Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[2016]

Why can't you Democrats just give up? I don't like Cruz but he is going to get reelected. These Pictures are just blowing up smoke by these fanatic Democrats.

[2016]

On Texas

We've seen this Movie before in 2016 with the high Turnout and Hillary still couldn't win the State.

In fact, since Obamas 1st win Democrats desperatly trying to turn Texas Blue and it hasn't materialized. Stop this please.

[2016]

The Democrats are in some profound Trouble in Arizona...

Here are the latest Figures

Overall
R 227,653
D 164,738
I 113,464

510K Votes have been cast in AZ

Maricopa
R 154,773 / D 100,675 / I 73,520

Pima
D 40,874 / R 34,960 / I 21,465

Not sure how Data Orbital comes up with Sinema + 7 lead.

[2016]

The Democrats are in some profound Trouble in Arizona...

Here are the latest Figures

Overall
R 227,653
D 164,738
I 113,464

510K Votes have been cast in AZ

Maricopa
R 154,773 / D 100,675 / I 73,520

Pima
D 40,874 / R 34,960 / I 21,465

Not sure how Data Orbital comes up with Sinema + 7 lead.

Registered Republicans are allowed to vote for Sinema just like they did for Tipirneni in AZ-06. Republicans were up by 20, ended up only winning by 5.

Highly doubtful they will do that in a high stakes Senate Election. All these Polls who are saying McSally gets only 86% of Republicans are crap in my book. I don't buy that.

[2016]

The fact that Heidi is DOA but Heller could survive is disgusting

Not exactly surprising that ND is more Republican than NV is Democratic, but if Washoe holds up, and Clark turnout is high, I'm still confident Heller goes down.

But Dems aren’t running up as big of margin they need to in Clark

If they win Washoe by a healthy margin, a high single-digit margin is probably enough in Clark. Of course, this is all speculation, since we don't know who Indies are voting for, or how much crossover voting there will be.

I wonder how much crossover Vote we'll see in NV especially after Laxalt being accused of sexual assault. I can see a Heller/Sisolak Voter but I can't see a Rosen/Laxalt Voter.

[2016]

Florida update

VBM now 59k republicans and early vote is 5,5k democrats

Total percentage of early vote so far is 42,9 D - 40,77 R. In 2014 it was 42,4 - 39,6 and in 2016 it was 40,7-36,7.

Not a strong showing by Democrats in Florida. With all the Enthusiasm they have + 1st AA Governor Candidate 2 Days in and they lead only 108,366 to 102,899, a Difference of 5,467 Votes in Early In-Person Voting.

In Mail Ballots Republicans lead 520,307 to 461,680, a Difference of 58,627 Votes.

Overall Republicans lead by 53,160 Votes.

And YET Pollsters believe we're getting between a D + 3 to a D + 5 Electorate. Give me a Break!

[2016]

African American voters are 13.3% of active voters in Florida but are 15.5% if the in-person early voting so far. Good news for Gillum.

Democrats cannibalizing AA Vote here I think. Hillary tried to win FL with the Early Vote in 2016, it failed.

[2016]

Regarding Florida...READ THIS

https://thefloridasqueeze.com/2018/10/23/florida-vote-projection-model-day-12-first-two-days-of-early-voting-might-give-democrats-false-hope/

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/shared/M2JX5DDC9

Trotter projects that when all is said and done in FL Early Voting Democrats will lead by 3.05% going into Election Day BUT it could be far less cuz 35 Counties are missing and only 1 voted for Hillary (Osceola).

[2016]

Republicans padding their lead in Arizona...was 62K over Democrats yesterday, now it's 76K

Overall
Republicans 291,509
Democrats 214,656
Independents 147,416

Difference: 76,853

Maricopa
Republicans 199,178
Democrats 133,020
Independents 96,227

Difference: 66,158

Pima
Republicans 43,199
Democrats 51,953
Independents 27,212

Difference: 8,754

Overall 657,148 Votes have been cast in AZ.

