Turkish snap election, June 2018

[ON Progressive]

What would be causing that drop in enthusiasm among overseas voters?

[ON Progressive]

I can definitely see there being fatigue. This is the fourth major Turkish election in three years (June 2015, November 2015, 2017 referendum, this election), and we have seen voter fatigue over less.

[ON Progressive]

I'm still not too confident because this is Turkey, after all. My expectations are roughly zero when it comes to anything good from Turkish elections.

[ON Progressive]

So the overseas turnout will be higher than 2017 in the end? That's not good news at all.

[ON Progressive]

So the overseas turnout will be higher than 2017 in the end? That's not good news at all.

Nobody knows ... it's always very hard to read anything out of turnout reports. Remember when the high turnout was supposed to help Hillary ?

But we know the overseas vote is more pro-Erdogan than the in-country vote.

Granted, there is one poll of German Turkish voters that has Erdogan under 50, which would be big if true considering those same voters were 63% yes in the referendum.

[ON Progressive]

What time in Turkey do the polls close, so I know when to wake up to watch results roll in?

[ON Progressive]

It's been nearly an hour and still no results...

[ON Progressive]

It's been nearly an hour and still no results...

No, polls only close in 7 minutes.

And then there's an embargo for results for another 4 hours.

Oh, my mistake. I thought polls closed at 9 AM Eastern, not 10. Also, why is there a 4 hour embargo?

[ON Progressive]

Also, why is there a 4 hour embargo?

Not sure why there's a 4-hour embargo until the results from the Turkish election commission are forwarded to the media ...

In Venezuela, they do it because they need to fake the results in favour of the government party in these hours, if they do not like the results that are sent to them from the precincts.

Considering this is Erdogan, I wouldn't be surprised if the same thing happened in Turkey.

[ON Progressive]

The count tends to have an early bias toward Erdogan/AKP.  So when earlier results comes out and Erdogan/AKP does not have large lead then they are in clear trouble.

I assume this is because rural areas come in first.

[ON Progressive]

Is there any chance of the Nation Alliance ever joining a coalition with the HDP for an anti-Erdogan majority, or no? I'm thinking no, considering nobody would work with the HDP in June 2015.

[ON Progressive]

This picture is making its rounds on twitter.  Shows ballots for HDP thrown in the garbage ..

Disgusting but not surprising.

[ON Progressive]

Found on twitter

İl: AMASYA
Açılan sandık: % 21

RT ERDOĞAN % 54.1
M İNCE 17.2
M AKŞENER 18.7
S DEMİRTAŞ 0.1
T KARAMOLLAOĞLU 7.5
D PERİNÇEK 2.4

MİLLETVEKİLİ

AK PARTİ 44.6
CHP 17.2
MHP 12.6
 İP 13.7
HDP 0.1
SP 11.2
Diğer 0.6

-----------

Back in Nov 2015 AMASYA went went 51.66% for AKP.  If so here AKP+MHP is beating AKP of Nov 2015... good sign for  Erdogan/AKP

Did you listen when we said the early results are favorable to Erdogan? This is both true nationally and provincially, with the later numbers being more opposition friendly. If anything its a problem for Erdogan that he is not further ahead in the early numbers here.

Yeah, I remember Istanbul was initially Yes on the 2017 referendum then later results made it no.

[ON Progressive]

I'm not gonna buy that Hakkari and Sirnak are going AKP.

[ON Progressive]

I see we're doing the classic atlas practice of panicking from early returns/turnout for this election too

It's raining in Izmir!

It's also raining in NoVan.

[ON Progressive]

This map here

http://secim2018.trthaber.com

has precincts counted by province.

What's worrying is that Erdogan is clearly ahead even in Istanbul and Ankara at this point. And there's also 25% counted already.

If this holds up, he might remain above 50% ...

Istanbul's initial results showed the referendum passing there but it ended up voting no (not by enough though).

[ON Progressive]

On the plus side, AKP are now below 50% in the parliamentary election, and HDP are climbing towards the threshold

And that's with a ton of ballot boxes out in the HDP districts (only 14% of boxes opened in Van, 15% in Hakkari)