NV-Monmouth: Clinton +4

[Likely Voter]

In the last 3 cycles pollsters have got Nevada wrong more than any other state, averaging 4-6 points over-estimating the Rs.  This is probably due to Latinos and high turnover of population.  Nevada is both a top 5 growth state and top 5 Latino population state. 
 
Certainly any pollster doing Nevada should have Spanish as an option.

[Likely Voter]

In the last 3 cycles pollsters have got Nevada wrong more than any other state, averaging 4-6 points over-estimating the Rs.

You realize that Republican candidates in Nevada in 2014 outperformed the polls by a lot, right?

obviously i was talking about presidential cycles. Everyone knows turnout for presidential cycles is completely different. Certainly pollsters should model midterms differently than presidential years. So it is a moot point.