Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Hnv1]

99.9% counted. Meretz has 6 seats. The president will hold his meetings with the different parties on Monday, April 5th after the bank holiday (and after everyone talked to everyone before).

I think Lapid needs to court JL and Raam to get the mandate just so YA gets the house committee and they can start to move against the speaker and then Bibi

[Hnv1]

My attempt at an interactive map of this week's Israel results by locality:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/2-uncategorized/88-israel-24th-knesset-election-2021-interactive-map

What's it going to take to break the stalemate?

a military coup followed by a constitutional convention

[Hnv1]

It seems Ra'am will not be on board to change the Basic Law, so unless Yamina will somehow be swayed we're on the fast track to the fifth cycle. That is unless someone wakes up and use the presidential option I espouse.

Timeline:
March 31 - confirmation of the results (Article 11 Basic Law: The Knesset)
April 5th - the President will hold a consultation with all factions in the house
April 7th - the President will have to give the mandate to try and form a government to someone. per the custom whoever has at least 61 recommendations will get the mandate automatically, otherwise, the president has a wider discretion considering the number of recommendations and likelihood to form a government. (Article 7 Basic Law: The Government).
May 5th - the initial 28 days for government formation ends, the president can extend that period by an additional 14 days ((Article 8 Basic Law: The Government), the president can decline to grant the extension as was the case with Gantz in 2020. If no government is formed in that time then the president has three days to decide on one of the following courses of action (Article 9 Basic Law: The Government):
- give the mandate to a different candidate who now has 28 days with no extension
- announce to the speaker of the house that he sees no route for the formation of a government and move directly to phase III (as was the case in 2020).

Phase III: if the second candidate fails to form a government or the president announces he sees no option for such a scenario then the decision moves to the Knesset for 21 days in which anyone who manages to get 61 signatures will be given the mandate. The president will grant him the mandate in 2 days and then that candidate has 14 days to try and form a government. that candidate could be one of those who failed to form a government in earlier phases. (Article 10 Basic Law: The Government). If the time lapses then we have another election after 90 days.

Simultaneously:
Anytime between 24.4 to 24.6 the Knesset must elect a new president. The speaker must announce the date of the election three weeks in advance, meaning any time between 3.4 to 3.6. (Article 5 Basic Law: The President). Any candidate must get the signatures of 10 MKs.

The new Knesset will meet for the first time on April 6th.
 

[Hnv1]

What's it going to take to break the stalemate?

A 5th election.

It's not clear a 5th election just wouldn't end up with the same result. What breaks the logjam? Bibi resigning as Likud head? I don't think that's likely.

Well, Gantz will assume office as full PM in November. This at least makes the likelihood of a sixth cycle unlikely as Bibi would be very much unwilling to go to the public without the aura of office.

In Israel the PM residence is more than just a domestic environment, it's the source of imagined\real power. Hence, why I think Bibi will rather tear down the entire system than sit and let Gantz take charge and put him out of Balfour St. The current Likud has a certain anarchist element to it, one that the Haredi won't mind backing. These people truly hate the State of Israel and would be delighted to see it replaced with a constitutional entity in their mold.
Though I think that they might overestimate the zeal of their electorate. The vote for Likud is down in all the strongholds and I doubt many would risk any harm for him. Israel won't have a January 7 moment.

[Hnv1]

Idk what data he used but some of it is indeed odd- for example, the Likud voters for Gantz.

I would take his model with a huge grain of salt. The number of precincts changed and double envelopes grew by 50%. There’s no way a fifth of YB were non voters, he just uses it to even up numbers

[Hnv1]

Every left pundit under the sun is suggesting imaginary coalitions. From Benny Begin as caretaker PM, to a gang of four.

I really wish they would realize a fifth cycle is imminent instead of wasting futile efforts on this nonsense

[Hnv1]

Bibi isn’t trying to form a government. It’s a sham, he doesn’t want to be in the mercy of Bennett. He’s trying to make Ra’am up their demands so high so no one else could agree to give them what they want.

As I predicted two years ago, the presidential election is where the focus will be now. The fifth cycle is looking grim to him atm, he’ll try going in with more mustard.

