Forward? – A 2012 Election Game (Gameplay Thread)

[Lumine]

Extra DEM Polling:

NATIONAL:

Hillary Clinton: 55%
Joe Biden: 42%
Undecided: 3%

NEW HAMPSHIRE:

Hillary Clinton: 61%
Joe Biden: 35%
Undecided: 4%

NEVADA:

Hillary Clinton: 55%
Joe Biden: 41%
Undecided: 4%

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Hillary Clinton: 50%
Joe Biden: 47%
Undecided: 3%

FLORIDA:

Hillary Clinton: 59%
Joe Biden: 36%
Undecided: 5%

MAINE:

Hillary Clinton: 53%
Joe Biden: 41%
Undecided: 6%

ARIZONA:

Hillary Clinton: 54%
Joe Biden: 40%
Undecided: 6%

MICHIGAN:

Hillary Clinton: 51%
Joe Biden: 44%
Undecided: 5%

[Lumine]

New Hampshire Primary Results:

"After a few hours of speculation on the potential size of a Clinton victory, we can confirm without doubt that Senator Hillary Clinton wins the New Hampshire Primary on a resounding victory against Vice-President Biden. On the other side, Vice-President Biden can draw some optimistic from riding an unexpected wave of so called "progressive" support which has seen Senator Clinton remaining slightly below 60%:

Democratic New Hampshire Primary:

Hillary Clinton: 59.79% (17)
Joe Biden: 40.21% (11)

Democratic Primary:

Delegates:

Hillary Clinton: 42
Joe Biden: 42

Superdelegates:

(Not included in the delegate count above)

Hillary Clinton: 12
Joe Biden: 7

"On the other side, the Republican Party sees a minor upset as Chris Christie underperforms after a harsh barrage of attacks against his campaign. Indeed, it seems the continued division of his opponents has saved the Governor from a larger embarassment, as his closest rival Ron Paul manages to break 25%. On a strong third Adam Carolla delivers on a decent result, and both Walter Jones and Ernie Fletcher manage to hold their ground above 10%.

Republican New Hampshire Primary:

Chris Christie: 33.91% (5)
Ron Paul: 25.16% (3)
Adam Carolla: 18.75% (2)
Walter Jones: 12.03% (1)
Ernie Fletcher: 10.15% (1)

Republican Primary:

Delegates:

Chris Christie: 24
Ernie Fletcher: 6
Ron Paul: 5
Walter Jones: 3
Adam Carolla: 2

[Lumine]

Turn Seven: Looking for Springboards:

January 11th to January 21st, 2012

In the News!

Two in a row for Clinton and Christie

Rivals doing better than expected, but can they rise further?

Democrats to the left?

Biden, Clinton embrace of SSM and other issues see Republicans take the lead

Governor Scott Walker to face recall election

One million signatures gathered to recall Wisconsin Republican governor

1.- Turn: This turn of roughly 10 days will take us to the Republican South Carolina Primary, and the Democratic Nevada Caucus. Please keep in mind the difference in which state goes for which party, and also keep in mind that the differences between a primary and a caucus can be exploited to your own advantage... if you're creative enough. Good luck!

GE Polling

RCP Average:
2012 Presidential Election:

Generic Republican: 47%
Generic Democrat: 42%
Wesley Clark: 8%
Undecided: 3%

Primary Polling

RCP: Republican Primary:

Chris Christie: 30%
Ernie Fletcher: 22%
Walter Jones: 20%
Ron Paul: 15%
Adam Carolla: 11%
Undecided: 2%

Republicans: Too son or too late?

For the first time, Chris Christie had been wounded by his rivals. Focused fire on his record meant the Governor was drowned out at times despite his skilled efforts as defending and attacking, and the loss was felt in New Hampshire and nationwide as some doubts were opened on his conservative credentials. On the other hand, the continued division of his rivals meant no candidate was strong enough to overcome Christie in New Hampshire, giving the Governor twin victories which may turn into unstoppable momentum if he triumphs in South Carolina and Florida.

On the other side and with Fred Upton gone, Walter Jones's momentum was halted by attacks on his record (and foreign policy views as well), and with Iowa and New Hampshire gone his status as a potential "anti-Christie" has weakened. Adam Carolla and Ron Paul benefited from strong debate performances and well aimed attacks, yet squandered much potential for growth on account of their stance on drugs - seemingly unpopular among most Republicans). Ultimately, the one who rose the most (if only for a couple of points) was Governor Fletcher, who has managed to avoid attacks to quietly position himself as a credible social conservative alternative. An ultimate test of sorts comes now in South Carolina, a state Christie has little chance to win.

