The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[krazen1211]

http://vote.franklincountyohio.gov/absentee/absentee-district-counts.cfm




The 3rd congressional district composes of 62% of Franklin County's population but is greatly lagging in absentee ballot requests at only 54%.

[J. J.]

The Washington Post says things look good for Dems so far:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/15/why-the-early-vote-looks-good-for-democrats/

They are using old numbers.  IA applications now have a greater percentage of R's than 2008 while D's have about the same.  It is about a 2 point gain.

NC is running about 2 points higher as well.

[krazen1211]

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20121016/NEWS09/310160032/1007/news05

Republican voters’ requests for ballots have eclipsed the Democrats for 10 straight days, significantly shrinking President Barack Obama’s advantage, state records show.

Iowa Democrats led in absentee ballots in 2010, but lost heavily in the general election. Currently, among active voters in Iowa, the GOP has a registration advantage of 11,000.

[J. J.]

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20121016/NEWS09/310160032/1007/news05

Republican voters’ requests for ballots have eclipsed the Democrats for 10 straight days, significantly shrinking President Barack Obama’s advantage, state records show.

Iowa Democrats led in absentee ballots in 2010, but lost heavily in the general election. Currently, among active voters in Iowa, the GOP has a registration advantage of 11,000.

It is running about 2.2 points ahead of 2008.  That number has been growing.  The D's have increased slightly, by 0.1 points.  So there is now a net gain of 2.1 points.

NC is running about 3.2 points ahead of 2008, assuming McDonald was right that it was a R +20 point gap.

It is very clearly a small Republican trend.

Can Obama stop the trend tonight? 

[J. J.]

Today IA applications are running about 2.6 points ahead of 2008, and the gap is growing.

NC is running about 2.9 points ahead of 2008, with the gap decreasing.

I expect the NC numbers to change Saturday when Same day voting starts. 

[Lief 🗽]

Even if Romney is doing 2-3% better than in 2008, that's not nearly enough.

[J. J.]

Even if Romney is doing 2-3% better than in 2008, that's not nearly enough.

A lot of Obama's strength was in these absentee votes and in early voting.  And we are not talking about intraparty swing.  It is just a more GOP electorate. 

IA is slightly better than it was in 2004, currently, but very slightly.

[krazen1211]

GOP keeps closing gap in early vote in Iowa. Down 50-30 now after being down 60-22 on Oct. 5 and 54-27 one week ago.




2010: 45D 38R

[krazen1211]

Even if Romney is doing 2-3% better than in 2008, that's not nearly enough.

A lot of Obama's strength was in these absentee votes and in early voting.  And we are not talking about intraparty swing.  It is just a more GOP electorate. 

IA is slightly better than it was in 2004, currently, but very slightly.

Iowa voter registration:

Dec 2008:
D: 708996
R: 598850
I: 727979

current:

D: 611284
R: 622176
I: 675171

[J. J.]

IA R ballot applications is currently running 3.4 points ahead of 2008.

NC R ballot applications is currently running about 2.6 points ahead of 2008.

[Dan the Roman]

2010 in Iowa was

43.7% D
38.0% R

With  349,216 Votes, 100K less than total requests so far.

[J. J.]

2010 in Iowa was

43.7% D
38.0% R

With  349,216 Votes, 100K less than total requests so far.

I'm trying to do comparisons from a presidential year.  2010 isn't too relevant (though it is closing on a higher figure).

It isn't as good as 2004 (though the R's approaching the same percentage), but it is better than 2008.

[Mister Twister]

IA R ballot applications is currently running 3.4 points ahead of 2008.

So Romney is screwed in Iowa? 3.4% isn't anywhere close to swing the state

[J. J.]

IA R ballot applications is currently running 3.4 points ahead of 2008.

So Romney is screwed in Iowa? 3.4% isn't anywhere close to swing the state

Mo, it is a measure of enthusiasm since 2008.  In 2000, the R's came in ahead in absentee ballots, and lost the state.  In 2004, it was the D's, and they lost.

The 3.4 points is a change in the electorate.  If there was something similar with actual voters, it might mean that the polls there are too Democratic in terms of weighting.

There are some structural changes that might benefit the R's slightly as well.  100 voters can join and petition of an early voting site.

[Meeker]

Ballots in Washington were mailed starting Wednesday (some counties will mail Thursday and Friday). We don't have party registration though so there's nothing to track besides raw turnout.

