How This Candidate Won

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Here is the idea: Pick a Republican who has a chance of running (whether he has a chance of winning is up to you). The person after you will then have to make a scenario in which they win first the primary and then the general election (maps must be provided for the general), and follow it up with their own candidate's scenario. You can repeat candidates if you want so long as the way in which they win is a bit different. Also, provide information on the state of the world to make things more interesting if you want (otherwise, the person making the scenario can improvise)

So, first scenario: How Romney beats Obama with unemployment at around 9.5%, moderately high gas prices, and around 45% approval.

[Yelnoc]

Romney 285
Obama 253

Obama vs. Pawlenty vs. Trump.  Obama wins, unemployment is around 8.5%, gas is at around $3.20 a gallon, and his approval ratings are around 46%.

[pbrower2a]

Romney 285
Obama 253

Obama vs. Pawlenty vs. Trump.  Obama wins, unemployment is around 8.5%, gas is at around $3.20 a gallon, and his approval ratings are around 46%.

The economy had a double-dip recession for which President Obama got the fault. President Obama got the offer to cap income taxes for corporations and the super-rich from the Republican majority (basically, nobody pays more than $1 million in personal income taxes) and a nationwide Right to Work law with the abolition of the minimum-wage law, and threw it away. He thought that he could get away with it, but groups that backed right-wing politicians in 2010 lavished support for every Republican. The Hispanic vote in Colorado, Florida, and Nevada is closer to going with a 50-50 split because when it comes to economics, 'Half a loaf is better than none'.

President Obama tried to improvise a populist campaign against what he considered a pointless and unwise proposal, but money shouted. Not only did President Obama lose, but the Republicans  basically undid the 2006 gains of the   Democrats in the Senate. The Republicans actually made a net gain in the House.

It would have looked worse for President Obama had it not been for Donald Trump. Without the Trump vote, President Obama would have lost Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and perhaps Minnesota. The only power that the Democrats have is the filibuster.

[Yelnoc]

Sorry, the map was for Bourbondem's scenario.  Mine was separate, so that you could post a map of Obama winning in that scenario.

[pbrower2a]

Palin     297
Obama 263

Unemployment is 8.4%, the price of gasoline is $3.80 a gallon, and terrorism has all but died as a threat to the US and its citizens.

How is this result possible?

[courts]

1) The unemployment rate technically goes down, but that's because the US government continues to game the statistics to include less people through seasonal adjustment and no longer counting the jobless after a certain amount of time. The real rate is substantially higher than reported, to the point that people stop taking the government seriously.

2) Europe experiences more dramatic economic problems, resulting in a short term move towards the dollar. Commodities in the US stabilize somewhat, despite some arguing that debt deflation is now an inevitability.

3) Palin continues to move away from Bush era foreign policy and some of her previous statements as usual.

4) Crime becomes more of a problem sparking more of a backlash among white voters.

5) Turn out is generally low, and that combined with the above results in the white vote being proportionally larger than usual.

6. Palin winds up winning substantially as a result of all the above factors plus general cynicism over the media's perceived cosiness with Obama, with the perception being anyone so unpopular can't be that bad.

Ron Paul vs Barack Obama.

[tpfkaw]

1. Federal Reserve policy results in 30-40% inflation.

2. World trade and investment grinds to a halt as American purchasing power goes down the drain and the US stock market crashes as everyone races to dump dollar-denominated assets.

3. As a result, major double dip recession with official unemployment numbers exceeding 20%.

4. Paul's message, having been proven correct, finally begins to resonate with voters.

5. Obama, whose personal popularity is hovering around 20% (just blacks and some of the remaining hipsters) launches a hyper-negative campaign against Ron Paul.  It backfires, people think that Obama's trying to trick them and don't buy into it.  As a side effect many people start to buy in to Paul's positions re entitlements, Civil Rights Act, foreign policy towards Israel etc.

6. Paul wins a landslide victory on election day, about 57-40, while winning well over 70% of the white vote.  Obama is only saved in states with substantial urban machines (VT and ME-01 really should be blue on that map...)

7.  Democrats are crushed in the midterms receving only 38% of the vote but actually gain 6 seats, mainly because the Libertarian Party gets 14% and the Constitution Party gets 5%.  Libertarian Party elects 9 representatives and a senator from Indiana, Constitution Party elects 3 representatives, one from Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming.

George Wallace wins:

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

1. Federal Reserve policy results in 30-40% inflation.

2. World trade and investment grinds to a halt as American purchasing power goes down the drain and the US stock market crashes as everyone races to dump dollar-denominated assets.

3. As a result, major double dip recession with official unemployment numbers exceeding 20%.

4. Paul's message, having been proven correct, finally begins to resonate with voters.

5. Obama, whose personal popularity is hovering around 20% (just blacks and some of the remaining hipsters) launches a hyper-negative campaign against Ron Paul.  It backfires, people think that Obama's trying to trick them and don't buy into it.  As a side effect many people start to buy in to Paul's positions re entitlements, Civil Rights Act, foreign policy towards Israel etc.

6. Paul wins a landslide victory on election day, about 57-40, while winning well over 70% of the white vote.  Obama is only saved in states with substantial urban machines (VT and ME-01 really should be blue on that map...)

7.  Democrats are crushed in the midterms receving only 38% of the vote but actually gain 6 seats, mainly because the Libertarian Party gets 14% and the Constitution Party gets 5%.  Libertarian Party elects 9 representatives and a senator from Indiana, Constitution Party elects 3 representatives, one from Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming.

George Wallace wins:

Indiana would also likely elect a Constuition Party or Libertarian Party rep or three. The senator  would have to be a Socially Conservative Libertarian. Most likely a Paulite

[Yelnoc]

I'm pretty sure this is for 2012 scenarios...

[NHI]

How does this happen? Romney vs. Obama

R: 455
D:  83

[Yelnoc]

Greece pulls out of the EU, sparking a double-dip recession and unemployment back up to 11%.  Gas prices hit $7.00 when revolution breaks out in Saudi Arabia.  Gaddhafi triumphs against the rebels and coalition forces which Obama stopped supporting for fear of stepping on people's toes.  al-Zawahiri, the new head of Al-Qaeda successfully carries out a successful terrorist attack on American soil.  Obama's approval ratings are in the 30's on election day.