[Hnv1]

Bibi isn’t trying to form a government. It’s a sham, he doesn’t want to be in the mercy of Bennett. He’s trying to make Ra’am up their demands so high so no one else could agree to give them what they want.

As I predicted two years ago, the presidential election is where the focus will be now. The fifth cycle is looking grim to him atm, he’ll try going in with more mustard.

According to Akiva Novik, there might be a loophole in the law that allows the Speaker to get all of the President's roles and responsibilities if he doesn't hold an election before the final possible date. This could really get explosive if Levin tries that. What do you think?

That's crackpot commentary by Novik and the rest. The Basic Law is crystal clear:

5. Date of election:   
The election of the President of the State shall be held not earlier than ninety days and not later than thirty days before the expiration of the period of tenure of the President in office. If the place of the President of the State falls vacant before the expiration of his period of tenure, the election shall be held within forty-five days from the day on which such place falls vacant. The Chairman of the Knesset, in consultation with the Vice-Chairmen, shall fix the day of the election and shall notify it to all the members of the Knesset in writing at least three weeks in advance. If the day of the election does not fall in one of the session terms of the Knesset, the Chairman of the Knesset shall convene the Knesset for the election of the President of the State.

The Speaker has no discretion to simply not hold a vote. The apparent problem of consulting with the Vice-Chairmen that are non-existent is not a problem as the consultation isn't a necessary requirement for the vote, if there are no Vice-Chairmen then he should simply set the date within the time frame himself. Refusing to set an election date, and then refusing the swift SC writ to hold the vote is not a loophole. They're a coup d'etat. If Levine wants to go down this route I wouldn't treat him as caretaker President, I will have him arrested.

[Hnv1]

Bibi isn’t trying to form a government. It’s a sham, he doesn’t want to be in the mercy of Bennett. He’s trying to make Ra’am up their demands so high so no one else could agree to give them what they want.

As I predicted two years ago, the presidential election is where the focus will be now. The fifth cycle is looking grim to him atm, he’ll try going in with more mustard.

According to Akiva Novik, there might be a loophole in the law that allows the Speaker to get all of the President's roles and responsibilities if he doesn't hold an election before the final possible date. This could really get explosive if Levin tries that. What do you think?

Doesn't the new Knesset get to elect a new Speaker? The 2020 Knesset elected Gantz at the start of the term, for instance. The coalition that elected Gantz as Speaker a year ago still has a majority...

The Basic Law is vaguer here, the Speaker of the existing Knesset continues in his role until a new one is elected, the new one can be elected at the latest before the swearing of a new government. Edelstein was an interim speaker for two Knessets. When there was a majority to oust him of 61 MKs and he refused to hold the vote the SC issued a writ which he refused to comply with leading to a little crisis, Gantz was picked as Speaker as Bibi threatened to pull the plug on the rotation negotiations if someone from YA was elected.

Levine at the time called on Edelstein to refuse even to resign and called for the Courts Police to come to Knesset (basically as usual for that total nutjob calling for a civil war). It seems he would do the same now if they would try to replace him, though I'm not sure there are 61 MKs for voting him out atm so the SC might not intervene.

[Hnv1]

Bibi isn’t trying to form a government. It’s a sham, he doesn’t want to be in the mercy of Bennett. He’s trying to make Ra’am up their demands so high so no one else could agree to give them what they want.

As I predicted two years ago, the presidential election is where the focus will be now. The fifth cycle is looking grim to him atm, he’ll try going in with more mustard.

According to Akiva Novik, there might be a loophole in the law that allows the Speaker to get all of the President's roles and responsibilities if he doesn't hold an election before the final possible date. This could really get explosive if Levin tries that. What do you think?

Doesn't the new Knesset get to elect a new Speaker? The 2020 Knesset elected Gantz at the start of the term, for instance. The coalition that elected Gantz as Speaker a year ago still has a majority...

The Basic Law is vaguer here, the Speaker of the existing Knesset continues in his role until a new one is elected, the new one can be elected at the latest before the swearing of a new government. Edelstein was an interim speaker for two Knessets. When there was a majority to oust him of 61 MKs and he refused to hold the vote the SC issued a writ which he refused to comply with leading to a little crisis, Gantz was picked as Speaker as Bibi threatened to pull the plug on the rotation negotiations if someone from YA was elected.

