We've never had the exact same electoral map occur twice in any 2 elections

[JRP1994]

Vote!

[dspNY]

No. The map will be bluer than 2012, possibly a lot bluer

[Nichlemn]

Most probably not, but it's distinctly possible, yes. The map is more engrained with fewer swing states than in the past, so it wouldn't be surprising. If the popular vote were the same as in 2012, I don't think any state would be likely to flip. (Maaaaybe NC?)

[Higgs]

No. The map will be bluer than 2012, possibly a lot bluer

Agreed, perhaps something like this

[dspNY]

No. The map will be bluer than 2012, possibly a lot bluer

Agreed, perhaps something like this

No, I don't mean Atlas blue, I mean Democratic blue (aka Atlas Red)

[Higgs]

No. The map will be bluer than 2012, possibly a lot bluer

Agreed, perhaps something like this

No, I don't mean Atlas blue, I mean Democratic blue (aka Atlas Red)

I know, it was tongue in cheek

[dspNY]

Hillary 375 EV
Diminutive Digits 163 EV

[skoods]

Just seems super unlikely. Even if Clinton doesn't maximize the potential map like the post before mine, she's still likely to pick up one of Arizona or NC if the race stays similar to how it is now.

If it tightens, then we're again unlikely to see a map like 2012 as Trump would have a high likelihood of picking off Ohio.

[TDAS04]

It's definitely possible.

The most likely outcome imo is the same map except for NC.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

All of the closest states in 2012 went Democrat.

Except NC, which is trending Democrat.

So to keep NC Republican, you have to turn the PV knob Republican, without flipping any of the following:

Florida
Virginia
Ohio
Colorado
Pennsylvania
New Hampshire
Iowa
Ohio and Pennsylvania are going to be the most difficult.

A result similar to last year should do it, but NC, OH, and FL would all be very close.

[Senator Spark]

Voted no, it's highly unlikely

[Sir Mohamed]

It’s possible, but I think Hillary will gain NC, AZ and maybe GA or NE-2.

[Human]

It's highly likely.

[Xing]

It seems that several electoral truisms always cease to be true after each election. This could be one of them.

[Kingpoleon]

It seems that several electoral truisms always cease to be true after each election. This could be one of them.

Electoral truisms aren't really the case usually.

This is different, because the reason for this is because every four years there are different electoral circumstances and trends.

[emailking]

Yeah I think the difference is that a lot of people point out a truism as if to imply that it will apply to this next election too. It's a logical fallacy unless you can make an argument why the correlation should be expected to be strong. Here we're just musing about the prospects of a repeat map because it would be cool, even if it looks pretty unlikely this go around just based on the polls we've got.