Can Jones or Fletcher seize this unique chance to become the anti-Christie candidate?

RCP: Democratic Primary:

Hillary Clinton: 53%
Joe Biden: 43%
Undecided: 4%

Democrats: Racing to the Left

With a New Hampshire blowout seen as virtually secure, observers who saw Clinton as inevitable may have spoken too soon. An endorsement of Senator Russ Feingold and the adoption of a more openly progressive message in the debate and the campaign trail gave Vice-President Biden a fighting chance, and while when the smoke cleared out Senator Clinton has still scored a resounding victory in New Hampshire Biden had secured a respectable showing, and a tie in the delegate numbers (withut superdelegates). Clinton herself has been seen as taking on a more progressive message to counter Biden, with some positive and some negative results.

With the race tightening despite the sizable, strong Clinton lead and with national polling showing the Democrats falling behind the upcoming contests may be decisive for Biden to become truly viable or for Clinton to dispatch her rival before the primary turns long and grueling. And while South Carolina appears more decisive than Nevada, a victory in the caucus for either candidate will be seen as important momentum going forward (and in Clinton's case, having three significant victories in a row).

[Lumine]

GOP Average Polling:

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Ernie Fletcher: 33%
Walter Jones: 31%
Chris Christie: 20%
Ron Paul: 8%
Adam Carolla: 6%
Undecided: 2%

FLORIDA:

Chris Christie: 33%
Adam Carolla: 17%
Ernie Fletcher: 16%
Walter Jones: 15%
Ron Paul: 14%
Undecided: 5%

NEVADA:

Ron Paul: 31%
Adam Carolla: 18%
Chris Christie: 16%
Walter Jones: 15%
Ernie Fletcher: 13%
Fred Upton: 0%
Undecided: 5%

MAINE:

Chris Christie: 29%
Ron Paul: 27%
Adam Carolla: 15%
Walter Jones: 12%
Ernie Fletcher: 11%
Undecided: 6%

MINNESOTA:

Ernie Fletcher: 26%
Walter Jones: 25%
Ron Paul: 23%
Chris Christie: 13%
Adam Carolla: 8%
Undecided: 5%

COLORADO:

Chris Christie: 31%
Walter Jones: 19%
Ernie Fletcher: 19%
Ron Paul: 13%
Adam Carolla: 11%
Undecided: 7%

MISSOURI:

Ernie Fletcher: 30%
Walter Jones: 28%
Chris Christie: 21%
Ron Paul: 10%
Adam Carolla: 7%
Undecided: 4%

ARIZONA:

Chris Christie: 30%
Walter Jones: 24%
Ernie Fletcher: 21%
Ron Paul: 11%
Adam Carolla: 8%
Undecided: 6%

MICHIGAN:

Ernie Fletcher: 33%
Chris Christie: 28%
Walter Jones: 20%
Ron Paul: 8%
Adam Carolla: 5%
Undecided: 6%

[Lumine]

DEM Average Polling:

NEVADA:

Hillary Clinton: 54%
Joe Biden: 43%
Undecided: 3%

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Hillary Clinton: 51%
Joe Biden: 48%
Undecided: 1%

FLORIDA:

Hillary Clinton: 58%
Joe Biden: 38%
Undecided: 3%

MAINE:

Hillary Clinton: 52%
Joe Biden: 43%
Undecided: 5%

ARIZONA:

Hillary Clinton: 54%
Joe Biden: 41%
Undecided: 5%

MICHIGAN:

Hillary Clinton: 50%
Joe Biden: 46%
Undecided: 4%

[Lumine]

Endorsements from Turn Six:

Christie: Nikki Haley, John McCain.
Fletcher: Marco Rubio, The Post & Courier.
Corella: Sylvester Stallone, Bruce Willis.
Paul: Peter Schiff
Jones: Joe Arpaio, Michael Savage.

Clinton: Dan Malloy, Brian Schweitzer.
Biden: Carl Levin, John Lewis.

Clark: Carte Goodwin, Artur Davis.

