Romney to announce running mate on Saturday @9am ET in Norfolk, VA

[milhouse24]

Looks like if Jeb is picked, it really would be a last minute surprise.  The liberal spin will be that Romney is desperate and throwing a hail mary with Jeb, among other negative things.  If Jeb doesn't allow the vetting, it seems he really is off the list.  Of the names that have allowed vetting, it seems they are relatively young and new politicians, with 2 years of service or less.  Portman, Ayotte, Ryan, and Rubio aren't BIG NAME candidates yet and their experience level is low.  It seems that the group is mostly for PR purposes and not realistic options.  Perhaps Romney wants to vet them for Cabinet positions.  Of the vetting group, Portman only seems like a realistic choice.

[RogueBeaver]

Those people aren't big names? *facepalm*

[milhouse24]

Those people aren't big names? *facepalm*

There's a difference being a Big "media" name and a Big "well-deserved" name.  Most of those people who are being vetted now have served less than a term in their current position.  Sarah Palin is a big name, but I would not pick her to be VP. 

John McCain, John Kerry, Joe Biden are Big Names with experience. 

John Edwards and Obama were just big names built by media exposure. 

[Mr. Morden]

I never discount the possibility that someone may be lying about this stuff, but if Bush and Haley are telling the truth about not being vetted and not being willing to undergo the vet even if they were asked, then the chances of them getting picked is zero.  Everyone has to go through the vetting process in order to be picked.  At least, that's the way it's been for decades, and I don't see Romney of all people overturning that.  Even Palin in 2008 was vetted, in so far as she filled out the questionnaire that the McCain campaign gave her, and turned over all the relevant financial and legal records that the campaign asked for.  Where the McCain campaign dropped the ball was in failing to do much of a deeper investigation of her record in public office.

Anyway, here's a new story on the Romney VP search that suggests that there's at least a chance that Romney will name his running mate early:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47656279

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[morgieb]

I don't take Veep denials that seriously.

[milhouse24]

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/05/30/11963716-thune-says-hes-open-to-being-romneys-vp?lite

It looks like Thune has changed his tune and wants to be VP.  If Romney does not choose Thune, then it will be severely disappointing in political strategy.  All of the other VP candidates are mediocre compared to Thune.  He's a rising star and he'll win over southern evangelicals and midwesterners including Iowa.  Good VP picks are usually not a surprise or newbie selections.  You can usually spot a strong VP candidate at least 2 years before election day.  Newbie media flavors of the month like Rubio don't have the chops to handle national office at this point in their lives. 

[Paul Kemp]

Thune is the next Quayle.

[milhouse24]

Thune is the next Quayle.

What makes you think Thune is like Quayle?

[Wisconsin+17]

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Damn, who could have predicted Romney needing the support of Southern Evangelicals and midwesterners. 

[milhouse24]

...Anyway, here's a new story on the Romney VP search that suggests that there's at least a chance that Romney will name his running mate early:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47656279

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There isn't a lot of precedent for this, though I think it's a good idea. Why not go ahead and form the ticket and start introducing yourself to the American public? But if you look back to at least the last 30+ years, only once was a VP nominee named more than a week out from the convention, and that was John Edwards in '04 (named on July 6, 20 days before the start of the DNC). But both Obama and McCain picked Biden and Palin just 3 days before their respective conventions. Lieberman was announced on August 7, 2000, and the convention started on August 14th. Cheney was named July 25th, 2000, and the convention was just 6 days later. Same is true for Dole-Kemp, Clinton-Gore, Bush-Quayle, Dukakis-Bentsen, Mondale-Ferraro (I stopped looking at this point.)

I doubt Romney breaks the tradition on this, but I'd like it if he does. If he pulls a John Kerry, 20 days before the RNC would be August 7th.

It might look desperate at 20 days, to get publicity and whatever.  2 weeks should be good.  

In the past, it was more about the "surprise" factor and building up suspense.  Obama made a big media circus out of it for several weeks with his 3 finalists.  