[2016]

Republicans padding their lead in Arizona...was 62K over Democrats yesterday, now it's 76K

Overall
Republicans 291,509
Democrats 214,656
Independents 147,416

Difference: 76,853

Maricopa
Republicans 199,178
Democrats 133,020
Independents 96,227

Difference: 66,158

Pima
Republicans 43,199
Democrats 51,953
Independents 27,212

Difference: 8,754

Overall 657,148 Votes have been cast in AZ.

Even though their % lead dropped.

That AZ Guy acting like every GOP Female Voter would vote for Sinema. Highly unlikely.

[2016]

If you look at precinct results in Arizona, either in 2016 or the recent special election, it is pretty clear that Clinton/Tipirmeni obtained majorities among unaffiliated voter and also got a decent sized chunk of GOP registered voters in some suburban areas.

You can't compare a Special Election vs a General Election.

And the big reason Hillary Clinton for starters obtained more Republican Crossover Votes at Precinct Level Results in 2016 is that Maricopa Sheriff Joe Arpaio was on the Ballot and a good chunk of the GOP wanted him out too, not just Democrats. That's the Main Reason AZ was close in the first place.

[2016]

Republicans padding their lead in Arizona...was 62K over Democrats yesterday, now it's 76K

Overall
Republicans 291,509
Democrats 214,656
Independents 147,416

Difference: 76,853

Maricopa
Republicans 199,178
Democrats 133,020
Independents 96,227

Difference: 66,158

Pima
Republicans 43,199
Democrats 51,953
Independents 27,212

Difference: 8,754

Overall 657,148 Votes have been cast in AZ.

The total Independents were around 270,000.  If Republicans are up by 75,000 (not factoring in that Simena is likely to get more Republican votes ... than McSally would get Dems)

....Then to make up that 75k, Dems need 63% of Independents.

What % of Independants to Dems typically get?

Democrats will not get 60+% of Indies you can bank on that.

[2016]

There won't be that Blue Tidal Tsunami Wave every Atlas Crat predicts - Period.

If that were the case why do Republicans then win the Governor Races in Vermont, New Hampshire, Maryland and Massachusetts. In a D-Wave Year like Atlas Crats are predicting Democrats should be competitive in those States and YET all four GOP Governors are cruising to Re-Election.

Once again, like they always do Democrats will go ballistic on Nov 6th despite only winning the House and a few Governorships where most even don't have an Republican Incumbent to run.

How sad is this place becoming with all these Democratic Spins.

[2016]

There won't be that Blue Tidal Tsunami Wave every Atlas Crat predicts - Period.

If that were the case why do Republicans then win the Governor Races in Vermont, New Hampshire, Maryland and Massachusetts. In a D-Wave Year like Atlas Crats are predicting Democrats should be competitive in those States and YET all four GOP Governors are cruising to Re-Election.

Same reason why SD-GOV is tied and Hedi is down big in ND-SEN. Governors race!=Senate races.

There is NO WAVE. A Democratic House Takeover was predicted for 6 months or so.

[2016]

Florida:

Republicans:  748,091 (42.7%)
Democrats:  694,923 (39.7%)
NPA/Minor: 308,461 (17.6%)
Totals: 1,751,451

As of this morning, Republicans lead by 53,168 (+3.03%, was 8.8% in 2014).

Yesterday, we were at 1,448.251, with the GOP holding an edge of 52,850 votes (+3.65%).

The day was pretty much a push.  Republicans narrowly one the in-person early voting, while Democrats won the VBM return.

Steve Schale blog

Schale is probably the only guy I can really trust. He nailed FL in 2008 & 2012 for Obama so to speak. In his Post yesterday he said FL will be close with Candidates having a 48/47 Floor Vote.

[2016]

Florida:

Republicans:  748,091 (42.7%)
Democrats:  694,923 (39.7%)
NPA/Minor: 308,461 (17.6%)
Totals: 1,751,451

As of this morning, Republicans lead by 53,168 (+3.03%, was 8.8% in 2014).

Yesterday, we were at 1,448.251, with the GOP holding an edge of 52,850 votes (+3.65%).

