Okay, I'll bite on this.
I'll give you this. Bush certainly takes the Hispanic vote seriously, and definitely cares about their culture and values. If he wins the GOP nomination without flip flopping to the extent of Romney or McCain, it will certainly be a testament to the GOP's desire to move past it's xenophobic tendencies. However, Bush has been inconsistent on the guarantee of path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, while Obama and Hillary are doing whatever possible to guarantee this right. Bush will likely gain votes lost in 2008 and in 2012 by Republican xenophobia, but it won't be enough.
This doesn't even mention the fact that both Romney and McCain were in serious danger of losing the nomination due to a perception that they were for amnesty, and I expect it to be no different for Bush. The popularity of Trump right now proves that. Bush's strength here is a weakness in the primary. Moreover, the national media will give him no room to pivot on the issue, since it's Bush's calling card towards an expanded Republican electorate.
This is tenuous at best. Polls in July before any real debates are virtually meaningless in a close race. Whereas Clinton has shown remarkable stability in keeping the support of a majority of the Democratic electorate (which is likely to grow once Biden is out) for the better part of a year, Bush and other Republican rivals have bounced around constantly since the media began paying attention to the race.
Dramatic swings are very real possibilities in primary elections as well. Obama supposedly had New Hampshire locked up before Hillary swept it from under his feet. Romney was inevitably winning in both Iowa and South Carolina, until Santorum and Gingrich came out of nowhere to beat him.
What is clear right now is that Bush has not opened up a lead, his unfavorable ratings among Republicans are way too high for a frontrunner to feel comfortable, few endorsements, and he has multiple credible challengers with money to sustain themselves. Sure, Bush has outraised them all so far, but we've seen time and time again that while money sure is helpful, it doesn't decisively decide races as much as candidates think it should.
Of course they are. They're running in a Republican primary election for Christ's sake. I don't see why this helps Bush at all.
Of course she is. The Democratic Party shifted to the left during Obama's presidency. Obama, like or not, hasn't shed voters because of this and has more or less retained his coalition. Hillary has seen the success of the Obama coalition and knows she needs it to be elected. This is the part that drives conservatives like you crazy: the country is mostly fine with it. Most of the country accepts that wages are a problem, that same sex marriage is totally fine, that climate change is a serious problem, and they more or less don't want more conflict in the world. Whenever liberals have made a steadfast defense of these policies, they've won. Whenever they do a terrible job of supporting it, they get creamed like in 2014.
I first want to discredit your comparison to HW Bush, who lost because he alienated his base by breaking his "read my lips, no new taxes"promise, and by being seen by the country as aloof at best towards their problems, and uncaring at worst. By the time W Bush ran, it was generally agreed that there was no need to raise taxes, so it wasn't even an issue. W Bush also aggressively made sure he connected with the average voter, and made up for his moderate economic message by making his "family values" evangelism a central part to his campaign. He successfully differentiated himself from his father, who by the way, was not nearly as divisive of a president and was regarded as a moderately successful president.
There is no way to differentiate Jeb with W Bush in this primary. W Bush massively cut taxes and added new governmental programs. W Bush (unsuccessfully) tried to pass immigration reform. W Bush started two wars and alienated allies by belligerence to other countries that disagreed with American interests. There is literally no discernible difference between Jeb and George on policy. Sure, Jeb might sound a bit smarter than George, but even if independent voters have forgotten, the vast, vast majority of the Democratic base bitterly remembers not only the disastrous events of the Bush years, but the way that Bush was elected in the first place. A Jeb candidacy will not only increase Democratic turnout for Hillary, but also actively discourage any liberal third party candidacy. Hell, this is already happening considering Sanders is running as a Democrat even though he has never been a Democrat in his life.
I'm sorry to burst your bubble, but Bush isn't going to beat Hillary unless the economy and/or international affairs trend downwards significantly. If I were a Republican, I'd choose Rubio, Walker and Kasich before I'd even start to seriously consider Bush as my nominee.
