-wisconsin-and-iowa.html

Hahaha! A poll can claim such, but the EV sample is over 32% Republican registered voters.

Sounds like Obama is soaring among Indies!

We know Iowa “Indies” are pro Obama. That’s why I called Iowa for Obama already.

[opebo]

Iowa polls are meaningless now.

Why, did the hurricane hit Iowa?