[Lumine]

Fletcher under fire:

Initially a near quixotic bid for the Presidency following a landslide defeat in Kentucky back in 2007, Governor Ernie Fletcher (R-KY) rapidly displayed campaigning skill and benefited both from the departure of several social conservative candidates as well as avoiding some of the more harsh blows delivered on the primary. That has changed. It was the National Review who published a story today (days before the South Carolina Primary) in which a prominent source (thought to come from a rival campaign) claimed that after the endorsement of Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI) and his campaigning for the Governor, Fletcher was prepared to choose Upton as his Vice-Presidential pick should he win the nomination.

The news has sparked a negative reaction from many prominent conservatives, who saw with dismay and anger the controversial comments of Upton's presidential campaign and his "excessive" turn towards the left, often leaving him at odds with the Republican Party on most key issues. Many, like former Speaker Newt Gingrich, have asked Fletcher to immediate rule out the story or else face a drop in support among Republican conservatives, who strongly feel a moderate running mate (and one as moderate as Upton) would make the ticket "untrustworthy on the issues." It remains to be seen what damage will Fletcher take in the upcoming South Carolina Primary due to this controversy.

[Lumine]

Debate Winners:

GOP:

Congressman Jones being unable to join the debate, just four candidates made it to the debate stage in South Carolina, all giving what were considered to be spirited performances. The debate was, however, more defined by the constant back and forth between Paul, Christie and Fletcher, candidates who seemed determined to block attacks and inflict harm on their contenders. Isolation from the main fight meant Carolla was the least prominent candidate in the debate, but at the same time sustained no harm. Paul and Christie were involved in a bitter struggle over foreign policy, and Fletcher casted sustained doubts on Christie's records that forced the governor to play defence.

As a result, and despite very strong responses to the main questions, it was commonly agreed Christie emerged from the debate more wounded than his opponents, with Paul also sustaining a fair share of damage over foreign policy views which are unpopular with other candidates. This left Governor Ernie Fletcher as the last man standing, critically aided by the lack of wounding criticism of his views or record by most candidates and giving him a key boost before the primary.

DEM:

With Senator Clinton not attending the debate (which drew a fair share of criticism towards her), the Democratic debate essentially turned into free airtime for Vice-President Biden, a decisive, unprecedent commodity which could have been exploited to the full and given the Vice-President decisive momentum. It was therefore surprising to see the Vice-President make several gaffes or go all the way for the progressive vote, drawing much criticism over his remarks on the Civil War, Speaker Pelosi and particularly Justice Clarence Thomas. Being the sole candidate on stage Vice President Biden managed to secure his hold of the left of the party and continue inroads in some important demographics, but at the cost of scaring away many moderate voters to the Clinton camp, and potentially hurting the party's national polling. It remains to be sene which effect is stronger.

[Lumine]

Primary Analysis:

"What do we make of the past days in the Democratic primary?"

Pundit 1: Disappointing seems like the best word. Biden blew an excellent opportunity.

Pundit 2: Yes and no. It may hurt him in GE polling, but he has to win the primary first. His style of campaign over the past month or so could help him in South Carolina, and he absolutely needs that state to move forward.

Pundit 3: I think there's an honest question as to whether it may be too late. Biden is virtually not contesting Nevada, and with Clinton having settled there for the past days polling suggest her victory will be larger than expected. And that's three victories in a row.

Pundit 1: It's certainly Clinton's race to lose, this nomination. Biden has been closing the gap with substantial success, but I get the feeling it will take something important to truly change the game.

"And the Republicans?"

Pundit 2: Quite a fight they're having now. It's turning into a fiery contest.

Pundit 1: I think Christie's going to take the most damage out of this. Don't get me wrong, his campaign efforts are superb. But when you're forced to defend your record then your rivals are doing something right.

Pundit 3: I don't think it's doubtful that Fletcher will win this primary, but the margin will matter. Lest we forget, he has avoided significant attacks on his record, so his low recognition has allowed him to brand himself successfully.

Pundit 2: Indeed, I think he'll win as well. The margin of victory is the thing to watch.

Pundit 1: Can't believe I'm saying this, but don't count Ron Paul out of this one. His campaign efforts were not as good as Fletcher or Christie, but he did well in the debate and could give a surprise.

Pundit 3: And Christie?

Pundit 2: That's the real question. He has noteworthy advantages, particularly having much better quality and effect in advertising. It has to be seen whether he surpasses attacks on his record to do well here.