The day was pretty much a push.  Republicans narrowly one the in-person early voting, while Democrats won the VBM return.

Steve Schale blog

Schale is probably the only guy I can really trust. He nailed FL in 2008 & 2012 for Obama so to speak. In his Post yesterday he said FL will be close with Candidates having a 48/47 Floor Vote.

He also guaranteed a 4 point Clinton win because of muh HISPANIC SURGE™, so take what he says through a certain lense

He then admitted he was wrong and missed the Trump surge in the outer Tampa area and that there was no way to forecast what was going to happen on election day.

Also I've noticed that the partisan breakdown (R+3) is pretty close to what a lot of the polling samples are. This makes sense as NDA's (Puerto Ricans and young people) lean fairly strong to Democrats in Florida.

Then you haven't followed the Polls as of late my friend. SurveyUSA used a Partisan Model of D + 5 and CNN used D + 3. The only Pollster who has a R + 3 was Gravis so Nelson ahead beween 2-4 is probably about right.

These erratic D + .... Samples really ticked me off cuz that's never happened in a MidTerm in FL.

[2016]

We all know that reading too much into early voting can be a recipe for disaster, but I agree that there’s far more uncertainty this year than in previous midterm elections, especially due to the high turnout.

If I were Garcia/Sinema in AZ I would be worried. By the Time the weekend comes Republicans may very well have a 100K Advantage in Registration. Good Luck overcoming that. The Bottom Line is this: AZ is a Republican State. Heck, there is a reason Democrats haven't won a Senate Seat since 1988 and haven't won a Race for Governor since 2006.

[2016]

AZ Data Company "Data Orbital" who released a Poll last week showing Democrat Sinema up 5 admits their Poll was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

[2016]

Steve Schale is very excited:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1055979708129648645

LOL, Schale bragging about Orange County like it was still a "Swing County". It was from 2000-2006. Since then it has become Democratic County.

[2016]

AZ Data Company "Data Orbital" who released a Poll last week showing Democrat Sinema up 5 admits their Poll was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Don't understand why they didn't just poll using the sample they used for the governor race, it would be a lot cheaper and more efficient

Bottom Line: The moment they released that Poll I thought it was off. I'm not surprised Republicans coming home in AZ. Obviously Indies will decide that Race.

[2016]

Republicans are probably feeling a bit better in FL. Yesterday was a big Day for Democrats and they didn't make the most of it and so is today.

If Republicans still leading by tomorrow Morning and can withstand the Democratic Weekend Surge they're in decent shape.

All these Polls having Nelson/Gillum ahead by 6,7,8 Points are essentially a miss at this Point.

[2016]

Republicans only have a 2.81% lead in FL. Very weak lead for them compared to 2014. Especially when NPA's are between 55-45 to 60-40 Democratic (most young people and Puerto Ricans register as NPA's).

Republicans will have the biggest "GOTV Machine" on Wednesday when Trump will be in the State. You still underestimate Trumps GOTV credentials.

[2016]

A lot of NPAs in certain counties(I-4) are Latino but that's not true Statewide. I would prefer to see more energized turnout in Florida's big counties(Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) and have Gillum bank votes. Right now Republicans are banking the votes, the turnout in Lee(31.29%), Collier(27.58%), and Sumter(39.30%) is really good.

Nelson and Gillum have consistently polled 10-15 points better than their opponents with "Independents" - this is what is giving them a lead. Republicans tend to do much better in early vote in midterms in Florida, so if this is essentially even in registration, you have to feel good about their chances this year.

Where are the Polls to back this up then? Thus far I've seen only 2 Polls that have Nelson/Gillum having a 10-15 % lead with Indies....only CNN & Q-Pac have shown Nelson/Gillum having that big of a lead.

[2016]

On AZ:

You all should know that in AZ between 70-80% of the Vote will be cast early. Only 30% (maybe even less) will be Election Day Vote.

[2016]

Early vote so far for #PivotalSwingCounty of Pinellas, Florida

Yup, Indies will decide Senate & Governor in FL.