I don't think Romney wants to shock or surprise people, he just wants to announce it and then start campaigning hard against Obama.  I'm doubtful Romney will announce a finalists list either because it would damage the ego of the losers to have the media camped out of their houses.  

[Mr. Morden]

I'm doubtful Romney will announce a finalists list either because it would damage the ego of the losers to have the media camped out of their houses.  

Romney is almost certainly going to leak the names of the finalists, so that he can gauge the media reaction to them before making a final decision.  He won't want a repeat of Palin in 2008, where the pick catches people by surprise.

[tpfkaw]

I'm doubtful Romney will announce a finalists list either because it would damage the ego of the losers to have the media camped out of their houses.  

Romney is almost certainly going to leak the names of the finalists, so that he can gauge the media reaction to them before making a final decision.  He won't want a repeat of Palin in 2008, where the pick catches people by surprise.

That'd be a terrible move - the genius of the Palin pick was the surprise factor; there was nothing but round-the-clock positive coverage for a full week.  If Palin had 20 more I.Q. points she would've been the best VP choice in history and John McCain would be President today.

[RogueBeaver]

Not after the stock market crashed, but that's for another thread.

As for finalists, we have a pretty good idea about who might make that list.

[milhouse24]

I'm doubtful Romney will announce a finalists list either because it would damage the ego of the losers to have the media camped out of their houses.  

Romney is almost certainly going to leak the names of the finalists, so that he can gauge the media reaction to them before making a final decision.  He won't want a repeat of Palin in 2008, where the pick catches people by surprise.

He'll probably leak the top 5 names.  But he's not going to build up suspense by announcing at the last minute before the convention, and having the media camp out at people's houses.  He'll release the finals list a month before, and then announce the VP 2 weeks before the convention. 

[milhouse24]

I'm doubtful Romney will announce a finalists list either because it would damage the ego of the losers to have the media camped out of their houses.  

Romney is almost certainly going to leak the names of the finalists, so that he can gauge the media reaction to them before making a final decision.  He won't want a repeat of Palin in 2008, where the pick catches people by surprise.

That'd be a terrible move - the genius of the Palin pick was the surprise factor; there was nothing but round-the-clock positive coverage for a full week.  If Palin had 20 more I.Q. points she would've been the best VP choice in history and John McCain would be President today.

Of course, if Palin had a higher IQ, she would not be such a surprise pick. 
She was a shock pick because she was a newbie, young, naive, and unsure candidate.  If she were anywhere near a smart candidate, the press would have been aware of her presence.
 
In this 24-7 media age, every competent smart politician will have a strong media presence that should never shock the media coverage. 
If you pick an "out-of-nowhere" shocking rube VP, then you are severely doing something wrong.  McCain gambled on Palin and threw a hail mary, and it was a foolish dangerous gamble that proved how dangerous and incompentent it is picking an unknown incompetent person as VP. 

You can play games with the media all day, but if you try to hard to fool the media, you're probably going to end up fooling yourself and making a fool out of yourself. 

Transparency is important because it proves you are a smart/competent person.  When people hide from the press, they have something embarrassing to hide.  McCain hid Palin from the press and it proved that he was the one looking stupid in the end. 

Besides, if Romney picks Thune or Portman, it will be hardly a surprise.  The only "surprise" candidate worth the "surprise" is Jeb Bush since the liberal media would attack Jeb personally from day one. 

[Mr. Morden]

I'm doubtful Romney will announce a finalists list either because it would damage the ego of the losers to have the media camped out of their houses.  

Romney is almost certainly going to leak the names of the finalists, so that he can gauge the media reaction to them before making a final decision.  He won't want a repeat of Palin in 2008, where the pick catches people by surprise.

That'd be a terrible move - the genius of the Palin pick was the surprise factor; there was nothing but round-the-clock positive coverage for a full week.  If Palin had 20 more I.Q. points she would've been the best VP choice in history and John McCain would be President today.