"I'm told we can finally make a projection for Nevada and South Carolina, let's go to the results

Primary Results:

"We can formally project Senator Hillary Clinton will defeat Vice-President Joe Biden at the Nevada Caucus, surpassing the margin projected in the polls and doing very well at delegate hunting. With the third consecutive victory for Clinton, all eyes will be on South Carolina and Florida now:

Democratic Nevada Caucus:

Hillary Clinton: 58.87% (21)
Joe Biden: 41.13% (15)

Democratic Primary:

Delegates:

Hillary Clinton: 63
Joe Biden: 57

Superdelegates:

(Not included in the delegate count above)

Hillary Clinton: 18
Joe Biden: 9

"And in the Republican primary, Governor Ernie Fletcher does indeed win a major victory by surpassing 37% of the vote. Governor Christie holds second place far away with 21%, and as Walter Jones suffers a tough blow to his aspirations Ron Paul rebounds to 13% following an effective campaign. This is certainly a major boost for the former Kentucky Governor, but it remains to be seen if he can sustain this momentum.

Republican South Carolina Primary:

Ernie Fletcher: 37.25% (25)
Chris Christie: 21.71% (0)
Walter Jones: 19.62% (0)
Ron Paul: 13.98% (0)
Adam Carolla: 7.44% (0)

Republican Primary:

Delegates:

Ernie Fletcher: 31
Chris Christie: 24
Ron Paul: 5
Walter Jones: 3
Adam Carolla: 2

[Lumine]

Turn Eight: Gunfight at the Sunshine State:

January 22nd to January 31st, 2012

In the News!

Fletcher triumphs in South Carolina

Can the anti-Christie candidate consolidate the conservative forces?

Decisive battles in South Carolina, Florida

Biden in need for a victory in SC, GOP challengers look towards Florida

Obama delivers 2012 State of the Union Address

President defends his record as his successor remains unclear

Right to Work arrives in Indiana

Indiana House passes controversial measure curbing unions

1.- Turn: This turn takes us to the end of January, and involves the Florida Primary (both parties) and the Democratic South Carolina primary. While the Democratic Primaries remain proportional (excepting super-delegates), Florida and its 50 delegates are winner take all. Not a prize to be ignored!

GE Polling

RCP Average:
2012 Presidential Election:

Generic Republican: 47%
Generic Democrat: 41%
Wesley Clark: 8%
Undecided: 4%

Primary Polling

RCP: Republican Primary:

Chris Christie: 29%
Ernie Fletcher: 27%
Ron Paul: 16%
Walter Jones: 13%
Adam Carolla: 12%
Undecided: 3%

Republicans: Fletchermentum?

Despite constantly well-planned efforts to secure the nomination, Governor Christie continues to face trouble to "seal the deal" as his rivals constantly attack his conservative credentials. With Walter Jones taking a substantial hit before the South Carolina primary, Governor Ernie Fletcher suddenly became the so called "conservative alternative" to Christie and shot up in the polls in the aftermath of South Carolina, giving him a credible shot at the nomination as Ron Paul and Adam Carolla make limited gains.

And yet, a crucial challenge lays ahead in the Florida Primary, a massive contest with much larger numbers of voters than past limited primaries. A victory in the Sunshine State not only would give the winner 50 crucial delegates, it provides a decisive chance for Christie and Fletcher to inflict serious harm to the loser.  It is also noteworthy for being the state in which Adam Carolla has focused the most, and should he upset Fletcher and Christie in this key battleground the race may become wide open.

RCP: Democratic Primary:

Hillary Clinton: 54%
Joe Biden: 43%
Undecided: 3%

Democrats: Two battlegrounds

A somewhat low key week after New Hampshire drama, Vice-President Joe Biden failed to fully exploit the advantages of a debate for himself, while at the same time making some gains among progressives and African-American voters. This was countered by Clinton being virtually uncontested in Nevada, delivering a third victory for the Senator and putting the Biden campaign in a decisive moment. All eyes are on Florida and South Carolina now, states that may determine whether Senator Clinton will sail to the nomination without further problems or whether Vice-President Biden can force a long contest, in which he has a significant chance at victory.