Levine at the time called on Edelstein to refuse even to resign and called for the Courts Police to come to Knesset (basically as usual for that total nutjob calling for a civil war). It seems he would do the same now if they would try to replace him, though I'm not sure there are 61 MKs for voting him out atm so the SC might not intervene.

Yeah, until Ra'am or Yamina join the anti-Bibi side there's no majority for ousting Levin.

Ra'am are not going to join the anti-Levine coalition. They have good working relationship with him and they know that if they do that then their negotiations with the right (however phony) will be over. Bibi has all his eyes on the speaker's position atm.
Now as there is no majority of the house that wants a vote, unlike last year where 61 MKs demanded in writing a vote be held, I'm not sure the SC will intervene. If Yamina joins this move it will be very much later on towards June, as like Ra'am removing Levine will end negotiations with Likud.

[Hnv1]

The president flat out says he sees no way of forming a government, alas he has to give to mandate to someone at least once. He did hint he'll use value judgments in the process.

Akonis (Likud) told him no single-digit party leader got the mandate, that is false. Rozen got the mandate in 1951 with 4 seats, granted with a different basic law where the person with mandate didn't have to lead the government.

[Hnv1]

I feel a massive upset in the cards for everyone. Fits the rag-president we have with his corrupt history.

[Hnv1]

I feel a massive upset in the cards for everyone. Fits the rag-president we have with his corrupt history.

What do you mean?

In what part? The first, well I feel he might not give the mandate to either Bibi or Lapid, something unexpected. Or give it to Bibi with a soft condemnation.

As to the second, you can research his purgery in the Deri'i trial or his relations to David Appel

[Hnv1]

Yamina recommends Bennett. so no one has 61. Bibi will be with 52, Lapid with 45, Bennet with 13, and all Arab MKs recommend no one

[Hnv1]

Tibi and Ta'al might recommend Lapid- if Sa'ar recommends him. In that case, he'll get more recommendations than Netanyahu. It's all up to Sa'ar.

That would indeed save everyone including Rivlin a massive headache. Also pose a problem to Likud as they claimed they should get it on account of more recommendations and the biggest party.

[Hnv1]

Well this is a pickle. Lapid went on live air telling Bennett he agrees to a rotation where he’s second in order. Bennett has 24 hours to decide his future. If they don’t agree until Thursday I think Rivlin will grudgingly give it to Bibi and that’s 5th elections.

[Hnv1]

Rivlin declined New Hope's proposal that he broker a power-sharing agreement between Yesh Atid and Yamina chiefs, Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett, calling such a move “political intervention.”

He should take note from Herzog who had Peres and Shamir in for 10 hours until they agreed on a government. Navon who threatened to resign if the Sabre and Shatila massacre wouldn’t be investigated. And Shazar who pushed for Ben Gurion to be ousted behind the scenes.

The president is a political figure with a constitutional role. Grow up Rivlin

*if I recall correctly Herzog also refused to invite Khana to consultation in 1984

[Hnv1]

Netanyahu got the mandate, thanks to pathetic Sa'ar.

Bennett just ended his PM aspirations. You don’t say no when you have the opportunity or you’ll never get it again. He can ask Sylvan Shalom, Ezer Weitzman, Pinhas Sapir and others who waited.

Anyhow Sa’ar certainly erred. But the blame here is on Rivlin. I never liked him, but the past two years showed what an incompetent and worthless politician he is. His position is 99.5% ceremonial, but at the 0.5% where his head of state role is the pure sovereign politics he failed totally.

[Hnv1]

Bennett is having successive meetings with Bibi (even invited to Balfour street!) and they will have the negotiation teams meet up starting next week. Can’t see it happening as long as Smotric remains unwilling to accept Ra’am supported government, but Bibi is desperate to get rid of the rotation government.

I really can’t see the Lapid-Bennett government taking shape, sorry to disappoint everyone.

