Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Person Man]

Tge hurricane bounce he may habe gotten seems to simply be that fewer people care..

Or that he's just so hated that it's extremely difficult for him to win any hearts outside of his (shrinking) base.

How America feels about Trump
http://www.politico.com/interactives/2017/politico-morning-consult-poll/?lo=ap_e1

So, this one shows the only difference is that more people have an opinion about him.

[Matty]

Gallup

55
39 (+1)

[BudgieForce]

No news is good news for the Trump administration. Although I'm sure his UN speech or the revived healthcare push wont do him any favors.

[Matty]

Marist

41 (+4)
50 (-5)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist

41 (+4)
50 (-5)

When was the previous poll that it's comparing to?

[Matty]

Marist

41 (+4)
50 (-5)

When was the previous poll that it's comparing to?

early august

[BudgieForce]

Marist

41 (+4)
50 (-5)

Actually its...

41(+3)
50(-1)

https://apps.npr.org/documents/document.html?id=3933461-NPR-PBS-NewsHour-Marist-Poll-Aug-17-2017

Goes from huge bump to MoE.

[Matty]

Thanks for the heads up. I stand corrected.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, Sep 14-18, 900 adults (change from August)

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 52 (-3)

[pbrower2a]

Getting closer. At this point, I could see Trump winning an election.

[BudgieForce]

NBC/WSJ, Sep 14-18, 900 adults (change from August)

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 52 (-3)

All Trump has to do is shut up and he can salvage this presidency.

[Dr. Arch]

NBC/WSJ, Sep 14-18, 900 adults (change from August)

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 52 (-3)

All Trump has to do is shut up and he can salvage this presidency.

Don't worry. The healthcare disaster is right around the corner already.

[kyc0705]

NBC/WSJ, Sep 14-18, 900 adults (change from August)

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 52 (-3)

All Trump has to do is shut up and he can salvage this presidency.

In other words, he can’t salvage this presidency.

[mijan]

Trump will be back to mid 30 at the end of this month.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (September 20th)

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 56% (+1)

[pbrower2a]

NBC/WSJ, Sep 14-18, 900 adults (change from August)

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 52 (-3)

All Trump has to do is shut up and he can salvage this presidency.

... with this sort of approval he could theoretically win re-election with a spirited campaign (I expect that!) and no big blunders.   

But that is asking for a lot.

[Person Man]

NBC/WSJ, Sep 14-18, 900 adults (change from August)

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 52 (-3)

All Trump has to do is shut up and he can salvage this presidency.

... with this sort of approval he could theoretically win re-election with a spirited campaign (I expect that!) and no big blunders.   

But that is asking for a lot.

He would pretty much win what he did plus NH and MN and maybe lose MI. He would probably narrowly win the PV (by less than a million)  yet I still think he does poorly in VA and CO, but comes very close in NV and carries WI, PA, and FL by like 3 or 4 and OH and IA by like 6-8. Maybe GA and AZ by between those spreads.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

^^^
He wouldn't win New Hampshire after calling it a drug infested den.

[Dr. Arch]

^^^
He wouldn't win New Hampshire after calling it a drug infested den.

Yeah, he pretty much threw out NH. His disapproval ratings there are en par with those in titanium D states.

[Phony Moderate]

Because we live in such odd times, I'm going to predict that one of the following two will happen: 1. Trump will have a low 40s approval rating on election day 2020 and win, or 2. Trump will have a low 50s approval rating on election day 2020 and lose.

[pbrower2a]

The general pattern is that one takes the approval that one has at the start of the campaign season (typically the first caucus or primary) and add seven in the assumption that any incumbent elected the first time (the pattern does not hold for appointed pols who have never shown that they could stage an effective campaign for the office), and you get a rough estimate of the vote share the incumbent Governor or Senator will get when running against the average challenger who typically has yet to show that he can win. It works about as well for Senators and Governors in states despite the difference in their offices... and for incumbent Presidents winning states.

This applied reasonably well for predicting whether Carter (who had all sorts of trouble), Reagan. the elder Bush, Clinton, Dubya, and Obama would win re-election. This system showed that Carter and the elder Bush really had no chance (if for very different reasons) -- and that Mondale, Dole, Kerry, and Romney had no real chance.

Of those who lost, Romney may have run the strongest of campaigns. But he faced Barack Obama, who could get something like a 5%  gain from approval to vote share. I am tempted to believe that had Romney been the Republican nominee in 2016 he would have won a landslide, picking off everything that Trump won... and Colorado, Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire,,, and who knows what else. Romney did as well as anyone ever did against someone not a political cripple. But Obama typically had approval ratings in the high 40s late in January 2012, which was good enough for a close win of re-election.

It is two and a half years before the 2020 Presidential campaign really starts, so it is pointless to predict where the approval of the President will be then. But so far things do not look so good. I look at the polling figures for Reagan, Obama, and Trump, and I see Reagan and Obama tracking very close to each other in Gallup from the May after the election to November two years later, Reagan taking a few lumps and then going ahead of Obama decisively, and then tracking almost identically for the last year-and-a-half of their respective Administrations.

Trump so far is way behind either Obama or Reagan -- or (statistically) Reagan and Obama. One of them is likely your political hero if you are a conservative, and the other is your political hero if you are a liberal.

       

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN, Sep 17-20, 1053 adults (change from Aug 3-6)

Approve 40 (+2) - Strongly 26 (+2)
Disapprove 55 (-1) - Strongly 45 (-2)

[Matty]

Is it true that Obama never dipped below 44% in approval from 2009-2016?

That seems fairly remarkable

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is it true that Obama never dipped below 44% in approval from 2009-2016?

That seems fairly remarkable

No, he dipped as low as 40 on several occasions.  http://news.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

[pbrower2a]

Is it true that Obama never dipped below 44% in approval from 2009-2016?

That seems fairly remarkable

No, he dipped as low as 40 on several occasions.  http://news.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

...most critically in the first week of November 2014, when Republicans made big gains in the Senate that will not be undone until at least 2020.

Now I am not saying that 40% or lower approval for President Trump ensures that the Democrats take back the Senate. Democrats have far too many targets against that the Republicans think that they can win, and too few for winning back a majority that Republicans now hold. The 2018 Senate election is still an echo of the 2006 Democratic wave.

Count on this: the vested interests will put huge amounts of money into the 2018 Senate races. They want America to be a pure plutocracy, and should 2020 be an R disaster, then they will want some cushion. After all, no human suffering is in excess so long as it enriches or pampers the elites or enforces the will of those elites.