[Lumine]

GOP Average Polling:

FLORIDA:

Chris Christie: 39%
Ernie Fletcher: 24%
Adam Carolla: 20%
Ron Paul: 15%
Walter Jones: 8%
Undecided: 4%

NEVADA:

Ron Paul: 34%
Adam Carolla: 19%
Ernie Fletcher: 18%
Chris Christie: 15%
Walter Jones: 10%
Undecided: 4%

MAINE:

Ron Paul: 29%
Chris Christie: 29%
Adam Carolla: 16%
Ernie Fletcher: 14%
Walter Jones: 7%
Undecided: 5%

MINNESOTA:

Ernie Fletcher: 30%
Ron Paul: 24%
Walter Jones: 19%
Chris Christie: 12%
Adam Carolla: 9%
Undecided: 6%

COLORADO:

Chris Christie: 29%
Ernie Fletcher: 27%
Ron Paul: 14%
Walter Jones: 13%
Adam Carolla: 12%
Undecided: 5%

MISSOURI:

Ernie Fletcher: 38%
Walter Jones: 19%
Chris Christie: 19%
Ron Paul: 11%
Adam Carolla: 8%
Undecided: 5%

ARIZONA:

Chris Christie: 28%
Ernie Fletcher: 27%
Walter Jones: 17%
Ron Paul: 13%
Adam Carolla: 10%
Undecided: 5%

MICHIGAN:

Ernie Fletcher: 37%
Chris Christie: 25%
Walter Jones: 15%
Ron Paul: 10%
Adam Carolla: 7%
Undecided: 6%

[Lumine]

DEM Average Polling:

SOUTH CAROLINA:

Joe Biden: 52%
Hillary Clinton: 46%
Undecided: 2%

FLORIDA:

Hillary Clinton: 57%
Joe Biden: 39%
Undecided: 4%

MAINE:

Hillary Clinton: 53%
Joe Biden: 41%
Undecided: 6%

ARIZONA:

Hillary Clinton: 55%
Joe Biden: 41%
Undecided: 4%

MICHIGAN:

Hillary Clinton: 49%
Joe Biden: 47%
Undecided: 4%

[Lumine]

Endorsements from Turn Seven:

Christie: Paul Ryan.
Fletcher: Matt Blunt, The Greenville News.
Corella: Buzz Aldrin, Adrian Wyllie.
Paul: Peter Thiel, Jim Jordan.

Biden: Al Gore, Sherrod Brown.

Clark: Lowell Weicker, Gary Hart.

[Lumine]

Chris Christie suffers heart attack:
NJ Gov. survives, but is forced to withdraw before critical FL Primary

While some questions had been raised regarding Gov. Chris Christie health, the Governor's fiery disposition and campaigning had put those questions to rest, leading most to conclude Christie had more than enough energy and health to win. However, his body resenting months of campaigning and the Governor exerting and pushing his body to the limit as the campaign in Florida heated up led to a personal tragedy as the Governor collapsed shortly after a particularly energized rally, all signs pointing to a heart attack.

Despite some tense hours it became clear Governor Christie would survive (and the damage was far less than originally expected), but it was judged impossible by himself, his wife and his closest advisers to continue in the race after such a tense health care. And while Christie has vowed to recover quickly and remain Governor of New Jersey, he dropped out of the race with only days to go until the decisive Florida Primary. Pundits have rushed to make their own predictions of the rapidly shrinking GOP field, most concluding Governor Ernie Fletcher is now the clear frontrunner against the insurgent bids of Ron Paul and Adam Carolla.

Still, the departure of the last "establishment" candidate has left many prominent GOP officeholders confused as how to react. While Governor Fletcher is acceptable to most of the party, there many who doubt he can defeat Senator Clinton or Vice-President Biden. Talk has shifted towards the possibility or one or two so called "white knights" to enter the primaries at this late stage (as almost all delegates are still are up for grabs) and make a push to challenge the surviving candidates.

[Lumine]

Debate Winner:

GOP:

With only three candidates left standing, Carolla, Paul and Fletcher all took the stage as in the span of a few days 50% of the Florida GOP vote (and almost 40% of the national vote) was virtually up for grabs in the twin departure of Jones and Christie. Unlike the past debates, few (if any) direct criticisms or attacks took place, the time spent by the three candidates (who remain unknown to many across the nation even now) describing their various views and philosophies on crucial matters. With Adam Carolla remaining third, the fight between Fletcher and Paul was close but with a clear edge for Congressman Ron Paul, who was successful in appealing to many Tea Party types in the wake of his Jones endorsement. While this is believed to substantially improve his credibility, several of Paul's stances on the issues are not to the taste of many Republicans (even when compared to Fletcher, and so it will remain to be seen how high or how low his ceiling might be.