The point is that if McCain had leaked the fact that Palin was one of the finalists several weeks in advance, then she would have gotten some media scrutiny before the fact, and people might have actually realized that she was missing those 20 IQ points.  Then McCain could have actually decided to pick someone else if it looked like this wasn't going to work.  Or the campaign at least would have been more prepared for handling her.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I will always believe Palin was actually a net-positive.

I still remember waking up the day of that rally and seeing Sarah Palin speak. I had no idea who she was, but I was smiling the whole time. It was probably the first time in months that I'd thought Obama could actually lose. It was absolutely thrilling.

[ShadowRocket]

Something to consider in regards to the timing of Romney's running mate annoucement is the Olmypics, which run from July 27 to August 12. He's more than likely not going to make during that time period. So an early pick from him would break the three week early record set by Kerry.

I think he'll follow precedent and name his pick sometime the week before the convention.

[milhouse24]

I will always believe Palin was actually a net-positive.

According to exit polling, she was. http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/78407/did-palin-hurt-mccain Of the 60% of 2008 voters who said Palin was a factor in their vote, 56% voted for McCain-Palin, just 43% for Obama-Biden. So yeah, those numbers indicate that despite the media narrative, she may have been a net positive for the ticket. Sure, McCain lost by a fair margin (7 pts), but who's to say he wouldn't have lost by 8 or 9 points, or more, in the event Palin hadn't been on the ticket? That Democratic turnout edge of 7% could have become 8, 9, or 10% without her.

I think Palin helped a little bit, but most VP should help solidify support.  But I'm sure a lot of people who may have been unsure of Obama, became more confident in him with Biden instead of McCain with Palin, even though they won't acknowledge it.  The fact that she was a woman, just improved the enthusiasm factor, and she is young/good-looking photogenic, and is a good stump speaker helps. 

But if McCain picked TPaw, he might have been more competitive in the MidWest and MidAtlantic.  VP Romney may have helped in the rockies. 

McCain went for media pizzaz instead of campaigning on competence.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Which makes sense, because Obama was surely gonna win on that same media pizzazz if he was left unchallenged on that front. Turns out he did anyway, but at least Johnny tried.

[milhouse24]

Which makes sense, because Obama was surely gonna win on that same media pizzazz if he was left unchallenged on that front. Turns out he did anyway, but at least Johnny tried.

Even if Sarah were somewhat competent, the swing states never went to McCain.  Did polling ever show McCain ahead in the swing states after the RNC?

Sarah may have been a savvy media pick, but as far as political voting, it never translated into winning swing voters, or female voters.  Just because Sarah is a woman, didn't mean that female voters would rush to McCain and hopes he has a heart attack to elevate Palin.  Politics and GOTV is about shaking hands and building voter relationships, it takes more than one good month to become president or vice president. 

[RogueBeaver]

Jeb continues to be Shermanesque.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0612/77137.html

[RogueBeaver]

Romney might move the announcement up to late July/early August, per Mike Allen.

http://www.politico.com/driving-the-day/

[HagridOfTheDeep]

It's not like Portman would generate much buzz anyway. So I'm mixed on this one.

[Selene]

Ayotte - good selection;

Christie - I love the guy but too Northeastern; Christie needs to finish what he started in NJ;

Daniels - His wife will kill this possibility;

Haley -  Do not believe she helps the ticket in any way;

Jindal - interesting...the Natural Born Issue and his poor speaking style are problems.  His access to a powerful ethnic group and lots of money lend to his pick; Louisiana does nothing
to "balance" the ticket geographically where Romney needs balance;

McDonnell - no opinion;

McMorris Rodgers - no opinion;

Pawlenty - not a bad choice.  Provides some balance. 

Portman - does nothing for me, but he is geographically located quite well for the ticket;

Rubio - great choice by my criteria.  He also has the natural born issue to hurdle;
 
Ryan - love the man, but his place is in the House.  He is, like I am, a Randian.  Brilliant mind.  Excellent speaker.  His family is his priority and if he becomes the Speaker instead of numb nuts Boehner he will truly help our country.

Thune - OK pick. 

==================
Scott Walker is definitely a possible pick.

More later.

Adam