Which of the Following Southern Chambers are Democrats Most Likely to Take?

[Indy Texas]

Probably one of the NC chambers.

In Texas, I'd expect the Democrats to pick up 4-6 seats in the House and 1-2 in the Senate in 2020. And they will most likely end up losing seats in 2022 once the Republicans shore themselves back up in redistricting. So it will probably be in the late 2020s before the map has gotten stale enough to allow the Democrats a chance to pick up a chamber (most likely the House).

[Indy Texas]

Texas House, 100%.

The gerrymander seems to be on the verge of absolute collapse after a string of favorable polls for TX Democrats

It is amazing -it is not long ago when Republicans used to outnumber Democrats by more than 2-to-1 margins in both houses in the Texas legislature during Obama's presidency.  

After the 2008 elections, the Texas House was effectively tied, with 76 Republicans and 74 Democrats.

After the 2010 elections, the Republicans had a supermajority with 101 seats to the Democrats' 49.

How'd they do it? Complete collapse of the remaining ancestral Democratic vote in rural Texas, anemic Hispanic turnout in South Texas, and clawing back some of the suburban seats the Democrats had picked up in 2006 and 2008.

[Indy Texas]

Texas House, 100%.

The gerrymander seems to be on the verge of absolute collapse after a string of favorable polls for TX Democrats

Hopefully that means a US Congressional seat redistricting is coming soon, so we can finally be rid of the Pirate and his ridiculous district.

We won't be rid of him, but his district will probably get less ridiculous. Just give him northeastern Harris County, maybe even the northwestern portion that's absurdly in Michael McCaul's Austin-based district now.

Of course, he will likely end up drawn out of his own district since he lives in the Democratic portion that's inside the Beltway. It doesn't make a difference in terms of his eligibility to run, but it's rather amusing that he gets elected on the backs of exurban fundamentalists but doesn't want to live amongst them.