[Lumine]

Primary Results:

"Upon a fascinating campaign, which included brutal attacks on the airwaves against Vice-President Joe Biden, we can see the Vice-President obtaining his much needed victory in South Carolina after virtually gambling his campaign on it. On the other side of the coin, Clinton's attacks appear to have been highly damaging in Florida, with the Senator trouncing the Vice-President and taking a firm lead in the delegate count:

Democratic South Carolina Primary:

Joe Biden: 55.21% (30)
Hillary Clinton: 44.19% (25)

Democratic Florida Primary:

Hillary Clinton: 58.87% (163)
Joe Biden: 41.13% (113)

Democratic Primary:

Delegates:

Hillary Clinton: 251
Joe Biden: 200

Superdelegates:

(Not included in the delegate count above)

Hillary Clinton: 37
Joe Biden: 20[color]

"And on the reduced Republican field, it appears Ron Paul has scored quite the upset following a debate victory and an inspired campaign in Florida despite being considered a poor fit for the state. While Governor Ernie Fletcher achieves the predicted victory in this vital state and walks away with 50 delegates, he's kept below 40% as Congressman Paul reaches 33%, followed by Carolla's 27%. Doubtlessly a result that cements Governor Fletcher as the frontrunner for the nomination, but casts Ron Paul as a credible and strong rival, and heralds the arrival of new Republican candidates to the race.

Republican Florida Primary:

Ernie Fletcher: 39.29% (50)
Ron Paul: 33.55% (0)
Adam Carolla: 27.16% (0)

Republican Primary:

Delegates:

Ernie Fletcher: 81
Ron Paul: 8
Adam Carolla: 2
Uncommitted: 24

[Lumine]

Turn Nine: The Plot Thickens:

February 1st to February 7th, 2012

In the News!

Christie, Jones withdrawal stuns GOP

Voters up for grabs as Ernie Fletcher becomes frontrunner

Biden wins SC, lives to fight another day

Vice-President carries on, but takes substantial damage from ad attacks

Three new challengers for the GOP

Establishment in panic, Bachmann, Santorum and Brown join primary

1.- Turn: This turn covers a single week, but a crucial one in politics. In OTL this featured the aftermath of Gingrich's meltdown in Florida and the shock rise of Santorum, and this may be a chance for you to score upsets in the middle of a confusing political situation. The battles to fight are the Republican and Maine caucuses in February 4, and on February 7 we will have the Minnesota caucus (both parties), Colorado Caucus (Republican), Missouri Primary (Democratic) and the Missouri "Beauty Contest" (Republican, a primary with no actual delegates, but with considerable momentum and prestige associated).

GE Polling

RCP Average:
2012 Presidential Election:

Generic Republican: 44%
Generic Democrat: 44%
Wesley Clark: 7%
Undecided: 5%

Primary Polling

RCP: Republican Primary:

Ernie Fletcher: 31%
Ron Paul: 20%
Adam Carolla: 16%
Scott Brown: 13%
Michelle Bachmann: 8%
Rick Santorum: 6%
Undecided: 6%

Republicans: Confusion in the GOP

Fully expecting a showdown between Fletcher and Christie to determine who the frontrunner for the nomination would be, the GOP had no way to predict the events that would ensure in the first couple of days after the South Carolina Primary. The withdrawal of Walter Jones stunned plenty in the party despite fears of his campain no longer being viable, and his endorsement of Ron Paul opened some speculation as to whether there could be another credible challenger in the making. The heart attack suffered by Chris Christie and his exit from the primary with several days to go until Florida, however, meant that all hell broke loose.

All of a sudden, large parts of the GOP voting base had been left without a candidate, and the establishment panicked. Having bet heavily on Christie after Romney left the stage (and relying on the Governor's strong GE polling), they were soon left with an unappealing field which featured two Libertarian-aligned candidates not to their taste (Carolla and Paul) and Fletcher, who despite having more credibility as a former Governor is seen as unelectable on account of his past indictment. These misgivings also reached many Tea Party supporters, who weren't fully sold on Paul's views as an obvious alternative.

As Paul, Carolla and Fletcher fought to secure Florida and win a decisive sprinboard, frantic discussions took place in the backstage in the attempt to fight a so called "white knight" to contest the nomination and save the GOP from what many considered potential defeat. With Carolla soon left behind in Florida against the superior organization of his contenders, Fletcher continued to make progress to build his national image due to his continous attack on "political games" (which, constantly unanswered, have allowed him to start crafting his own reputation in the minds of the voters), but was undercut by what many have begun to consider repetitive adversiting. It was therefore a surprise that Congressman Paul stepped up decisively with strong debate performances, advertising and campaiging despite the unpopularity of his views among many in the party.