Presidential elections starting to speed up. Current declared candidates: former Rafi/Labour MK Michael Bar Zohar; former Labour minister, and my former teacher, Prof. Shimon Sheetreet (massive tosser); Amir Peretz. Herzog is rumoured to be in with no official statement yet. No one from the right put forward yet beside weirdo Yehuda Glick.

The campaign is on going. No, not that one. Future PMs in their own mind Chief of Mossad Yossi Cohen, and Chief of the GS Lt. Gen. Kochavi having a covert media war.

[Hnv1]

Bennett is having successive meetings with Bibi (even invited to Balfour street!) and they will the negotiation teams meet up starting next week. Can’t see it happening as long as Smotric remains unwilling to accept Ra’am supported government, but Bibi us desperate to get rid of the rotation government.

I really can’t see the Lapid-Bennett government taking shape, sorry to disappoint everyone.

Presidential elections starting to speed up. Current declared candidates: former Rafi/Labour MK Michael Bar Zohar; former Labour minister, and my former teacher, Prof. Shimon Sheetreet (massive tosser); Amir Peretz. Herzog is rumoured to be in with no official statement yet. No one from the right put forward yet beside weirdo Yehuda Glick.

The campaign is on going. No, not that one. Future PMs in their own mind Chief of Mossad Yossi Cohen, and Chief of the GS Lt. Gen. Kochavi having a covert media war.

Elham Khazen (Arab woman who’s a member of B&W and ran on Labour’s list previously) is running according to wikipedia as well.

Doubt she’ll get the signatures needed.

If I were the anti Bibi bloc I’d use the nuclear option. But they are too cowardly

[Hnv1]

...

So, that's it?

What is?

[Hnv1]

Likud are spinning a bill to have a direct election for PM. Clear spin as there is no Justice minister so no constitutional legislation, and as it is retro-prospective it's unconstitutional. They're basically trying to nip the Lapid-Bennett government in the bud knowing Bibi's chances are over.

Some signs of stress earlier from Bibi as he called the front bench of Likud for a meeting (possibly to quell a mutiny) but it was later canceled.

Bibi is definitely on edge. Attending UTJ caucus meeting today. Losing the vote on the house committee shook him. I think he thinks it’s likely a Lapid-Bennett axis will happen and UTJ are the weak link in his bloc

[Hnv1]

I think some back room deals were made. Likud people are saying they’re heading to the opposition. That’s interesting as it’s been over a decade since they uttered something like that.

I believe losing the vote today and Smotric not moving means the Lapid-Bennett government is now an actual possibility in less than 20 days

[Hnv1]

A pretty grand trick by Lapid and Sa'ar. Likud made a deal with Yamina and thought they won the vote for the Knesset Committee because Ra'am will abstain, but following a meeting with Lapid Ra'am came in last moment to oppose the Likud suggestion and support Lapid's (with Yamina supporting the former and abstaining from the latter).

Lapid has certainly been proving himself.

Pretty sure it was Saar who was the mastermind behind it. He sent Bennett to appease Bibi and meanwhile is working on the rotation government backstage.

I'd still wait. I'm not sure Shaked is fully on board with Bennett yet. She would need to get some big ministry and I'm not sure Lapid and the rest would agree to her in Justice

[Hnv1]

Bibi is definitely on edge. Attending UTJ caucus meeting today. Losing the vote on the house committee shook him. I think he thinks it’s likely a Lapid-Bennett axis will happen and UTJ are the weak link in his bloc

What does UTJ (or Degel HaTorah I guess) get out of a Lapid-Bennett government? Bennett is presumably acceptable to them, but Lapid is quite anti-clerical. I assume one or both parties had to make some compromises?

Well firstly there's an anti-Bibi sentiment spreading within UTJ and he wants to crush that.

Whether they're in or out they can count on Sa'ar and Bennett to somehow look out for their interests from within through entertaining the possibility of joining their government. Shas are so entwined with Bibi and Likud they're basically one big party now (they even de facto operate like that in some municipalities).

UTJ unlike Shas are a scion of hundreds of years of traditions they must preserve, if it's clear Bibi is Kaput they will be the first to leave him.

Also, Lapid has been trying to lower the flames with the Haredi for a while, it might be easier with UTJ on account of them being only Haredi and not Haredi and Sephardi like Shas.