2nd wave of YouGov/CBS News/NYT polls out

[Tender Branson]

... in the next hour.

One result has already been leaked:

NC: Tillis 43%, Hagan 41%, 5% Haugh, 10% Undecided (with leaners)

[Tender Branson]

Release page:

http://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/06/nyt-upshot-cbs-news-yougov-battleground-tracker

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[Senator Cris]

http://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/senate-races-battleground-tracker/

Results are in.

[Senator Cris]

I think that the better option is wait the excel file.

[Tender Branson]

I think that the better option is wait the excel file.

[Tender Branson]

YouGov is pretty stubborn in showing a Land-lead ...

[Senator Cris]

[Senator Cris]

The crosstabs are in the YouGov page... so no excel file?

[Tender Branson]

Results:

[Tender Branson]

The NYT chart is actually wrong, they polled Curtis and not Walsh.

[eric82oslo]

Good idea of them to exclude Kansas.

[KCDem]

The weighing in some of these polls is ridiculous. According to YouGov, there are more self-identifying Republicans and Independents in West Virginia than Democrats...LOL

[Senator Cris]

In LA, YouGov has polled the jungle primary?

Cassidy 36%
Landrieu 33%
Maness 10%
Reaux 2%
Clements 2%

Lean Dem (Landrieu) 3%
Lean Rep (Cassidy) 2%

Not Sure 11%

[Tender Branson]

Not having the excel-file this time suxx.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Both Land and Braley ahead? What a strange set of numbers.

[eric82oslo]

The generational gap is pretty extreme in Colorado (more so than in most other states):

18-29: Udall +22%
30-44: Udall +26%
45-64: Gardner +3%
65+: Gardner +25%

Just another proof of where Colorado is headed in the long run.

Also:

White: Gardner +3%
Hispanic: Udall +28%
Other: Udall +19%

Actually, the generational gap in Georgia is even more extreme:

18-29: Nunn +25%
30-44: Nunn +16%
45-64: Perdue +9%
65+: Perdue +38%

That's a whooping 63 percentage points difference between the youngest and the oldest!

[Vosem]

Good idea of them to exclude Kansas.

I believe Taylor dropped out as they were conducting the poll, which would've obviously screwed up the poll. Not gonna blame YouGov for this one.

Both Land and Braley ahead? What a strange set of numbers.

I think the polling consensus has been an exact tie in Iowa and a single-digit lead for Peters in MI. I don't think it's out of the question for a result like this to come about through pure chance.

[eric82oslo]

Good idea of them to exclude Kansas.

I believe Taylor dropped out as they were conducting the poll, which would've obviously screwed up the poll. Not gonna blame YouGov for this one.

I agree. However, weird that only 2% reported intentions to vote for another candidate.

[eric82oslo]

The Texas sample has vastly undersampled women, Hispanics and young voters btw.

In their weighted sample, they have women at 47% (should be 52-53%), Hispanics at 16.5% (not sure where it should be, but certainly higher than this) and young voters (18-29) at only 9% [they made up 20% nationally in 2012 and this group is particularily large in Texas!). So if this poll is more or less correct, there's no way Cornyn will win by 20% once you unskew the sample to fit the actual electorate. More like 15% perhaps.

[IceSpear]

It's dumb enough they have Land ahead with LVs, but among RVs they have it as a tie? LOL

[NHLiberal]

These seem better than last time, the only ones that seem really suspect are Alaska, Michigan, Virginia unless nearly all the undecideds are leaning toward Warner, and North Carolina.

[IceSpear]

These seem better than last time, the only ones that seem really suspect are Alaska, Michigan, Virginia unless nearly all the undecideds are leaning toward Warner, and North Carolina.

How is NC odd? They have R+1, and PPP has D+1. I'd add DE/RI to this, there's no way in hell that Coons/Reed are winning by only 13/20 points. Also, even though Sessions is running unopposed, they have him at an oddly low 54%. #Sessionsunder60 #Tossup #Demwave

[NHLiberal]

These seem better than last time, the only ones that seem really suspect are Alaska, Michigan, Virginia unless nearly all the undecideds are leaning toward Warner, and North Carolina.

How is NC odd? They have R+1, and PPP has D+1. I'd add DE/RI to this, there's no way in hell that Coons/Reed are winning by only 13/20 points. Also, even though Sessions is running unopposed, they have him at an oddly low 54%. #Sessionsunder60 #Tossup #Demwave

Yeah I guess NC isn't that bad; I know it's a super close race of course but I don't think Tillis is up. And good call about DE/RI, I don't really look at the races that are safe, only VA caught my eye. And that's really funny about Alabama...

[Miles]

In LA, YouGov has polled the jungle primary?

Cassidy 36%
Landrieu 33%
Maness 10%
Reaux 2%
Clements 2%

Lean Dem (Landrieu) 3%
Lean Rep (Cassidy) 2%

Not Sure 11%

Yeah, thats what it looks like.

Both Landrieu and Cassidy have floors higher than what they're getting.

Also notice LA, of the competitive races, has one of the smallest sample sizes; its at 900 where the others are around 1500-2100. 

[Free Bird]

Iowa and Michigan instantly discredit this