Paul rode a wave of momentum that placed him strong in Florida and gave him the claim to be the strongest challenger to now frontrunner Fletcher. And the morning after the primary, the three new Republican candidates (all very unexpected names) made their sudden appearance: Senator Scott Brown, former Senator Rick Santorum and Rep. Michelle Bachmann, all known for Tea Party or social conservative ties rather than Establishment or fully moderate credentials. What would happen next?

RCP: Democratic Primary:

Hillary Clinton: 56%
Joe Biden: 41%
Undecided: 3%

Democrats: An inevitable nominee?

In a primary that continues to be fascinating despite lacking as much drama as the GOP race, Vice-President Biden and Senator Clinton fought what seemed to be a stalemate in the latest contests, with Biden taking South Carolina and Clinton capturing Florida. Still, it has been noted by many that the latest days can be considered a significant success by Hilary Clinton, who not only make decisive delegate gains in Florida, but has also expanded her national lead over Biden as a series of anti-Biden ads start to make impact and heavy damage. Clinton, some argue, is more hurt by the circumstances of the primary (having challenged and dethroned a President beloved by a wing of the party and by minority voters) than by current events, having led solid efforts and a message that somewhat dulls the distrust she inspires among some in the party.

By contrast, many observers continue to be disappointed with Vice-President Biden, who while successful in pivoting to the left and claiming a progressive mantle, has failed to expand his base of supporters and has been repeatedly surpassed by Clinton in organization and messaging. The latest example came last week, as the lack of advertising compared to Clinton's harsh attacks had very negative effects for the Biden campaign and their standing in the polls, which beings to slip away. There are those who believe Biden has what it takes to turn the race around and stun Clinton, but there is a question of whether the Vice-President will be able to make the ambitious, large-scale effort that it would take to change the course of the primary.

[Lumine]

GOP Average Polling:

NEVADA:

Ron Paul: 36%
Adam Carolla: 21%
Ernie Fletcher: 21%
Scott Brown: 9%
Michelle Bachmann: 5%
Rick Santorum: 4%
Undecided: 4%

MAINE:

Ron Paul: 32%
Scott Brown: 23%
Adam Carolla: 18%
Ernie Fletcher: 16%
Michelle Bachmann: 3%
Rick Santorum: 2%
Undecided: 6%

MINNESOTA:

Ernie Fletcher: 27%
Michelle Bachmann: 24%
Ron Paul: 23%
Adam Carolla: 13%
Scott Brown: 8%
Rick Santorum: 3%
Undecided: 3%

COLORADO:

Ernie Fletcher: 31%
Ron Paul: 20%
Scott Brown: 17%
Adam Carolla: 12%
Michelle Bachmann: 10%
Rick Santorum: 5%
Undecided: 5%

MISSOURI:

Ernie Fletcher: 39%
Michelle Bachmann: 14%
Rick Santorum: 13%
Ron Paul: 11%
Scott Brown: 10%
Adam Carolla: 9%
Undecided: 4%

ARIZONA:

Ernie Fletcher: 32%
Scott Brown: 19%
Ron Paul: 17%
Adam Carolla: 13%
Michelle Bachmann: 7%
Rick Santorum: 5%
Undecided: 7%

MICHIGAN:

Ernie Fletcher: 40%
Scott Brown: 19%
Michelle Bachmann: 12%
Ron Paul: 11%
Adam Carolla: 8%
Rick Santorum: 4%
Undecided: 8%

WASHINGTON:

Adam Carolla: 25%
Ernie Fletcher: 23%
Ron Paul: 21%
Scott Brown: 11%
Michelle Bachmann: 7%
Rick Santorum: 5%
Undecided: 8%

[Lumine]

DEM Average Polling:

MINNESOTA:

Joe Biden: 52%
Hillary Clinton: 44%
Undecided: 4%

MISSOURI:

Hillary Clinton: 53%
Joe Biden: 42%
Undecided: 5%

MAINE:

Hillary Clinton: 54%
Joe Biden: 40%
Undecided: 6%

ARIZONA:

Hillary Clinton: 57%
Joe Biden: 38%
Undecided: 5%

MICHIGAN:

Hillary Clinton: 48%
Joe Biden: 48%
Undecided: 4%

[Lumine]

Debate Winner:

GOP:

With only Brown and Paul not attending (Senator Brown's campaign having a slow start), Fletcher, Carolla and new challengers Santorum and Bachmann contested the debate before a string of important caucuses, and it was by most accounts a relatively balanced one in terms of performances. At the start of the debate it seemed as if Senator Santorum was about to have a good night, until unconvincing responses on the economy (particularly one that made him look aloof and uncaring) sank his performance to fourth place. Adam Carolla suffered from a similar case, having started weak and hurting himself by offering some support for Occupy Wall Street, and then recovering to place himself third.