Oregon ballots go out late this week or early next week depending on the county.

[krazen1211]

IA R ballot applications is currently running 3.4 points ahead of 2008.

So Romney is screwed in Iowa? 3.4% isn't anywhere close to swing the state

Mo, it is a measure of enthusiasm since 2008.  In 2000, the R's came in ahead in absentee ballots, and lost the state.  In 2004, it was the D's, and they lost.

The 3.4 points is a change in the electorate.  If there was something similar with actual voters, it might mean that the polls there are too Democratic in terms of weighting.

There are some structural changes that might benefit the R's slightly as well.  100 voters can join and petition of an early voting site.

Iowa early voting 2004 and 2008.

http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2004/general/2004StatewideStats.pdf

http://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2008/08StatReportStatewide.pdf

[krazen1211]

Even if Romney is doing 2-3% better than in 2008, that's not nearly enough.

A lot of Obama's strength was in these absentee votes and in early voting.  And we are not talking about intraparty swing.  It is just a more GOP electorate. 

IA is slightly better than it was in 2004, currently, but very slightly.

Yesterday:

50.3% D
29.8% R
19.9% I


Today:

49.5% D
30.3% R
20.2% I

[J. J.]

Yesterday:

50.3% D
29.8% R
19.9% I


Today:

49.5% D
30.3% R
20.2% I

Those are the votes cast.  As noted earlier on the thread, there was a surge of D voters initially.  That is rapidly declining and the applications are showing a stronger decline coming.

[rob in cal]

   The SUSA poll that came out yesterday of Ohio had 18% of total voters saying they had already voted.  This implies a total early vote of about 1 million, and I believe the total early vote so far according to Professor Mcdonald's site is only around half that.  Of course lots of ballots are in the mail, but I wonder if alot of people who said they have already voted actually mean they are going to shortly.

[Northeast Rep Snowball]

   The SUSA poll that came out yesterday of Ohio had 18% of total voters saying they had already voted.  This implies a total early vote of about 1 million, and I believe the total early vote so far according to Professor Mcdonald's site is only around half that.  Of course lots of ballots are in the mail, but I wonder if alot of people who said they have already voted actually mean they are going to shortly.

probablty, the inaccuracy of these kinds of things really annoys me

[SirMuxALot]

   The SUSA poll that came out yesterday of Ohio had 18% of total voters saying they had already voted. 

Interesting.  Since a previous OH poll had 19% already voted, it looks 1% of Ohioans chased down their local mailman, grabbed the mail bag off his shoulder or broke into his van, found the envelope they already mailed, and took it back home with them.

I think the pollsters will need a screening question set for "likely un-voters".

[Alcon]

   The SUSA poll that came out yesterday of Ohio had 18% of total voters saying they had already voted. 

Interesting.  Since a previous OH poll had 19% already voted, it looks 1% of Ohioans chased down their local mailman, grabbed the mail bag off his shoulder or broke into his van, found the envelope they already mailed, and took it back home with them.

I think the pollsters will need a screening question set for "likely un-voters".

I'm hoping you're just kidding around, because...margin of error.

[SirMuxALot]

I'm hoping you're just kidding around, because...margin of error.

Of course, I'm kidding, but just to extend this...

What is the margin of error on the "already voted" component?  How does the polling outfit screen out the crowd  who says they've voted but really haven't?

I only point this out because the previous poll that arrived at the 19% conclusion was a few days before the Ohio Secretary of State was reporting about 5.5% already voted (absentee + in-person early).

So unless the margin of error there is +/-13.5%...

[J. J.]

In terms of returned ballots, NC is running about 7 points more R than 2008.

Also in terms of returned ballots, IA is running about 1.1 more D than 2008.  However, the applications are showing a substantial gap.

[Minnesota Mike]

North Carolina

19 Days before Election 2012.

Total- 67,350
Republicans- 36,514  (54.22%)
Democrats 18,251- (27.1%)


19 days before Election 2008

Total- 54,367
Republicans- 30,053 (55.0%)
Democrats- 15,786 (28.89%)

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/gen2012/

The margin in North Carolina is almost exactly what it was at this point 4 years ago. Early in person voting started today so we should start seeing a big surge in total votes reported starting tomorrow. More votes will likely be cast in person today than the total mail in vote so far.