This left Fletcher and Bachmann in a narrow fight for the first place, and while Governor Fletcher has shown particular skill in expanding his base, an attempt to pivot a foreign policy question to domestic territory was seen as a mistake, particularly as most GOP voters do not know yet what Fletcher's foreign policy vision is. As a result, and despite some questionable statements made, it was Representative Michelle Bachmann who was seen to have the most effective performance in terms of appealing to hrer base, aiding her efforts to surge as a grassroots, Tea Party candidate.

DEM:

For the first time in some weeks, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden took the stage to debate before two important primaries, and the debate was widely judged to be one of the best ones so far (although many have judged most Democratic debates thus far as disappointing). Both Clinton and Biden addressed a variety of subjects and policy areas crucial to their own voting bases and to appeal to more voters, and in that task both showed some skill in bringing new voters on board. The two fundamental issues that made the difference is that many voters were unconvinced by Biden's claims that he was a better candidate by virtue of being "less hated", and that Senator Clinton appeared to possess a better grasp of detail and policy which made her look more Presidential. As a result, and despite a stronger showing by the Vice-President, it was Senator Hillary Clinton who was judged the victor.

[Lumine]

Primary Results:

"Following a debate victory and a continued supremacy in the airwaves, which Vice-President Biden has been unable to counter, we can predict a strong victory for Hillary Clinton in Missouri. Minnesota appears to have gone for Biden due to his own local campaign efforts, but with a weaker margin of victory than expected:"

Democratic Minnesota Caucus:

Joe Biden: 52.31% (47)
Hillary Clinton: 47.69% (44)

Democratic Missouri Primary:

Hillary Clinton: 56.55% (44)
Joe Biden: 43.45% (33)[/color]

Democratic Primary:

Delegates:

Hillary Clinton: 339
Joe Biden: 280

Superdelegates:

(Not included in the delegate count above)

Hillary Clinton: 51
Joe Biden: 35[color]

"The Republicans, in the meantime, feature two victories for Ernie Fletcher and Ron Paul each, as both win the caucuses and primaries they were predicted to a week ago. However, Rick Santorum has performed strongly in Missouri, and Michele Bachmann not only secured a strong, very helpful win in her homestate of Minnesota, but saw significant gains across the board and particularly in Colorado and Missouri:

Republican Missouri Primary:

Ernie Fletcher: 38.73%
Michele Bachmann: 22.06%
Rick Santorum: 18.51%
Ron Paul: 8.53%
Adam Carolla: 7.20%
Scott Brown: 4.97%

Republican Colorado Caucus:

Ernie Fletcher: 35.53% (21)
Michele Bachmann: 21.70% (7)
Ron Paul: 14.33% (4)
Adam Carolla: 13.77% (4)
Rick Santorum: 5.46%
Scott Brown: 9.21%

Republican Nevada Caucus:

Ron Paul: 34.81% (11)
Adam Carolla: 24.89% (6)
Ernie Fletcher: 24.66% (6)
Michele Bachmann: 6.44% (2)
Rick Santorum: 5.17% (2)
Scott Brown: 4.03% (1)

Republican Maine Caucus:

Ron Paul: 30.88% (9)
Adam Carolla: 21.31% (6)
Ernie Fletcher: 20.40% (5)
Scott Brown: 16.04% (3)
Michele Bachmann: 8.23% (1)
Rick Santorum: 3.14%

Republican Minnesota Caucus:

Michele Bachmann: 38.82% (24)
Ernie Fletcher: 22.95% (7)
Ron Paul: 20.05% (6)
Adam Carolla: 10.21% (3)
Scott Brown: 4.30%
Rick Santorum: 3.67%

Republican Primary:

Delegates:

Ernie Fletcher: 120
Ron Paul: 39
Michele Bachmann: 34
Uncommitted: 24
Adam Carolla: 20
Scott Brown: 4
Rick Santorum: 2